Opportunity Not To Be Missed
Andrew Steele gives six reasons why Liz May would be foolish not to run in the by-election for Bill Casey's Nova Scotia seat:
1. Bill Casey's 60% of support running as an independent means there's a large chunk of voters open to attract;
1. Bill Casey's 60% of support running as an independent means there's a large chunk of voters open to attract;
2. Casey might even campaign for May as the Greens didn't run a candidate against him in 2008 and he might like the idea of putting the antagonistic May directly in the path of Prime Minister Harper;
3. The riding of Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley - try saying that five times fast - is exactly the type of riding that the Greens should be targeting in their quest to elect someone (rural, close knit, open to non-traditional political choices);
4. May's shown commitment to running in Nova Scotia with her foolish decision to run against Peter Mackay in Central Nova, so running in the neighbouring riding shouldn't be seen as carpet bagging;
5. A by-election is probably the best chance for a new party to win a seat (see: Reform, Deb Gray/Bloc Quebecois, Gilles Duceppe) as the government isn't being decided and "goofy" results are more likely to occur; and finally,
6. The Greens consistent polling (even the low end of 3-4%) shows that the country is likely ready to elect a Green MP. It is just that there hasn't been the right convergence of events/situations to do so. Some people in the riding will see electing "The First Green" as a noble action.
I agree on most points strongly and the others at least tentatively (Bill Casey's motivations notwithstanding), and say this: Elizabeth May must run in this riding if she wants to show herself serious about the 2010 election. Running - and winning - the race should be a referendum on her leadership in the party. The Greens do not often get opportunities this positive for their fortunes and if they wish to because a permanent player in the Canadian political debate, they have got to show themselves capable of significant gain from time to time.
Getting into the debate was nothing compared to getting into the House. If May fails to see that (or shows herself unable to translate profile and personality into victory), then it will be time for the Greens to recognize her limitations as leader and move on.
Getting into the debate was nothing compared to getting into the House. If May fails to see that (or shows herself unable to translate profile and personality into victory), then it will be time for the Greens to recognize her limitations as leader and move on.
Lots of Greens have been debating these points ever since Casey announced he might be looking for a job:
http://greencanada.wordpress.com/2009/01/16/elizabeth-mays-by-election-promise-will-fortune-favour-the-bold/
The problem is that Casey is a PC/Independant, and with his departure, most of his loyal followers are going to be returning to the Tory fold. This is a by-election, so E-May has about as good a chance as is possible in the Maritimes, but there are safer seats for a general election run. Since the next time Elizabeth May faces the electorate WILL be a referendum on her Leadership, failure means the end of her brief career as GPC leader. She probably doesn't realise it yet, but she won't survive another expensive fiasco. If she declares early for CCMV, then she will be in a bit of a cleft stick if the general election comes first. How could she flip flop between CCMV, and say, Guelph? If she doesn't declare early, then her chances of winning the By get reduced accordingly. This is the problem with being 'genuine' and not scripting your public utterances. She committed to running in the first possible by-election,while also promising to run again in Central Nova in the next general. Then she backpedalled and claimed she didn't realise how important is was to actually win, so she'll maybe run wherever she can win. She is now negotiating a perilous path around her own public utterances. I'll be watching with interest to see which way the chips fall, and preparing for a leadership race in any event.
Posted by
greencanada |
1:04 PM