Hacks & Wonks

Two thoughts:

 

1) Readers know my position, but I find it ridiculous how many people are complaining that the subsidies are vital to democracy, but have never - and will never - donate even a single buck to a political party.  Real principled statement there.

 

2) Once again, I'm deeply unsettled by the attitude coming from some quarters that nothing of use can be done or created in Canadian life without the government being heavily involved. 

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But the biggest savings come in a cap imposed on equalization payments to the provinces — a deal that was agreed to by the provincial premiers earlier this month. The cap allows equalization payments to growth in tandem with nominal growth in the country's gross domestic product.

Instead of giving have-not provinces $16-billion next year and $20-billion the year after, Ottawa will instead hand over $14.2-billion next year and about $14.5-billion in 2010-2011. That's a savings of about $7-billion over two years.

The new plan "will bring fairness and stability to both the provinces and the federal government, while reflecting changes in the Canadian economy," Mr. Flaherty said.

The Chicken Wing Party of Manitoba

 

 

Did we already know about this?

(Oh yeah, be sure to read the fine print.)

Perimeter is something I've learned about thanks to Paul Wells' fascination with research for the sake of research. 

I'm sold.  When I run, championing research spending - both public and private funds - will be one of my pet projects.  The benefits are tremendous.

Sorry Gord, but this project is a good one and while a couple hundred residents are upset that their neighbourhood is changing, the additional high-density residential housing on a major transit line is exactly the type of development that should go ahead in the city.

And luck would have it, I've got a laptop again.

See you tonight at 6:30pm.

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The province re-announced a wind farm re-announcement today. Besides the fact that the company building the wind farm is dying a slow and painful death in the pages of every Australian newspaper, there were a few interesting things about the announcement:

First, there was no news, really, just a snazzy billboard and lotsa guys in blue suits gathered in one room for photos. We already knew there was going to be a 300 megawatt farm near St. Joseph built by Babcock & Brown and BowArk. There's still no power purchase deal in place, which would be real news. The province just wanted to stave of criticism that the project is slow-going.

Second, it was interesting that BowArk wasn't at the press conference, considering the project was their brainchild and they worked with many of the farmers on the land leases and were kind of the go-to guys for the reeves. BowArk recently expressed frustration at the slow pace of negotiations with Hydro.

Third, I wonder how the other wind companies like Sequoia and Canadian Hydro Developers - among the proponents of the 83 projects that got beat out by Babcock & Brown - feel about the St. Joseph project. Sequoia, a Manitoba company, has gone south for most of its work.

A savvy source sent me a recent report on alternative energy written by Scotia Capital, all about which green companies might be good to invest in. The Calgary-based Canadian Hydro won kudos, but the report notes that more than 1,000 megawatts of wind on the company's to-do list is in Manitoba.

"While the wind regime is strong in its Manitoba development regions, we don't see the company commissioning a substantial amount of wind power capacity in the province over the next five years," reads the report. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

You are losing me.

The majority of the programming on the station has not been interesting in months and months and that includes a federal election!

I still make a little bit of an effort to listen to Charles Adler's show in the afternoons, but Richard Cloutier has completely lost my interest in the mornings with his over-reliance on medical and family services-related stories.  And while I'm sure he's a nice fellow, I just don't find his personality interesting as a radio host.

The noon-hour show is okay, but the Wednesday morning "Know A Local Celeb" show is dull as dishwater.

And the drive show...Oh man, where to begin...The overabundance of traffic reports and the lack of a real "bring them in" host just lose me to CBC at 4:30pm once Fred Ketchum and The Bomber Report is completed.

 

The evening shows are enjoyable, some really good (anything Bob Irving, Geoff Currier's show and the Coach Potatoes), but I would imagine that prime time radio listening declines sharply.  You need people listening during the day and right now, I find myself ignoring the radio for hours on end.  It just sounds like it's targeted towards such an old audience.  Even the old institution of CBC Radio has moved towards attracting a younger audience and their recent strength in ratings is probably a reflection on that.

Now I feel I can bitch with some sway because I'm the exact type of listener 'OB needs to hang onto if they have a future in a satellite/internet/podcasting radio world.   I'm educated (mostly), with a moderate level of disposable income, nearing my thirties, huge news junkie with interests in politics and business and sports.   I've been listening to talk radio since I was 15 and I work in a job that allows for a radio on the desk all day long.

 

If I'm not your target audience for new listeners, who is?

I know that radio programming can't be an easy job, but it is easy to identify the problems at hand.  So long as I perceive that there are attempts to fix the problems, I'll keep listening.  But when there doesn't seem to be any format changes coming anytime soon, I'll be flipping over to CBC far more often.  (Or just turning it off altogether and what does that say about the quality of the content recently?)

1. How many days between today and when this newly announced wind farm actually breaks ground?

 

2. How many times does it get "announced" again before actually generating power? 

I think David Asper himself has actually read my site from time to time. I know people who can get this column to him definitely read H & W. Mr. Asper needs to read today's Bill Simmons column. [link]

That brewing disenfranchisement keeps popping up at these home games. You can not hear it, if that makes sense. And not just in New England. Thirteen teams have built SOTAS (state-of-the-art stadiums) since 1999; 14 if you include Daniel Snyder's overhauling of FedEx Field in 2004. Each stadium follows a similar let's-rake-in-the-cash blueprint. The first section of seats hug the field. At the top of those sections, the club seats start. That's followed by a phalanx of premium luxury suites. More luxury suites dominate the second section. And the majority of blue-collar fans are crammed into the upper decks. Fundamentally, it's a flawed way to cultivate a home-field advantage; beyond the emotional compromises and festering resentment of the blue-collar fans, the newer stadiums don't reverberate noise the same. Look at Lambeau or Ralph Wilson Stadium -- just rows and rows of fans, one after the other, rising for something like 75 rows before you hit your first luxury box. Watching the Browns-Bills game Monday night, I found myself enjoying the fans as much as the contest itself. Now this was football!

Winnipeg Stadium is just too damn open to really rock the players on the field, however moving to an enclosed stadium represents a once-every-fifty-years opportunity to re-establish Winnipeg as a truly inhospitable host to visiting teams Noise should be bouncing around and surrounding the players and fans. Just a real roar of power.

When they're selling you on designs Mr. Asper, ask them about sound. You'll thank yourself later.


[Update: Fixed the colour. Sorry about that. Playing around with some new varieties to mix it up a little bit, but that one was terrible.]

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Reviewing Chinese Democracy is not like reviewing music. It's more like reviewing a unicorn. Should I primarily be blown away that it exists at all? Am I supposed to compare it to conventional horses? To a rhinoceros? Does its pre-existing mythology impact its actual value, or must it be examined inside a cultural vacuum, as if this creature is no more (or less) special than the remainder of the animal kingdom? I've been thinking about this record for 15 years; during that span, I've thought about this record more than I've thought about China, and maybe as much as I've thought about the principles of democracy. This is a little like when that grizzly bear finally ate Timothy Treadwell: Intellectually, he always knew it was coming. He had to. His very existence was built around that conclusion. But you still can't psychologically prepare for the bear who eats you alive, particularly if the bear wears cornrows.

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Some comments:

- Are the voters having buyers' remorse?  Unlikely for reasons explained below, but we'll know better when the next poll is done in December.

- Check out the "Western Support"...CPC (52% ---> 38%) and Lib (16% ---> 27%)...Anyone want to bet a quarter that these are accurate reflections of voter preference in the west?  The lion's share of the swing comes from this column and does anyone feel that Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae or Dominic LeBlanc will be able to grow Liberal fortunes in the West?  Maybe a little, but by that much? 

 

- (Though it wouldn't surprise me in the least if there are a few Tories like myself who are annoyed at the deficit talk by the Tories, so maybe, just maybe, a few of the points are an accurate swing.)

 

- Ontario is also kinda interesting as well, and it's nothing but spin coming from Kinsella when he writes that the Nanos poll bodes well for "Prime Minister Ignatieff".  CPC (36% ---> 39%) and Lib (36% ---> 34%).  The road back to a Liberal minority goes through Ontario and they'll need much stronger numbers than these to do it.  (They cannot get a majority in the foreseeable future.)

 

- As an aside, Kinsella is right about this though: "UPDATE: And more. Ask John McCain how this kind of stuff works out for the incumbent party."

(I still hold out hope that Harper and Flaherty are doing the "sell low expectations then beat them" game on deficits.)

 

- The Liberals are going to poll a point or two higher than their actual support between now and their leadership race.  So long as "anyone" can be leading them into the next election, people will project their preferred leadership candidate into that spot.  Once a leader is set in place, their number will settle back to their actual polling position.

- "We now return you to regularly scheduled Green Party non-election support already in progress."

Financial Post: Throne Speech sets out plan for national securities regulator

The provinces will buck, but this is a worthwhile fight.  From a practical point of view, most provincial regulators already take their lead from the Ontario system.  Provincial regulation on securities is an anachronism in today's global investment world.

Been thinking about it for awhile, and I believe I've been sold on the notion of turning the zoo into a niche animal conservatory with the polar bears as an anchor and then Manitoba/Northern climate animals as the filler.  I'm even willing to support "a goodly chunk" of dollars going towards such a conversion.

In the end, I just don't believe that an all-encompassing zoo is possible on a Winnipeg budget and let's be honest, seeing a camel up close had more mystique to it in 1978 than it does in 2008.

But the polar bears are still a hook and better yet, they are a "Manitoban hook".  I've written about the need to figure out our identity and they are a big part of it.  Plus, with their numbers in Manitoba in flux, this type of conservatory would allow them to remain a part of our identity even if their habitat moves north for a century or two.

That's how long it took for me to receive an update on the Speaker Vote. 

 

You guys rock.  Thanks.

(Head's Up Curtis.  I'm Going To Ask You About This Tonight.)

 

So the Conference Board Of Canada says:

Saskatchewan and Manitoba will buck the global economic downturn and post strong economic growth this year and next, according to a new forecast released by the Conference Board of Canada on Thursday.

The Ottawa-based business think-tank said the two Prairie provinces will post GDP and employment growth much better than the Canadian average.

And...

Manitoba, while expanding at a slower clip than its western neighbour, still should post GDP growth of 2.7 per cent this year and 2.4 per cent in 2009.

Look, I don't like it.  I've had to switch my economic attacks from "They're bad for the economy" to "They've wasted once in a generation opportunities with the economy" and that second one is clunky and wonkish and only appeals to those like myself that knows that the NDP have squandered a golden opportunity to grow the Manitoba economy on something other than transfer payments and public projects.  They've made Manitoba more dependent on revenue streams we do not directly control.  I can only imagine the potential for Manitoba had the last nine years been spent with a real economic growth agenda as the goal.  

Nonetheless, the proof is in the pudding.  Grinning Gary has keep Manitoba's financial picture stronger than most. 

But explain to me this: how does 2+ per-cent growth translate into the need to run a deficit? 

Now the reason I pick on Curtis above is because I picked a fight with him on the topic a couple of weeks ago.  (And because I love picking fights.)  My point then - one still relevant today - is that there was no metric available that suggested Manitoba was heading for the kind of historic troubles being bandied about.  In fact, the more reports that come out, the more it suggests that Manitoba is not going to stop growing during this economic storm. 

And if there's not going to be a provincial recession, how can anyone still argue for a deficit?

Sure, the NDP won't be able to grow the budget by the 6-9% they've grown accustomed to over recent years, but did anyone ever believe that such growth was sustainable?  Are we really going to give Gary Doer twelve years of free reign on spending...Never to make a cut or even a "hold your line" decision?

Make him earn his deficit if he wants it so bad.  Let him lay out the economic argument that says Manitoba is lagging and will need the extra help.

Everything coming out says he can't do it.

The partisan in me hates that.  The policy guy begrudgingly accepts it.

I always have a tough time with the criticism that the Tories are just a group of elite, close-minded and close-circled people that don't let outsiders move up the ranks within the parties.

The reason I have difficulty with this so-called criticism is that I'm the perfect example of how untrue it is.

My folks weren't "Big Tories".  Dad once attended a nomination meeting back in the 50s, but only because a local fellow from Sandy Lake was running for the nomination.  (He lost that nomination to a guy from Minnedosa named Weir.)  After that, my father never got involved until I started dragging him along to breakfast fundraisers almost forty years later.

My hometown had a few older Conservatives that encouraged me along, but no one can say there was an established local organization to drag me into it.

No, I just got involved by showing up.  Attended my first national convention over ten years ago when Ryan Craig called me up in January '98 and invited me along to support his bid for the national youth presidency.  (One of my all-time favorite convention memories came immediately upon my arrival to Ottawa on the first night.  I stood in a hotel room bathroom and watched Ryan's younger brother Colin dispense bottles from a hundred-dollar case of beer that a couple of Jean Charest's aids had purchased from the hotel.  Thing was, the hotel demanded normal hotel prices.  Yes, that was only twenty-four beers.  $96.  Less than two minutes of stock considering how fast the future Taxpayers Federation rep gave them out.)

And ever since then, I just made an effort to show up and try to get involved.  And slowly but surely, my circles expand and with each subsequent provincial election or national convention, I find myself in increasingly fun situations.

Like this morning at the Conservative Club breakfast.  I had the great forture of spending  fifteen to twenty minutes seated at a table with two cabinet ministers, our guest speaker Monte Solberg (no slouch himself) and a pair of rookie MPs coming fresh off of big victories last month.  These are the days when it's legitimately difficult to contain my inner politics nerd.

Didn't get much of a chance to speak with Steven Fletcher, however Heritage Minister - and former Solberg staffer - James Moore was willing to talk a bit of shop and both Ed Holder, the new MP from London, along with Peter Weston from the BC riding formerly held by John Reynolds, were quite engaging and appeared full of energy as befits a brand spanking new MP.

Monte Solberg gave a great speech, both entertaining and thoughtful, and the room was full of out-of-province guests that I'll admit I did a poor job of recognizing.  (Including Dr. Roy from Montreal, who I'm sure I'll speak with again this weekend.)

I'm now definitely in convention mode. 

Been busy lately with some private stuff (sorry Curtis, I completely pooched our planned blog-et-blog regarding the convention by not responding to your Thursday post), so my planned Blue Bomber Post-Mortem was still to come.  With Doug Berry being fired this morning, I'll be re-assessing my strategy because giving Coach Berry one more year was the cornerstone of my plan for 2009.*

My thinking: Football is a systems game and one bad year failure should not indict a system.  Also, right from Day One, Coach Berry wanted a power running back and only got his preferred type of back midway through this season.  (And by all appearances, the power back was just what the team doctor ordered.)

 

I'm more prone to throw Kevin Glenn under the bus than the head coach, but what's done is done.  I feel for the Coach because he's probably a better coach than this season represented.  Remember, much of his grief these seasons has been the issues with Westwood (not his fault the GM didn't bring in someone better two year ago), injuries (Glenn missing Grey Cup) and a lack of leadership from his quarterback.   (As an aside, that has to be a big part of my sourness with Glenn...His refusal to step up and put the team on his shoulders.  Sure, he's only 29, but if he's not going to 'lead' than it's time for him to move on.  The "He's good enough to get you beat," feels too accurate to shake.)

As far as the coaching situation, look to Defensive Coordinator and perennial head coach bridesmaid Greg Marshall to finally be given the promotion he missed out on three years ago.  I'm happy with that, however I demand that they bring in a decent offensive coordinator and stop forcing the QBs to call the game.  QBs should have options, but they shouldn't be calling the shot.

 

 

 

 

 

[Link]

 

May: Green Party Was "Unprepared" For Election

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Wind megawatts as of July 2008

Manitoba: 104

Saskatchewan: 171

Alberta: 524

Ontario: 521

Quebec: 422

North Dakota: 517

Minnesota: 1377

-- Sources: Canadian Wind Energy Association, American Wind Energy Association

[Link]

 

"CentreVenture wants to bring more homes, restaurants and businesses to South Point Douglas by expanding the definition of downtown to include the gritty, inner-city neighbourhood."

 

 

The Conservative Club of Manitoba is happy to follow up last month's successful Dan Lett luncheon with a breakfast during the lead up to next weekend's convention! Former Minister of Human Resources and Medicine Hat MP Monte Solberg has graciously changed his travel arrangements to deliver the address and I couldn't be happier. Monte was always a longtime favorite MP and helped show conservatives across the land that Reform MPs were a lot like PC MPs and that you could support both.

Monte also showed how useful a well written blog could be an asset for an opposition politician. It provided a depth to his character and endeared him to thousands of readers, both supporters and non-supporters alike.

It was a shame to see him leave the government, but it'll be a boon to those of us missing his analysis of the day. The pundit world benefits from his re-arrival on the scene.

As usual, the Conservative Club events are open to those interested and we just ask that you let us know if you plan on attending so we can get a headcount. Email me if interested.

What: Conservative Club of Manitoba Presents Monte Solberg
When: 7:30 am Thursday, November 13th

Where: Norwood Inn, St. Boniface
Price: $20 (and you're not just getting fruit and pastry for that $20 like at some breakfasts)

If you are a delegate coming to town the night before, what better way to start the first day of the convention?

Prime Minister Harper:

Speaking after a meeting with an economic think-tank in Toronto, Harper said he was given a direct message.

He says he was told: "Don't be afraid to run a deficit if the deficit is in the best interest of the economy."

Where was the deference to economists when it came to the GST cut or the diesel fuel tax cut yet to come?

Mary Agnes Welch:

Last night, when ABC cut away from their Obama coverage to allow WDAZ to weigh in on the local races, a reporter did little filler hits with some North Dakota pols. I think it was Sens. Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan, who both kind of look the same under the low-budg WDAZ lights.

Anyway, both Democrats were asked what the next president's top priority should be come January. Both said energy and reducing American dependence on foreign oil. Not the economy. Not Iraq. Energy.

So if that's the case, why have Manitoba Hydro's green energy sales to the United States been kind of small scale? Why aren't we building a bajillion wind farms and dams and running transmission lines across every inch of the border, pumping power into the mid-west?

In a word (or a couple of words to be more precise)...Crown Corporation.

Let's face it, crown utilities are never going to be truly aggressive to maximize growth potential and increase revenues. The mandate of the a crown is usually to "cover the basics" and "don't be a problem".

Tough to become a North American player with that type of direction. (And frankly, with that type of government interference....think Bi-Pole and the hundreds of millions of dollars wasted and the energy security squandered by bunching the lines on the West Side*.)

But alas, we can't have the Manitoba Hydro debate in Manitoba in an intellectual manner. Nevermind that the MTS privatization was a smashing success story, people are still mostly hung up on Hydro and the thought that someone might make a little profit from carrying a lot of risk.

So Hydro's not going to be the leader of energy growth in Manitoba. Let's just acknowledge that fact, accept it and move on.

But why should they retain the monopoly of energy development in Manitoba? Wouldn't a little competition - and most importantly, private investment money - be a good thing for Manitoba?

Critics of mine always defend our Have Not status by suggesting that without oil, Manitoba shouldn't be expected to grow and prosper in the energy sector, but the way we develop our energy is haphazard and poor. We'll gladly allow private investment in windmills, but not hydro line development. We'll hand over a portion of private ownership in a dam to First Nations groups, but refuse potential billions in outside Manitoba private investment.

Can anyone explain to me the logic of this?

Manitoba Hydro's debtload is to the point where rapid damn investment just isn't practical. I've got a buddy who works for Hydro and he sometimes supposes that after this next wave, there won't ever be anymore hydro dam development in the province due to the costs, the insane time commitments and the politics of dam-building.

With Saskatchewan considering building a nuclear plant themselves, I have to begin to wonder if my friend is correct. Doesn't it feel like our window to expand Hydro into an energy giant is closing somewhat as the politics or energy and the environment is going to send many jurisdictions into the warm embrace of nuclear?

But our leadership is whistling past the graveyard as economic and energy conditions continue to get gloomier for Manitoba's potential economic prosperity.

Nice, eh?

* - This reminds me of a story I heard last summer. When the forest fires were raging on the west side, ash collected on the lines, making them heavier and bending them towards the ground. At one point, the electricity arced and started shorting out. This in turn led to a bit of trouble compensating and Manitoba Hydro just didn't have the power to deliver down south. Problem was, that Minnesota's contingency plan, as mandated by the U.S. government, required them to carry a certain percentage of reserves be available at all times. Manitoba Hydro's contributions were a big part of those reserves.

The fire and ash and arcing and sudden power loss resulted in a large drop below the U.S. required reserves and as such, last year's fire ended up having ramifications all the way to Washington.

And how does Gary Doer treat Manitoba Hydro? As a plaything, a novelty toy for his pleasure. Sure the dollars and the safety and common sense point to Bi-Pole III on the west east [* - yeah, I pooched it this morning] side, thus spreading out the risk of another forest fire impact, but that's not going to win anyone any Sierra Club accolades, right?

Randy Turner has a great column on the election of Obama from the perspective of some Blue Bombers:

I'll always remember the first time Milt Stegall referred to his then-newborn son Chase as "the first black president of the United States."

Someone nearby chuckled.

Stegall took notice.

"I'm not joking," he insisted, with a purposeful stare that only Stegall and Mark Messier can muster.

Then along came Barack Obama. So Stegall had to improvise. Does it on the football field all the time. So on a piece of tape over his locker, beside a picture of Chase, the Bomber slotback wrote "second black president of the United States?"

Yes, there was a question mark.

Until Tuesday night, at least, when the son of a Kenyan father and a Kansan mother -- literally an African-American -- was elected president of the United States.

"That's a good thing," the Bombers' elder statesman said. "It's just a blessing to see where we came from. My father was born in 1922 in rural Georgia. And he used to tell me about some of the things that used to go on (racism-wise). A lot of people don't realize that as an African-American we weren't even able to vote until 1965.

"It's only been 50 years that we've been allowed to vote and now we have a president of African descent," Stegall added. "It says a lot about the country and the direction it's going in. It's not the way it should be but it's not where we used to be."

 

Doing an Angus Reid survey at the moment.  The Liberal leadership options given are:

Dominic LeBlanc

Gerard Kennedy

John Manley

Scott Brison

Michael Ignatieff

Bob Rae
Other (fill in name)

 

I put Martha Hall Finley in the slot, but I found the list of name choices worth noting.

 

I started squaring up my US Presidential wagers about a month ago.  Obama is going to win tonight.  It's cost me a little bit of money and beer from bets places back in the winter when the nominees weren't even set in place yet.  (Though one bet was only active should Obama secure the nomination.)

If I was an American, he'd probably have my vote as well.  (Though I would begin tomorrow on searching for a strong Republican contender to support for 2012.)

I still believe President Obama is going to be an overall failure as president, however I can no longer stick by McCain as he hasn't exactly presented himself as the steady hand he wanted to be, his choice of Palin as Veep was an unmitigated disaster, and in the end, he's just not a likable guy anymore.

 

Barack Obama is going to stumble under the weight of his expectations.  And those that love him the most this time around are going to be the hardest to motivate in 2012.  It's the way of the world when you give your heart to a pol and you get burned.

The Republicans also need the time out to figure out what they want to be.  Their next presidential candidate will be important.  I throw this name out for consideration:

Christine Todd Whitman

 

I don't like his politics and have low expectation for his presidency, however Barack Obama's victory tomorrow is historic.

 

It's a real shame his grandmother passed away earlier today and won't get to see it.

 

Gotta say, in ten years plus of national convention attendance, this will be my first in Winnipeg - as I wasn't yet heavily involved and missed the somewhat notable 1995 PC convention - and I can't say I'm as excited for the simple fact that it is in Winnipeg.   I just know that the buzz I always develop upon arrival at a convention city just isn't going to be there.  I guess that is to be expected, but still disappointing nonetheless considering this is the first shin dig in three and a half years and knowing the party's M.O. under Harper, probably the only one between now and spring 2011.  I'm going through major convention withdrawal here!

Though that said, I'm sure the other Debbie Downer aspect of the upcoming party party is that there just isn't anything of meaning to really discuss.  Policy sorted itself out in Montreal and in the elections.  Leadership has sorted itself out over the last couple of years.  I haven't heard if there's going to be another youth wing debate, which led to some fun in 2005 including a hilarious plenary chair-defying speech by Tony Clement, but at this point such a low-impact debate would be desired, even amongst the no-longer-get-to-be-called-"youth" crowd like myself.  It would provide something of interest for us during the two main days of the con.

 

It's a bit of a shame that the Prime Minister has to speak and dash on the 13th, but no one's going to hold his choosing to be in Washington for the economic summit over chilling in a Winnipeg hotel room for the weekend.   Plus, the opening night should carry some celebratory feeling as this is the first time the gang is getting together since we formed government in 2006 and built upon the minority last month.  I fully expect to hear some Kool & The Gang during that night. 

Because it is worthwhile to celebrate how far we've come along.  I can still remember a long drive home from the August 2002 PC Convention in Edmonton, and the idea of a right(ish)-wing government was so far off the radar, it would have brought a true believer to tears.  (Not this true-believer per se, but other truer-believers surely.)

Here we are, six-years later, having governed for three and just on the threshold of a majority despite operating in a fractured electoral system that had it been like this historically, at least three-quarters of the successful Prime Ministers of the past would have failed themselves to get their majorities.  143 is not a defeat.

And the signs for growth remain positive.  Expanding vote in traditionally Liberal ethnic communities.  Better beachheads and positive signs in Toronto and Vancouver (though Montreal still eludes us).  The Liberals already in debt and going into another leadership race while their caucus continues to shrink and their once-powerful organization continues to withe anywhere outside of Toronto and Montreal.

These are good things if you are a Conservative.

Sure, a majority might have been kicking around for a brief while during the campaign, but so was the prospect of my winning $278 on Pro Line yesterday until Jacksonville dropped a deuce and let winless Cincinnati upset them.  Things happen during a football game that changes expected outcomes and things happen during elections that change expected outcomes.  To borrow the cliche, this is why we play the game.  

 

(I do note that I have a difficult time with the pundits who began the campaign saying that the best the Tories could hope for is a strong minority suddenly getting hot and bothered about a near miss on a majority that said pundits didn't even have the foresight to predict as possible only five weeks earlier.)

 

Finally, my only real question going into next next-weekend is who will be given the prime speaking gigs at the show.  The party usually tries to use speaking slots as a way to build profile for new and existing stars and who gets the tap on the shoulder is telling.  Minister John Baird is on the record saying that he made his decision to run federally while looking out at the cheering delegates from the podium during an address on opening night in 2005.  I imagine some of the brand new rookie Cabinet ministers will be up there - if Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq isn't one of the podium people, I'll eat my delegate tag.  I'd also ask Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall to give an address as a right-wing Premier from the west.  Maybe Nova Scotia's Rodney McDonald too. 

 

I have no idea who will deliver a "Quebec address" though.  Do you Curtis?

 

Roy MacGregor:

Try this one on for size.

If Canadians only could vote in tomorrow's U.S. election, Barack Obama might take upward of 90 per cent of the vote.

Yet if Obama were a Canadian and running for office in this country, voters might well put the boots to him for being so damn full of himself.