Saturday, August 30

You Know What Insults My Intelligence More Than Prime Ministers Who Call Elections When It Suits Their Timing In A Minority Gov't?

Opposition leaders who spend weeks and months telling anyone with a microphone that they plan to bring the Government down, only to suddenly play the "woe-is-me victim" card the minute an election actually looks like it will happen.

That insults my intelligence more.

Much more.

Friday, August 29

I'll Admit, It Makes Me Feel A Little Better About My Instincts

Paul Wells makes a point.

Sarah Palin

Funny enough, I first heard her name back in January from a buddy in Minnesota.  Checked out her credentials.  Checked out her pictures (beautiful lady).  Checked out her history.

Not bad, I thought.  Potential is there.

But she's only just become Governor of Alaska.  Needs more time.

So while she remained on the shortlist, I never really expected it to be her until 2012 or 2016 when I expected her to be a frontrunner.  I knew she'd be in Minneasota next week, but I figured she'd be speaking on Tuesday.  Maybe Wednesday....on the undercard.

Instead, she's getting the ticket.  Well hey, it's taking a chance, but in this campaign John McCain needs to take a chance or two.

What you need to know about Sarah Palin:
 
- She's 44.

- Outdoors woman.  Used to hunt moose with her dad.  Knows her way around a snowmobile.
 
- Has a son in the military headed for Iraq soon.
 
- Has another child with Downs Syndrome.
 
- Pro-life.  (Probably for obvious reasons.)

- She plays well with the conservative issues that McCain does not.
 
- She's seen as someone who fights pork and corruption.
 
- She has a minor "scandal" that you'll hear about.  She apparently fired a civil servant for reasons not quite explained.  There is an investigation, but another friend who lives in Alaska suggest it's much ado about nothing and that she'll actually come out of any debate on the topic looking quite well.
 
- Supposedly a good debater/speaker.  (We'll find out on Wednesday about the second part.)
 
- The biggest knock that I see will be the fear that McCain is going to pass in office (oldest non-incumbent/cancer survivor) and that Palin isn't ready for the big job.

Overall, this is an interesting and likable choice.  I think the Republicans have somehow managed to give themselves their absolutely best shot at holding the White House under tough tough circumstances.

Going to be a fun nine weeks.

Guess It Wasn't To Be

History


Many Canadians feel smug about our tolerant attitudes when put up in comparison with those of our neighbours to the south. I'm even guilty of the tacky and self-righteous habit myself from time to time.

But I also strongly wonder if an aboriginal will lead a contending national party into a Canadian Federal Election within my lifetime.

And I'm only twenty-nine.

I'm hopeful that it could take place. We've seen other minorities lead parties and provinces, however I have to wonder about how far we are when it comes "to the natives and the Indians".

Which is also why, no matter how much I disagree with his baseline politics or question his ability to deliver upon his message, last night's nomination of Barack Obama as the Democratic Presidential Candidate is a fundamentally important evening for the United States of America.

He really does represent the new face and the new image of race politics in America. He puts past historical grievances behind him for the most part. That is an important first step towards winning the day and finally being in a situation to do something about them. (Our aboriginal leadership up here should take note.)

Barack Obama also shows that there is still a chance for optimism and faith in the political world. Quite honestly, the last thirty years have been about beating those positive qualities out of the electorate. About driving the average voter towards cynicism and disgust.

And yet people still want to believe. They still want to hope.

They still want to give a politician the benefit of the doubt.

Honestly, I'm just a little amazed that it's still possible at all to get an average joe to buy-in like this, but Barack Obama shows that it is possible.

I still believe that it's 50/50 as to how the election goes. The fact that Obama - with all his advantages - hasn't been able to put away John McCain is telling. Just as he was barely able to put away Hillary Clinton in the primaries was telling. A few missteps and the "momentum" dies.

I believe he is avoiding debates for good reason.

But no matter what happens in November, it cannot possibly change the importance of his nomination. It cannot change that his race has become, for the most part, irrelevant.

And how can we as a civilized world not applaud that development?

* * * * *

The John McCain congratulations ad plays marvelously. This is exactly the note I would strike had I been advising him. A sense of humour and a sense of humility will treat the best politicians of the 21st century well.

Open Question To Mary Agnes Welch:

How can you write:

The riding is probably the safest NDP seat in the country, next to former leader Alexa McDonut's Halifax seat.

...And then go to say:

...Transcona could be the sleeper riding to watch.

...In the exact same blog post and not realize that the two statements are an inherent contradiction? Unless, of course, you really think that the federal NDP can potentially fall to only a single seat in the upcoming election...

Only your second statement has a factual base.

Though truth be told, the post's overall thesis isn't bad. It's actually bang on. The NDP really have hurt themselves in E-T.

Still....The paradox of being super safe - yet threatened - deserves a shake of the head, no?

(Besides Mary Agnes...Do you really believe that Elmwood-Transcona is that much safer than Pat Martin's Winnipeg Centre or Judy Alphabet's Winnipeg North?)

Thursday, August 28

Congrats Colin & Brandi

It's a boy!  Here's hoping Cooper can throw an out-turn better than his old man.  Our team might finally make the A-side.


No Joke, Thanks A Lot Curtis.

[link]


PS: I want to study the sale of water. I believe if we look at it honestly, we'll decide to proceed with it. That said, I'm completely open to the possibility that such a study and debate could convince me otherwise.

Please Be A Bad Club! Please Be A Bad Club!

TSN is reporting that someone's offered to sign Ottawa Senators Restricted Free Agent Defenceman Andrej Meszaros to a $5 million per year offer sheet.    I like Meszaros and we need the d-men, but the pair of 1st Round picks, plus a 2nd and a 3rd is pretty tempting as compensation.  

I'm hoping for Columbus. 

CJOB Contest Update

Down to the final four candidates tomorrow morning and I'm still not in.  Got to be honest, if I'm not one of the four names said tomorrow morning at 7:10am, I'll be disappointed.  Had to think that the blog would be my ticket in, but starting to wonder about that...

Wednesday, August 27

Hack To Curtis: No

Doesn't this also beg the following question: if anyone other than Stephen Harper was leading the Conservative Party right now, would they not be in a position to hope for more than a mere minority?

[link]

Besides, the same people giving absolutely no chance for a majority are the same folks who thought he was dead meat defeating Martin in December '05. The campaign will matter.

The Long View

I would wager that Tom Flanagan is right on the money concerning the Prime Minister's thinking.  I also believe that it will work like a charm.

"I don't think Harper has to be thinking about a majority at all," Mr. Flanagan said in an interview.

"Strategically, this is sort of a prolonged war of attrition."

As Mr. Flanagan sees it, the first major battle in this incremental war occurred in 2004, when Mr. Harper managed to reduce Paul Martin's Liberals to a minority. In the second clash in 2006, Mr. Harper won his own Conservative minority.

The third skirmish, which Mr. Harper appears set to launch next week, likely won't kill what Mr. Flanagan jokingly refers to as "the evil empire." But, if the Tories can win a few more seats at the Liberals' expense — an outcome Mr. Flanagan considers realistic given Mr. Harper's superior campaign skills and the Tories' fatter war chest — he predicted that would be enough to throw the Grits into a long-term tailspin that could eventually lead to their demise.

"You can fight a war with some objective less than total victory," he said of the coming campaign.

If the Liberals lose even a handful of seats, Mr. Flanagan predicted they'll immediately dump Leader Stéphane Dion, a forecast echoed privately by plenty of Grits. The party would have to embark on a costly leadership campaign before most contenders from the last contest, including Mr. Dion, have paid off their leadership debts.

Moreover, a reduction in popular vote would mean the already cash-strapped Liberal party would get less money in election expenses rebates and in its annual public subsidy. Mr. Flanagan said that could make it difficult for the Liberals to pay off any debts from the coming election campaign and harder to secure bank loans for a future campaign.

Hence, he concluded, another Tory minority "would be enough to throw the Liberals into turmoil and give Harper . . . a virtually free hand in Parliament for quite a while and really handicap his main opponent."

 
Never forget, the Prime Minister has given himself a personal mission to reset the natural course of Canadian politics.  As petty and small as his actions sometimes appear to be, he really is looking at the long term picture of replacing the Liberals as the country's default party.

 

A Hunch

Don Martin might be getting played

Let's Discuss This Before Another Opportunity Is Missed

We might not want to proceed with water exports.  
 
However if Manitoba continues to pretend that the debate on the issue is never going to occur, when it does become a front headline issue, other provinces will already be lined up to lead the way and capitalize on the growth ahead of us. 
 
Another rare opportunity for Manitoba to be a global leader - rather than just another provincial follower - will have once again passed us by.

(The debate is 100%, without-a-doubt, take-it-to-the-bank going to happen.  You may want to fight water exports and that's cool.  I think you're wrong, but you get to be wrong.  Just better start preparing your arguments now so that they're a little stronger than the outdated sovereignty/jingoistic criticisms expressed in the past.)

Tuesday, August 26

Tee It Up

Since the Governor General's going to be in town next week, it is safe to say that the Prime Minister will pay her a visit.   I'll wait until the writ finally drops to make a few detailed predictions, but here's the jist:  Tories up, Liberals down, NDP up, Greens *crickets*.

No majority.

Monday, August 25

Like The Weather Of Manitoba...

Calgary Grit says, "Wait ten minutes."

Brandon Bids For Memorial Cup

[link]

Up against Kelowna and Everett, WA. Could be tough sledding, but the Wheats are due and have been a proud junior hockey franchise. Might need to play games out of the MTS Centre in Winnipeg to really make it work, but I would have to think that is doable, right?

Well-Look-At-That! Update: Post's up less than an hour and already received a few Westman emails. Turns out the Keystone Centre really is going to be the host site, with the province and city already guaranteeing some expansion money should the bid be successful.

I'm on the record: They win that bid, I'm taking a week off work and parking myself at the Cable Box.

Five Things I Learned This Weekend

1. Some women really do carry pit stick to the bar in order to freshen up whilest dancing.  (And in general, that the Silver Spike in Transcona is a fun bar.)
 
2. The Kokanee Ranger's fate was decided.
 
3. "Hard Sun" is not an Eddie Vedder original, but an Eddie Vedder cover.
 
4. My first fantasy football league is likely switching to auction format and I cannot be more thrilled.
 
5. While I am still betting on a fall election soonish, that there is a better than even chance that all the speculation is for naught and there will be governing as per usual. 

Saturday, August 23

Number Of Times "Manitoba" Appears In Canadian Business Magazine's "Special Energy Issue" Out Now: Zero

Methinks that after nine years, Hydro Development is getting scratched off Gary Doer's legacy list. (Unless you count the unforgivably incorrect choice to force Bi-Pole III down the west side.)

Friday, August 22

No One Remind Jack Of What He Said...

"Prime Minister Stephen Harper would be "misguided" if he chose to call a federal election before Parliament resumes sitting on Sept. 15, NDP Leader Jack Layton said Thursday."
 

...Just three weeks ago:

The Calgary Sun - NDP wants fall election

OTTAWA -- NDP Leader Jack Layton says his party used every tool in the ... a general election and we don't intend to stop now," Layton said yesterday during ...
calsun.canoe.ca/News/National/2008/07/29/6295061-sun.html - Similar pages - Note this

The Olympic Spirit Is Alive And Well In This Photo Gallary

Prepare to waste the next ten minutes guys.

Beach Volleyball Picture Gallary.  [S?FW]

Over To You 'OB

Submitted my application just now.  Guess I'll find out next week if I'm in or not.

Thursday, August 21

Manitoba Ambition

Great line Graham:

You can't just BUILD something and claim that it is "world class." It takes time for the rest of the world to come to that conclusion for you.

Manitoba's Best Gold Course Digs

The SCOREGolf Top 100 is out. Here's how we did:

96. Pine Ridge Golf Club - Main Course (1912)

Wow. Only one stinkin' course. Five off the bottom of the list.
Glad I don't swing the clubs too often.

Did get to play the Kananaskis Country Golf Course (Mount Kidd) (#27) four years ago on a bachelor party roadtrip and it didn't beat me up too badly. Pretty awesome setting to play in as well.

Yes I See It Too

The source material of the most recent post juxtapositions nicely with the one before it. I'll come back to comment on the issue again.

BTW Update: Very excellent and longish comment from Brian in the original post. It's going to be my leaping off point on the next round of arts' posts. The punchline:
The bottom line is that using a few outrageous examples to manipulate the discussion so they can advance their agenda with their base is not good government. Might be good politics, but not good government.

Good thing we're talking politics here and not good government.

Can't Necessarily Disagree, But It's Probably Good To Hear Some Non-Manitoba Perspectives On It

Macleans columnist makes comment on the Human Rights Museum:

Brother D, I'm curious. Where do you stand on the money that the government has pledged to the Canadian Human Rights Museum? Given that its own consultations have shown that few Canadians plan to visit it - at least, not the bricks-and-mortar building itself in Winnipeg, isn't this a perfect example of a program "that very few Canadians will ever use"?


To be fair, she's challenging someone else and is not slagging the HRMC just yet, but the lady makes an interesting point, right?



Tuesday, August 19

Arts Funding (New & Improved)

I know there is quite a bit of gnashing of teeth over the Tories cuts towards culture spending, but my hunch is that these cuts are temporary. Wouldn't surprise me if the play here is to cut the programs where the gov't doesn't like or trust the selection process, only to turn around during the next federal election and announce a return of a "new and improved" series of programs with even a few more bucks added to the mix.

The arts community are not Tory supporters, so the short term pain is relatively minor. Over the long term, the Tories manage to tweak a source of funding often directed exclusively towards their opponents.


Update: Dan Lett riffs on my post:
I agree with the basic analysis, but will disagree with the assessment of the potential harm. Pissing off groups that don’t support you is a great strategy if you have a majority government. But if you’re in a minority position, and seem to be unable to find traction toward a majority, it seems to be bad strategy to go around poking your traditional opponents in the eye. It’s going to take a major breakthrough in Ontario and Quebec to get the Tories over the minority hump, and I just can’t see how messing with arts funding is going to turn the tide in either of those provinces. However, the Hs&Ws post was very brief, and I assume (with good cause) there is more to the thesis.


Well, not hugely because really there isn't too much more to it. Dan and I just have to disagree on the impact of the arts community on the voters-at-large. The Tories operate on a "winnable voters" strategy - targeting those who would consider voting CPC - and when it comes right down to it, the arts community are generally just too closed-minded to the idea of electing a Conservative, no matter what program was offered on the table or enhanced or created. Just like Zoe, your average arts group devotee or disciple is just not a voter who can be brought on board a wider conservative coalition.

As a party, we have to be honest about that right now.

Dan, if you disagree with that assessment, ask your colleague Morley Walker what it would take to bring him around to my party. I'm sure the price is high enough that even you will concede that Stephen Harper needs to look beyond the Free Press arts beat reporter to find his majority.

And the thing is, the Prime Minister is looking elsewhere. So the question is not how the arts community funding announcements are going to play within the affected communities, but how does it play within larger, more broader-minded, groups of voters?

I'd argue...Not much. Especially if I'm correct that there will be a specific day during the campaign when replacement programs will be announced. Make sure they are about 5-10% higher in overall spending and the average middle class, suburban voter is likely to forget about whatever noise the arts communities are making about these cuts in the first place. In the end, this is a story that is background noise at best to most voters.

Dan also wrote, "I have always believed that voters in this country, by and large, don’t want politicians to decide what kind of art is worthy of public support. Could be wrong."

Not wrong necessarily, just projecting a little too much. There's a lot of art that the public would gladly want the government stepping in on. Think dead rabbits in the park or menstrual blood Jesus or something of that sort. We always hear about these stories from time to time and almost universally the chattering class asks the question on polls and call-in shows and in man on the street interviews and almost universally, the public says, "Yeah, we like freedom in arts and such, but that's just a little too much."

Now sure, we're not talking about programs that only cover art some might find squeamish. We're also talking about the Royal Winnipeg Ballet, various authors of small-run novels and any assortment of musical acts. And at least lately, we're discussing funding that would send them abroad to act as the face of Culture Canada.

Surely, a wide swath of Canadians must support these beneficial programs, right?

Of course they don't!

Does anyone believe that the twenty-year old bachelor taking his machine working courses when he's not planning his fantasy football draft cares whether a ballet group gets to tour Hungary? Or if the single mother in her thirties who prefers kick-boxing and System Of The Down when she's not pulling down two jobs as a file clerk and a bar waitress supports sending a ska trio to a festival in San Diego? Or the forty-nine year-old husband of three, stressing about paying for one university education for his girls, least of all three of them. Heck, two of the teen aged ladies may have even taken tap and jazz growing up, and he still can't really feel too sorry for the group of twenty-something punk rockers who don't get to tour Sweden with his taxes.

If anything, some of these average Canadians actually do begrudge the subsidies and grants doled out to support the entertainment of Canada's richest segments of the population.

And what's the worst-case scenario? That every single solitary arts community voter plus a goodly chunk of folks who take in the Jazz Festival or even just like the idea of having a city Fringe Festival goes out and votes against the Tories. Overall, it's a fraction or a fraction of the population and as previously discussed, it is a voter pool that is shallow at best for Tory swimmers.

This is an issue that plays far louder in the media than the public at large.

And the funniest thing about it, is that I'm not even opposed to spending a small amount of the overall GDP to promote Canadian culture abroad. We should be happy to send our most talented to wave the flag and leave a little taste of the best - and even some of the not so best - we Canucks have to offer.

But let's not pretend that this is an issue that will haunt the Tories. Much like the Status of Women funding, the Court Challenges programs and the other similar cuts, this one will move quickly into the fogs of the past for Joe and Jane Canuck.

(There's even a joke or two to be made about the fact that arts communities as a whole could likely scrounge up some decent campaign coin to make noise about the cuts if they could only get past the idea that they always need gov't funding to have success, but I'm far too classy a guy to make it.)








Okay, This Is Pretty Funny

[link]

Construction of the 2.7 km Golden Gate Bridge began in January 1933 and was completed by April 1937 - a total of 52 months.

With no bridge in sight, we challenge Gary Doer's NDP Government to build the 18th Street bridges (spanning 100 meters over the Assiniboine River) in less than 52 months. Work on the bridges began in October 2006 - only 30 months remaining!

I love the potential of the internet in today's political world.


Thursday, August 14

Not Bad Mr. Craig

I've known Canadian Taxpayers Federation rep Colin Craig for over a decade - even played on the same softball team as him a couple of falls back - and the last time we argued over drinks, it was over the Winnipeg Stadium project. I was mostly opposed to the use of the argument that the stadium is "used only ten times a year", suggesting that there were better arguments to use if one wanted to oppose building a new stadium. Colin, nice guy that he is, mostly indulged me and maintained a healthy back-and-forth that lasted at least one pint.

Well, I can't but notice that he didn't use the "bad" argument yesterday. Instead, he brought a good one to the table:

"There's a lot of potential for developing the current stadium site and using the proceeds to pay for fixing it up." added Craig. "For example, we could put a hotel at the south end of the field with suites that double as luxury boxes. Another option would be to put additional seating on the roof of the hotel, similar to the seats outside of Wrigley Field in Chicago. Certainly, some of the valuable land around the stadium could be developed and used year round instead of as a parking lot ten times a year."


Notice he said "some of the valuable land around the stadium" and "ten times a year". Not "stadium" and "ten times a year". Anyhow, be sure to check out the picture. Not sure it could be done for $20 million, however I don't think Craig's wrong to suggest reno rather than rebuild.

Wednesday, August 13

Glad I'm Not The Only One

Paul Wells - in his comments on a Georgia/Russia post - wraps up nicely the feelings I've had about Barack Obama for a goodly portion of the year:

I have, in the last several days, become officially haunted by those pictures of Obama and Gordon Brown in London a few weeks ago. Two men who could not be more different, except that in each face, I see somebody who Showed Promise because how could he not show promise?, and who now, it seems clear at least on the worst days, does not have a fargin' clue.

The Obama camp is actually trying to make hay out of the McCain advisor who took Georgia lobby money — even as they rush pell-mell toward a position the Georgia-lobbying McCain advisor might as well have written. Obama's ads are uniformly awful — the most leadenly conventional, unsurprising, counterproductive ad campaign since the No side posters in the 1995 Quebec referendum. The man who barely beat Hillary is now running on a Hillary policy of inevitability, triangulation and consensus-before-conviction. I'm far from sure about this, I don't trust my instincts when it comes to politics outside Ottawa, but this guy Obama is starting to look like a big washout.


Obama may still accept the Presidency next January, that much is still clear - remarkably still up the in air considering all of his advantages.  However, that doesn't change the fact that he's going to oversell himself and badly under-deliver in the process.   Four and out will not surprise me.


Go Ahead Liberals....

Make their day.  Believe this.

Tuesday, August 12

I Like These Moves


NEWS RELEASE

August 12, 2008

For Immediate Release



MCFADYEN ANNOUNCES CHANGES TO

PC CRITIC RESPONSIBILITIES



Leader of the Official Opposition Hugh McFadyen today announced adjustments to critic responsibilities in preparation for the resumption of the legislative session.



"Our great success during the spring session demonstrated our team is holding the NDP to account for taking Manitoba down the wrong path," McFadyen said. "Adjustments to critic responsibilities will further strengthen the Official Opposition."

The changes include Steinbach MLA Kelvin Goertzen shifting focus back to Justice and becoming the Caucus Whip, which includes Question Period coordination.



Bonnie Mitchelson becomes the Family Services critic, bringing with her a wealth of experience and commitment to help tackle systemic problems created by the NDP.



McFadyen has also created a new focus on making Winnipeg an inland port, appointing Arthur-Virden MLA Larry Maguire critic in connection with this critical initiative.



Deputy Leader Myrna Driedger resumes her work in the Health portfolio, Tuxedo MLA Heather Stefanson adds Winnipeg to her list of portfolios, while Carman MLA Blaine Pedersen takes on Competitiveness, Training and Trade.



Reflecting his past experience with the Association of Manitoba Municipalities, Ste. Rose MLA Stu Briese takes on Intergovernmental Affairs and Emergency Measures and Lac du Bonnet MLA Gerald Hawranik takes on Advanced Education in addition to continuing as House Leader.



"These changes highlight the many strengths of our MLAs," McFadyen said, noting in particular the Back to Deficit Bill 38, ongoing crime problems throughout the province and the future of Manitoba Hydro will be key areas of focus for the opposition as session resumes.



"In the fall legislative session, Progressive Conservatives will continue to serve as an effective opposition to the Doer NDP by putting the priorities of families and taxpayers first."

-30-


Liz Peters
Acting Director of Communications
Manitoba PC Caucus
Phone: (204) 945-5519
Cell: (204) 791-8221
Fax: (204) 945-1284
liz.peters@leg.gov.mb.ca


Submitted Without Comment

Looks like the same guy to me.

[hat tip Kate]

Impressive Sense Of Timing (Or, "Check Out The Balls On Vlady!")

(click map to enlarge)

Typically, countries in the process of planning their own Olympics would most likely wait until after the current Games were completed before invading the country only a few dozen miles away from the host city.

Of course, Russia is not your typical country.

Doesn't it feel some days like The Bear is waking from a hibernation?

Monday, August 11

Seriously! Drop Your Weapons People!

Maybe I'm extending way too much good faith to the police, but here's the thing....With the intense scrutiny they are under lately whenever there is an incident involving a gun or a Tazer, I have to think that officers are likely hesitating even that little bit more before firing.

In all honestly, that begins to scare me as well.  For some critics of the force, cops are not going to delay long enough until the inevitable night that a police officer gets hurt or killed for holding back.  Only then will critics start to cut the officer some slack.

And even then, some critics still won't.

The constant varible in all of these recent shootings/tazerings has been a complete disregard for the instructions coming from the police.  Namely, the instructions of, "Stop.  Drop your weapon!"

Until that is heeded in a far more consistent and universal manner, I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt to the police officers who place their lives at risk to make the majority of us feel safer about our community.

I'm crazy that way.

[Link]
 


 

From The "And People Wonder Why I'm A Determinist..." Files:

Hillary Clinton - burned again by a philandering man:
 
Sen. Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic presidential nominee if John Edwards had been caught in his lie about an extramarital affair and forced out of the race last year, insists a top Clinton campaign aide, making a charge that could exacerbate previously existing tensions between the camps of Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama.

"I believe we would have won Iowa, and Clinton today would therefore have been the nominee," former Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson told ABCNews.com.

Clinton finished third in the Iowa caucuses barely behind Edwards in second place and Obama in first. The momentum of the insurgent Obama campaign beating two better-known candidates -- not to mention an African-American winning in such an overwhelmingly white state -- changed the dynamics of the race forever.

Obama won 37.6 per cent of the vote. Edwards won 29.7 per cent and Clinton won 29.5 per cent, according to results posted by the Iowa Democratic Party.

"Our voters and Edwards' voters were the same people," Wolfson said the Clinton polls showed. "They were older, pro-union. Not all, but maybe two-thirds of them would have been for us and we would have barely beaten Obama."

Two months earlier, Edwards had vociferously, but falsely, denied a story in the National Enquirer about the alleged affair last October, and few in the mainstream media even reported the denial.

I think Wolfson - while contending with a nasty case of "What If?"itis - is probably correct on this.  Clinton wins Iowa without John Edwards on the ballot.  Does she go on to win the primary?  Maybe not, but it is also much harder to foresee Obama catching fire without his surprise win on January 3rd and the strong speech accepting the caucus victory.  In the end, he managed to only hold her off and here he would have been behind early.
 
So yes, Edwards' decision to deny, deny, deny likely cost Hillary the nomination.
 
Course, this story also works as: Barack Obama - aided by "pecker thinking" yet again!

 

Sunday, August 10

Too Bad

Yesterday reading the paper, I noticed this...:

Your editorial pointing to the lack of trust between the aboriginal community and the Winnipeg Police Service was accurate. However, I would like to clarify the points the First Nation leadership made.

We question the use of deadly force in this incident. Too many Manitobans, no matter what their racial origin, are dying at the hands of police and the excuse that "he was holding a weapon" (be it a screwdriver, a knife, or possibly in this case, merely a cellphone) is wearing thin. An independent public inquiry into the procedures and actions of the Winnipeg Police Service would restore public confidence in the system.

The Aboriginal Justice Inquiry recommended establishing a special investigations unit through special legislation, responsible directly to the minister of justice, to take control of the investigation of any incident involving a police officer where possible criminal conduct arises or where a person dies or suffers serious injury.

This particular recommendation would not only protect First Nation and Metis people, but all citizens of Winnipeg from overzealous police actions. An independent process would restore everyone's confidence in the Winnipeg Police Service.

Chief David Harper

Garden Hill First Nation

Member of Island Lake Tribal Council



And remembered this...:

Our Regional Directors

David Harper  - Northern Manitoba



And thought to myself, "Are there any aboriginal leaders in the province unwilling to throw the Winnipeg Police Service under the bus?"

Links

Finally got around to updating the links while watching an episode of Jekyll. Mostly added stuff I've been reading and a few others that I've stumbled upon over the last few months. If you find any dead links, let me know.

Right Is Right, But Wrong Is Wrong Also

This scares me if it is true:

It was nice to see Child and Family services people there today in case the protesters had small children with them. One of the workers approached me early on and said they will seize the children if the kids if they had to. It was nice to know !   


Not sure what "if the kids" is supposed to be, so maybe I'm getting the jist of what he is saying wrong.  If Cotton is correct and someone from CFS really was there with the purpose of grabbing kids from deluded protesters, then we've got a problem on our hands.

Saturday, August 9

Gary Doer To Mary Agnes:

MA:
"...Why does Saskatchewan have 11 Olympic athletes going to Beijing and we only have two? That's pretty lame at a time when the city is investing millions in community clubs and recreation, a new indoor soccer complex is in the works, the Doer government has made phys ed mandatory for grades 11 and 12 and sports funding was a key promise of all the parties during last year's provincial election."


(One can only assume considering past history) GD:

"Oil."


Update: Because having TWO members of a 332-member team (or 0.006%) means we're doing okay, right?

Sheepish Sunday Morning Update: Councilor Browaty emails to correct my error on the math. It's actually 0.6%. I forgot to decimal shift when doing the calculation. North Kildonan's in good hands Jeff, what with your wicked math skills, clearly superior to mine...

Friday, August 8

To My Friend:

Manitoba doesn't have a high rate of gambling addiction because the government advertises the casinos. (If anything, the complete ineptitude of provincial busy-body management at the gov't casinos hurts business and keeps people away. Lord knows I can't recommend them to friends of mine who like gambling since you can't hope to get a free drink from time to time or even slug a beer that you paid for yourself like you can at any other casino in the civilized world.)

No, Manitoba has a high rate of gambling addiction because we have a boatload of VLTs and have let them expand and expand and expand. Part of that is the NDP's fault, but this one goes back to us and the best solution to the problem is banning slots outside of the casinos after we figure out a way to lower some of the economic decline that will follow when some of the weaker host sites close (particularly in our rural areas).

(To show I'm not anti-gambling however, what about a provision to allow bars to run regulated poker tournaments instead? Less money on the table and more booze being consumed has to help the owners.)

The thinking was sound in the 90's when the Filmon gov't allowed VLTs to come in, but the past decade and change has shown they are the problem and it is time we acknowledge it.

Except Last Time I Checked, Ezra Levant Wasn't A Hate Group

This might be a good point otherwise.

 

Thursday, August 7

"Did It. Did That. Mike Did That. I Did That One. There's Stan's. Did it. Did it."

Fun for this relapsed Ukie dancer to see this on a big summer show...

There's A Special Place In Hades For These Folks

 
The daughter of the founder of the Westboro Baptist Church, based in Topeka, Ka., told CTV.ca she and several other church members will go to Winnipeg on Saturday to demonstrate against what she described as McLean's "filthy way of life." Shirley Phelps-Roper said his life was emblematic of Canada's moral decay.

"God handed us a gift," Phelps-Roper said in a phone interview on Thursday.

She said McLean deserved his death by beheading on a Greyhound Bus last week.

"(His death was) supremely unemotional. You got God shaking in rage. There is no emotional component ... He was a rebel against God. He was taught to be a rebel by his parents. He came from a rebel country ... They brought this wrath upon his head. And it sucks to be him and it sucks to be them," Phelps-Roper said.

She said his brutal murder was a sign from God.

"You gotta connect the dots, people ... from your idols to your filthy way of life," she said.

The Hack: Don't blame religion for these people.  They are their own little brand of delusion and crazy and it is supremely unfair to think they have representation of even a percentage of a percentage of those with faith.

Wednesday, August 6

"I know my son would never harm anyone with authority." - Brian McDougall (Father of Craig McDougall)

 

 

Court documents show McDougall was charged with assault and aggravated assault resulting from a random spree of violence while living in Wasagamack First Nation three years ago. He was handed a sentence of 120 days time served and a two-year supervised probation order for assault and assault causing bodily harm.

On Aug. 26, 2005, McDougall punched and elbowed two 11-year-old boys in what the Crown attorney called a "random" booze-fuelled rampage as the boys and a friend walked by a creek on the reserve. When a guardian went to pick up the boys in a van, McDougall began choking her for a prolonged period after she refused to give him a cigarette. She and the boys eventually escaped and called police.

On the same night, McDougall also encountered a pregnant woman and demanded she give him a cigarette. When she refused, McDougall choked her and threw her to the ground. The woman, who had told McDougall she was pregnant, escaped by running away. Court documents show she was flown to the St. Boniface hospital in Winnipeg for medical attention, but the fetus died.

McDougall was denied bail after the judge ruled the public danger McDougall posed through his "crazed" actions made him a "great risk to the public."

Emphasis added of course.  The "booze-filled" addition is meant to convey that it might have been a case of intoxicants ruling behaviour that normally doesn't take place.  My experience with alcohol - my own and observing others - is that it tends to expose underlying violent tendencies and if you have them, they show when you are drunk. 
 
One woman lost her child after a beating from this guy.  I've never once been drunk enough to hit a woman, least of all choking another as well.
 
I understand a grieving father being upset and accusatory about police motives, however I just cannot understand the knee-jerk reactions of the aboriginal "leadership" in the province. 
 
Stop grasping at straws to spin your preferred "Cowboys & Indians" storyline and maybe wait for the investigation to play out before taking such a committed position.  If the investigation looks legitimately sour along the way, fine, raise hell and enjoy having the general public onside with you.  But kill your credibility at the beginning like you did on the Dumas shooting and you lose tremendous credibility with the public-at-large that you need onside to make changes. (By the way, has anybody ever apologized to the cops now that the facts reveal just how the Dumas shooting went down?)
 
I have no problem giving the police the benefit of the doubt on this one.   I could be wrong in the end. 

But I'll have no trouble admitting it and I won't be race-baiting in the meantime.
 
 

 

Tuesday, August 5

I'd Be Insane Not To Try Out For This

Have to admit...Spent some time day-dreaming today after getting a head's up from a friend.

[link]



ATTENTION all wanna-be radio stars!

CJOB wants you!

CJOB's Talk Idol is the ultimate news/talk contest. If you're up on current events and have an opinion, this is your chance to win a one year contract on CJOB plus $5000 CASH.

It's NOT easy to win!

• Contestants must be 18 years of age.

• Time commitment required of contestants who make it through the semi-final and final rounds can be demanding; on-air appointment times are not flexible.

• Enter by answering the question: Why should you be the next talk radio star?

• Sixteen (16) contestants will be selected by a panel of internal judges at CJOB. These contestants will be notified the week of August 25th and asked to answer a series of questions that will help the station prepare contestant bios and promotional information.




Honestly, I have to be able to crack the 16 possibles, right?

Monday, August 4

This Feels Like An Important Fact In The Equation

From Saturday's Globe story on Canwest:

Each of the three Asper children inherited a large voting stake in the company from their father, Izzy Asper, who died in 2003. Their personal stakes of about 25.6 million multiple voting shares are now worth about $58-million each.

Now I'm sure David has a few other revenue streams going, but in his stadium proposal...Where's his portion coming from again?  Obviously, it's not coming from the Canwest side of the ledger.

Links