You Write For A Living Dan
You know how to properly define "benign hyperbole". Your throwaway line in the original post wasn't it.
Wednesday, April 30
Lots To Talk About
June 14th, 2011
CJOB just reported that Gary Doer introduced a bill for fixed elections on the 2nd Tuesday in June every four years. This is excellent news. Not only is it a change long overdue, but it also shows that a logical and sustained argument regarding policy can force the government to change its play.
Congrats to both sides on this one. The Tories for consistently pushing it as an agenda and the NDP for actually making the change.
Hmmmm....I'll have just turned thirty-two....Might be old enough.
Congrats to both sides on this one. The Tories for consistently pushing it as an agenda and the NDP for actually making the change.
Hmmmm....I'll have just turned thirty-two....Might be old enough.
Tuesday, April 29
I'll Admit That It Bothers Me Too
My Bad
The NDP Discover Rural Manitoba (Or, "Uh-Oh Hugh McFadyen! This Smells Like A Test For You")
[hat tip Anybody Want A Peanut]
NEWS RELEASE
April 28, 2008
Public Schools to Continue to Play Vital Role in Communities: Minister
Hack: I've got to admit, I can't say I ever imagined the NDP throwing this gauntlet down. While throwing money at a tough decision is their MO, school closures tend to be a rural issue (pockets of Fort Garry and others notwithstanding) and no one is throwing out insults when they say that rural issues aren't really the NDP bag.
"Having local public schools is vital to the quality of the total educational experience, especially for young children. Schools also play an important role in communities, especially in rural areas, as gathering places for social and cultural events, athletics, community meetings and adult education," Bjornson said. "To determine the most effective ways to use these buildings to serve their communities on a long-term basis, we will consult with school divisions about the regulations."
Hack: Some background on myself...My hometown school, where I attended K-9 growing up, closed like four or five years ago. By time it closed, it was down to K-6 and if I'm remembering correctly, something like 15-18 students, mostly skewered towards the oldest three grades.
It wasn't unique in Manitoba.
Hack: If declining enrolment and one and two student grade levels aren't "exceptional circumstances", just what is the Minister considering here?
Hack: This line is nothing but noise. Of course school divisions use "their best efforts" to lower bus time. They aren't masochists trying to make ten year-olds suffer by spending 20-25% of their waking hours riding a vinyl bench seat. But here's the thing, what would the Minister recommend here? When I was back in high school I had friends getting picked up every morning around 7:20am to arrive at the high school for 8:50amish. Do Bjornson or Gary Doer or whichever NDP hack wrote this press release believe that the school division was doing that just to dick around MaryEllen and Mark?
Obviously not! They had to ride the bus that long because they lived the furtherest away from the school and they had to get there somehow. What's the NDP plan here? Helicopter lift?
Hack: A number of things here, but first, if depopulation and lowering enrolments are at the root of a school closure, maybe the feel-good sounding "child-care centres" aren't really required in the community, eh? There's more to discuss here, but I'm calling it a night. I'll come back at it later.
The basics:
- While I'm certainly not one to suggest that you can't learn at a small school, I do believe that students lose too much access to a variety of programs and even lose a lot socially if their age peer group drops below a certain level. At what point are we stunting the education and development of the pupils?
- How can anyone justify overspending to keep a school open when education budgets are already stretched fairly thin and the closure could lead to overall better (and broader) educations for the students twenty minutes down the road?
- Which Tory principle will take precedence here? The one that suggest sound fiscal management or support for rural communities?
- What exactly is the NDP play here? Quite honestly, was school closures really an issue that was nipping at them? Why now?
NEWS RELEASE
April 28, 2008
BJORNSON INTRODUCES LEGISLATION THAT WOULD PLACE MORATORIUM ON SCHOOL CLOSURES
– – –Public Schools to Continue to Play Vital Role in Communities: Minister
Amendments that would place a moratorium on school closures were introduced in the legislature today by Education, Citizenship and Youth Minister Peter Bjornson, who said they would support families and communities in the face of demographic changes and declining enrolment.
Hack: I've got to admit, I can't say I ever imagined the NDP throwing this gauntlet down. While throwing money at a tough decision is their MO, school closures tend to be a rural issue (pockets of Fort Garry and others notwithstanding) and no one is throwing out insults when they say that rural issues aren't really the NDP bag.
"Having local public schools is vital to the quality of the total educational experience, especially for young children. Schools also play an important role in communities, especially in rural areas, as gathering places for social and cultural events, athletics, community meetings and adult education," Bjornson said. "To determine the most effective ways to use these buildings to serve their communities on a long-term basis, we will consult with school divisions about the regulations."
Hack: Some background on myself...My hometown school, where I attended K-9 growing up, closed like four or five years ago. By time it closed, it was down to K-6 and if I'm remembering correctly, something like 15-18 students, mostly skewered towards the oldest three grades.
It wasn't unique in Manitoba.
Under proposed amendments to the Public Schools Act, closures of schools would be allowed only in exceptional circumstances. To keep schools open, government would provide greater funding to assist school divisions and also review programming options.
Hack: If declining enrolment and one and two student grade levels aren't "exceptional circumstances", just what is the Minister considering here?
School divisions would also be required to use best efforts to ensure pupils they transport do not travel more than 60 minutes to or from school.
Hack: This line is nothing but noise. Of course school divisions use "their best efforts" to lower bus time. They aren't masochists trying to make ten year-olds suffer by spending 20-25% of their waking hours riding a vinyl bench seat. But here's the thing, what would the Minister recommend here? When I was back in high school I had friends getting picked up every morning around 7:20am to arrive at the high school for 8:50amish. Do Bjornson or Gary Doer or whichever NDP hack wrote this press release believe that the school division was doing that just to dick around MaryEllen and Mark?
Obviously not! They had to ride the bus that long because they lived the furtherest away from the school and they had to get there somehow. What's the NDP plan here? Helicopter lift?
"In anticipating ongoing enrolment challenges, we are moving now to protect the interests of students and parents and ensure communities benefit from sustainable infrastructure such as school buildings that are under-used," said Bjornson. "Options we will examine include using portions of current buildings for child-care centres and other resources that benefit the community."
- 30 -
Hack: A number of things here, but first, if depopulation and lowering enrolments are at the root of a school closure, maybe the feel-good sounding "child-care centres" aren't really required in the community, eh? There's more to discuss here, but I'm calling it a night. I'll come back at it later.
The basics:
- While I'm certainly not one to suggest that you can't learn at a small school, I do believe that students lose too much access to a variety of programs and even lose a lot socially if their age peer group drops below a certain level. At what point are we stunting the education and development of the pupils?
- How can anyone justify overspending to keep a school open when education budgets are already stretched fairly thin and the closure could lead to overall better (and broader) educations for the students twenty minutes down the road?
- Which Tory principle will take precedence here? The one that suggest sound fiscal management or support for rural communities?
- What exactly is the NDP play here? Quite honestly, was school closures really an issue that was nipping at them? Why now?
Friday, April 25
The Message I'll Be Pushing Hard To My Provincial Tory Friends This Summer
We don't have two years to come up with policy. There is an emerging opportunity to carve out a beachhead of Tory support if we start hitting the economy policy hard and consistently. Whether it's the US slow down, manufacturing losses in the east or 2008's version of climate change, food prices, people are going to be spending the next twelve to eighteen months thinking about their finances.
The economy is an area where the Doer government can throw up window dressing and come across as "okay", but most readers to this blog are astute and knowledgeable enough to know differently. Now is the time to bring more Manitobans into that category.
If we wait two years, we're going to miss the window. On that, I'm positive. Opportunity doesn't always wait for political party processes to play themselves out.
Successful political parties (and by extension, successful political leaders) grab opportunity when it presents itself.
When it comes to the economy and Manitoba's role in Canada over the next fifty years, 2008 is the year to debate issues and win.
The economy is an area where the Doer government can throw up window dressing and come across as "okay", but most readers to this blog are astute and knowledgeable enough to know differently. Now is the time to bring more Manitobans into that category.
If we wait two years, we're going to miss the window. On that, I'm positive. Opportunity doesn't always wait for political party processes to play themselves out.
Successful political parties (and by extension, successful political leaders) grab opportunity when it presents itself.
When it comes to the economy and Manitoba's role in Canada over the next fifty years, 2008 is the year to debate issues and win.
If we wait until 2010 to start laying out our vision - right about the time the economy starts heating up again - we're dead in the water once again.
(Here's the Chantal Hebert column that brought this topic to mind.)
(Here's the Chantal Hebert column that brought this topic to mind.)
Thursday, April 24
Beat The Rush
The Frog:
If it was me and I held Jenny's politics as my own, hell, I'd make it a game to poke Sam on stuff like this just to wind him up. My hunch is that maintaining some distance from the Mayor could be valuable sometimes around Fall 2010.
Decades from now when I write my ego book, when it comes time to discuss "political capital" and "political capital, the wasting of", Katz will surely serve up an ideal example of the latter. Guy came into politics with the longest leash granted a local pol in over a decade and a half if not longer and he's become a farce. At least Glen Murray stood for something other than himself once in awhile.
Sam, I can appreciate your personal disgust at the Hitler sign incident. And I agree that Gerbasi and Thomas are often nutters, and annoying ones at that. But come on. You're the Mayor of the City of Winnipeg. You have a commanding control over City Council, and the civic administration lives in fear of your minions. You don't have to take the bait every single time.
If it was me and I held Jenny's politics as my own, hell, I'd make it a game to poke Sam on stuff like this just to wind him up. My hunch is that maintaining some distance from the Mayor could be valuable sometimes around Fall 2010.
Decades from now when I write my ego book, when it comes time to discuss "political capital" and "political capital, the wasting of", Katz will surely serve up an ideal example of the latter. Guy came into politics with the longest leash granted a local pol in over a decade and a half if not longer and he's become a farce. At least Glen Murray stood for something other than himself once in awhile.
Wednesday, April 23
Wells (Who The Hack Endorses) On May
[Wells]
We are reluctant to write much about the Green Party of Canada in this corner. There are two reasons, and here they are now.
(a) One seemingly not-entirely-hinged reader has taken to haranguing me and ITQ about our refusal to give proper scrutiny to the (as he sees her) nefarious Elizabeth May. ITQ and I worry that if we actually wrote about the Greens we would only encourage this fellow, and we seriously don't want to do that.
(b) THE GREEN PARTY OF CANADA HAS NO SEATS IN PARLIAMENT!!! Sorry for shouting, but this is what ITQ and I want to say to the fellow in point (a) as an explanation for (as he sees it) shirking our duty: It feels unaccountably more rewarding to pay attention to people with power than to pay attention to people without power.[snip](Incidentally, if you're wondering why the Green leader should not have a spot on the already-crowded stage at the next election leaders' debate, I recommend a careful inspection of the first 10 words of point (b). But I digress. Onward.)
Damned straight. More is less when it comes to televised debates. As is, I enthusiastically endorse Coyne's proposal of changing the (now*) four debates, make them bilingual, focus on topics for an entire debate and leave the last one for just the two leaders who could actually become PM.
* - The last election at least grew the debates from 2 to 4. My hunch is that a normal writ period instead of the protracted over Christmas period of the '06 election and Prime Ministe Harper's drive to control his message to the period will conspire to return us to the normal (and almost useless) one english debate and one french debate.
* - The last election at least grew the debates from 2 to 4. My hunch is that a normal writ period instead of the protracted over Christmas period of the '06 election and Prime Ministe Harper's drive to control his message to the period will conspire to return us to the normal (and almost useless) one english debate and one french debate.
Tuesday, April 22
One Capital Team To Another
With the Sens stinking themselves out of the playoffs, I'm adopting the Caps. Game Seven's third period just ended and what fun it was despite the game remaining tied at deuces. Please win Washington. I want to watch you in Round Two.
UPDATE: Well darn. Who's next to feel good about? The Sharks? Pittsburgh?
UPDATE: Well darn. Who's next to feel good about? The Sharks? Pittsburgh?
"Low-cost housing isn't my dream."
A few years ago, I was invited to participate in a forum with a group of university graduate students to discuss Winnipeg. Included in the group were two international students from Shanghai who were pursuing master's degrees in planning. I nervously asked them if they were planning to stay in Winnipeg upon graduation, while I prepared in my mind the litany of reasons for them to stay.One of the students, a young woman, politely answered with an almost apologetic tone, "We are going back to Shanghai." At that point I began my usual Chamber of Commerce sales pitch for Winnipeg mentioning a number of our attributes and closing with our affordability. The student smiled and said, "Mr. Angus... low-cost housing isn't my dream." In an instant, my view of the next generation and our city's ability to attract and keep them changed forever. That young woman helped me realize that unless we create a city in which our youth can pursue their dreams and a city that respects their values, we have little hope of success in keeping and attracting the bright minds that our community needs.
Good commentary from the Chamber's Dave Angus this morning. When I write about creating an excitement and momentum in Manitoba, this is sorta what I'm referring about. So long as most opinion makers within the city argue that the comfort of their lifestyles is a reflection of the goals and dreams of others, we'll continue to miss some of the real issues requiring a fix.
Monday, April 21
Help!
I used to have a nifty link that had the voting records of MPs, but can't find it anymore. Does anyone know where I can find out which three Tories that voted against C-484*? I'm betting Moore, Emerson and maybe Prentice.
* - The potential abortion debate-related bill that makes it murder if you harm a pregnant woman to the point where she loses the baby.
Wednesday, April 16
See, That's The Difference Between Him And Me, You See.....
....While I'm coming up with material involving self lovin', the Froggie might actually be spending his evenings cooking up an interesting policy spin on transit.
Helping Lower Manitoba's Health Budget Since 1993....*
[link]
* - Yes, knowing that my mother will read this has made me blush writing it, but I'm not sure I could have respected myself in the morning if I chickened out on it.
Just knowing that at least three readers will have to wipe up the coffee that they spit all over their screens and keyboards makes it completely worth it.
Headline: Masturbation 'cuts cancer risk'
* - Yes, knowing that my mother will read this has made me blush writing it, but I'm not sure I could have respected myself in the morning if I chickened out on it.
Just knowing that at least three readers will have to wipe up the coffee that they spit all over their screens and keyboards makes it completely worth it.
Tuesday, April 15
OhPleaseOhPleaseOhPleaseOhPleaseOhPleaseOhPlease
[Wells]
It sure would make things interesting if Rick Hillier ran for the Tories in the next election, no?
I'd love it, but my hunch is that the Prime Minister would soon be a little (or a lot) threatened by the popular general and that it wouldn't end nicely.
Still, I'll tentatively throw this out there....How's Rick's french?
Still, I'll tentatively throw this out there....How's Rick's french?
OhNoOhNoOhNoOhNoOhNoOhNoOhNoOhNo
Friday, April 11
Wednesday, April 9
Answer: Never. Another Caretaker Government Is What We Elected Last May.
Hack: UPDATED AND BUMPED (8:53pm)
Question NDP Activists Have To Be Asking Themselves: If Not Now, When?
Question NDP Activists Have To Be Asking Themselves: If Not Now, When?
* * * * * * *
At first glance, the budget appears to be another "little here, little there", nothing-too-ambitious budget.
And is anyone else concerned that in nine budgets, gov't spending has gone up about $3 Billion per year or roughly 40-45% since 1999. That's a lot of spending.
How much does the Education tax credit cost the government each year now that it'll be $600? At what point does it make more sense to just get rid of that and send the money directly to school boards?
Raising the basic exemption $100 is a joke. Fellow Tories, this is our potential wedge issue. $10,000 by 2011 and $12,500 by 2015 makes too much sense not to campaign on and it's a tax cut measure that helps everybody across the board.
More later...
*************
Later
Okay, looking at the numbers a little closer, here's stuff that jumps out....
Another year, another $240m more in living off the backs of our fellow Canadians. Great economic plan you've got going Gary. (11.5% increase)
Health Care spending is $4.133B for another 6.5% increase (and that's on top of going $100m over budget yet again last year). When one department alone accounts for 42% of gov't spending, it doesn't take a brain surgeon to suggest that budget increases twice the rate of growth is a prescription for economic disaster. Doesn't simple prudence suggest holding that line to no more than 3% or so at the very most?!
Going back and taking a look at 99-00 health care spending [pdf file, page 88], this Gary Doer NDP government has raised health spending by - wait for it - TWO BILLION DOLLARS over a scarily short-feeling eight years. That's a 95% increase since taking office and let me remind you once again, health is - by far - the number one line item in gov't expenditures. Isn't that just a little disconcerting to you? Whenever I remember that they've got at least another seven ahead of them, I have to wonder just what type of budget hamstring legacy are they leaving the province?
.....
Let's dwell on that health number just a bit longer, because I truly believe it is an important one.
If we Tories had a little more guts on this issue and a willingness to take a risk, we'd almost be tempted to try and present these numbers to Manitobans and explain why such exorbitant increases are not only unsustainable but also a major reason why other needed gov't services are not being properly funded (read: infrastructure). Manitobans aren't stupid. Most would see the numbers...$2,000,000,000; 95% increase over eight years; 6.5% just this year alone; 42 cents of each spent dollar....and they would listen to a measured and reasonable argument that suggested that such spending increases had to be reigned in.
It's unbelievable really.
.....
Moving on...
Have I missed something on a rash of smokers' deaths or is it just me and the gov't is being terribly conservative on their estimates of revenue from cigarette taxes? ($170m 08-09 vs. $204m collected in 07-08). Or are they expecting their anti-smoking budget measures to really result in a 17% decline in smoking? (Honest question: Could this be a tidy little place to hide a surplus in the making?)
If smoking is down, the gov't is expecting the other sins to be plentiful, with Liquor and Lotteries to turn in an extra $26m and $14m respectively.
Why has Worker's Comp "Recovery Fees" gone up a million dollars from $7.8m to $8.8m? What are these?
Speaking of workplace safety....Who's the extra $800k in salaries at Workplace Health & Safety going towards? (18%ish increase)
I'll take another look tomorrow and see what I missed tonight.
*************
Later
Okay, looking at the numbers a little closer, here's stuff that jumps out....
Another year, another $240m more in living off the backs of our fellow Canadians. Great economic plan you've got going Gary. (11.5% increase)
Health Care spending is $4.133B for another 6.5% increase (and that's on top of going $100m over budget yet again last year). When one department alone accounts for 42% of gov't spending, it doesn't take a brain surgeon to suggest that budget increases twice the rate of growth is a prescription for economic disaster. Doesn't simple prudence suggest holding that line to no more than 3% or so at the very most?!
Going back and taking a look at 99-00 health care spending [pdf file, page 88], this Gary Doer NDP government has raised health spending by - wait for it - TWO BILLION DOLLARS over a scarily short-feeling eight years. That's a 95% increase since taking office and let me remind you once again, health is - by far - the number one line item in gov't expenditures. Isn't that just a little disconcerting to you? Whenever I remember that they've got at least another seven ahead of them, I have to wonder just what type of budget hamstring legacy are they leaving the province?
.....
Let's dwell on that health number just a bit longer, because I truly believe it is an important one.
If we Tories had a little more guts on this issue and a willingness to take a risk, we'd almost be tempted to try and present these numbers to Manitobans and explain why such exorbitant increases are not only unsustainable but also a major reason why other needed gov't services are not being properly funded (read: infrastructure). Manitobans aren't stupid. Most would see the numbers...$2,000,000,000; 95% increase over eight years; 6.5% just this year alone; 42 cents of each spent dollar....and they would listen to a measured and reasonable argument that suggested that such spending increases had to be reigned in.
It's unbelievable really.
.....
Moving on...
Have I missed something on a rash of smokers' deaths or is it just me and the gov't is being terribly conservative on their estimates of revenue from cigarette taxes? ($170m 08-09 vs. $204m collected in 07-08). Or are they expecting their anti-smoking budget measures to really result in a 17% decline in smoking? (Honest question: Could this be a tidy little place to hide a surplus in the making?)
If smoking is down, the gov't is expecting the other sins to be plentiful, with Liquor and Lotteries to turn in an extra $26m and $14m respectively.
Why has Worker's Comp "Recovery Fees" gone up a million dollars from $7.8m to $8.8m? What are these?
Speaking of workplace safety....Who's the extra $800k in salaries at Workplace Health & Safety going towards? (18%ish increase)
I'll take another look tomorrow and see what I missed tonight.
Heh. This Anti-Endorsement Could Spark Additional Sales Out Of Spite
Monday, April 7
On The Presidential Trail...
Crowd was about 16,000-17,000 which to this Canadian, is truly amazing. You saw kids who you would never associate with "Let's go check out the political speech" showing up in droves. Grand Forks must have closed down Friday afternoon, because there were tonnes of people there.
Political parties up here are greying at a tremendous rate because membership doesn't offer anything outside or leadership or candidate votes, which don't happen very often. I'm sure it would be completely ridiculous to believe that the large numbers turning out were all politically driven, but just exposing a wide cross section of the population to political ideas cannot be a bad thing and on that I tip my hat to my American friends. Politics as entertainment works to get the people to engage at a base level at the very least.
The lines to get in were insanely long, but at least moving with decent speed when we arrived. Got into line at 3:12pm (I looked) and I was being handed a hot dog inside at 4:01pm. It was a gorgeous spring day so standing around wasn't a bad thing.
Obama got to go on first at 5:30ish. We were watching from the immediate side (approx at 2:30 if looking from the podium) and after losing my glasses in Toronto at the Grey Cup, there was no way I could focus on the stage players. He was just a small blob at the podium, so while I listened carefully, I mainly scanned the crowd nearby to gauge reactions (and worked on a Sudoku puzzle).
His speaking ability is already well known and I'm not going to repeat others, but his actual speech was a bit of a surprise to me and my group. (Conservatives for the most part.)
One member of my party in particular was pro-Obama on th trip south (she said she didn't like McCain and liked Barrack's inspirational ability) and was looking forward to the speech. To her dismay(?), her mouth repeatedly popped open at some of the lines Obama was using.
His speech was what I would consider strongly leftist. On almost any issue touched upon, foreign policy, the economy, social spending, the lines he used would indicate a leftwing feel. I look forward to going back to the speech online because I believe there wasn't one single area where I could sense Obama reaching out to a conservative ideal on a position. In a red state such as North Dakota, that surprised me. One of the reasons I was looking forward to the speech was because I thought he might roadtest some of the concepts he was going to use in the general against McCain. Got no sense of that while listening.
Curtis Brown was there and when he asked me about my thoughts, I told him that it felt like a speech that Canadian NDP leader Jack Layton could have given without anyone batting an eye.
Because they never have a chance of forming government, their rhetorical flourishes and grandiose statements can sometimes work their way into Layton's speeches and I know that most media and many voters tune out the most motherhood stuff coming from him because quite frankly, no one - not even Layton - really ever expects them to form government, so the workability of their positions often isn't considered as much as the value or nobility of the positions. Hence, the NDP have developed a bit of a reputation as being the "conscious of Parliament". Destined to throw out noble goals, but resigned to letting others figure out a way to reach them.
On Friday night, I heard Barrack Obama doing a Jack Layton impression.
His speech was big on flourish and heavy on that whole hope thing, but gruel thin on ever the vaguest idea as to how he would reach them. (Curtis called it "wonkish", but this wonk wonders if he was listening to the same spiel.) His only real tidbit of policy was that he would make tuition more affordable (motherhood idea) but that students might be required to give something back (general sense that funding could be tied to a civic responsibility of some sorts). While that isn't a policy per se, it at least gives a sense of where he might be headed on that portfolio.
Beyond that, I guess you could use his repeat statement on getting troops out of Iraq as a policy, which are more fleshed out on his website (no permanent bases, full withdrawl with 16 months), however he cannot expect voters to discover the nuance online as I would wager that most of the people in that arena had not spent much time on his website.
It was your typical leftist lines on the economy (for example "not just free trade, but fair trade"/anti tax cuts), Bush/Chaney, comparing the 1997 floods of Grand Forks (and the response of the gov't then) to New Orleans and its gov't failures, and a few required lines on Dr. King and what his candidacy (Obama's) means on the anniversary of MLK's death. (I actually enjoyed this last section quite immensely, because Obama didn't get too self-congratulatory and offered up some of King's own words to continue with a message of everyone doing it all together to make the country better.)
Now here's the place where I have to offer what I feel is honest political assessment and not just a right wing/left wing critique:
After watching yesterday's speech, I strongly believe that one of two outcomes will befall Obama.
A) He wins the presidency and disappoints the lion's share of his supporters within his first two years; or
B) He loses to John McCain in November. (the position I have money riding on and a position I'm even more comfortable with today than I was a week ago)
Dealing with A, why do I think he would disappoint?
As I studied the crowd in the arena, you could see that they were sincerely enthused about Obama and were buying in on a strong emotional level.
But the speech itself was primarily motherhood and concepts of hope and improvement with very little substance or policy structure forming underneath those ideas. Because Obama isn't giving people a sense of what he's going to specifically do if he becomes President, all those people lining up behind him are starting to envision their own ideas of what President Obama will be. And the more hope and the more excitement Obama inspires in them, the more ambitious those visions are becoming.
Honestly, from watching and from speaking to a few Obama supporters, I don't believe for one second that Obama can actually match those expectations.
Frankly, no politician could.
Political restraints, institutional restraints, changing world events, even contradictory expectations...All will conspire against him.
The other thing about the excitement and the passions is that I can't help but think that running hot in April isn't as good as running hot in October. I'm really wondering if he can really maintain the build all the way thru the race and the second peak of "Obama-mania" won't be nearly as high as the first. Another Canadian politician Obama is sometimes compared to is Pierre Trudeau, who swept Canada under his spell in 1968 during a period referred to as "Trudeaumania". Thing is, Trudeaumania lasted about 100 days in total from beginning to end (the liberal leadership was in April 68' and the election in June.)
That was also in a time when the news cycle was more drawn out and people didn't have chronic OCD when it comes to politics and entertainment (which are the two twin pillars of Obama's popularity right now).
Can he really carry it all to November? I don't believe he can, which leads us back to....
B) He loses to John McCain in November.
I keep going back to the speech content...There was no outreach whatsoever to a republican-minded voter. Even a moderate one. Pulling out of Iraq, government intervention in the economy, social program expansion... Again, not much to pull in a moderate republican voter except for Bush fatigue.
Sure, Obama is polling strong amongst independents right now, but there are right-leaning independents as well as left-leaning independents. Like my friend on the trip, right now it is easy for Obama to be a popular choice to get behind, because once again, people are projecting a lot of their own hopes onto him at the moment. She was very much stopped in her tracks when she saw him in action.
I'm willing to bet that come the fall, you'll see the independents breaking both ways when how Obama and McCain define themselves becomes better known. Least of all, how the parties define their opponents as well. Obama cannot expect to continue carrying them the way the primaries suggest he might. If he banks on that, I believe it'll be a very bad error.
And by time the fall rolls around, my hunch is that McCain will have put enough distance in between himself and Bush that only the most angry republican voter wouldn't give McCain a fair look unless Obama's material starts moving towards the middle.
Some might say, "Of course, Obama will start moderating after he gets the nomination," but I'm not entirely sure that will be the case, but since this post is too long already, I'll leave Hillary for another post tonight.
Political parties up here are greying at a tremendous rate because membership doesn't offer anything outside or leadership or candidate votes, which don't happen very often. I'm sure it would be completely ridiculous to believe that the large numbers turning out were all politically driven, but just exposing a wide cross section of the population to political ideas cannot be a bad thing and on that I tip my hat to my American friends. Politics as entertainment works to get the people to engage at a base level at the very least.
The lines to get in were insanely long, but at least moving with decent speed when we arrived. Got into line at 3:12pm (I looked) and I was being handed a hot dog inside at 4:01pm. It was a gorgeous spring day so standing around wasn't a bad thing.
Obama got to go on first at 5:30ish. We were watching from the immediate side (approx at 2:30 if looking from the podium) and after losing my glasses in Toronto at the Grey Cup, there was no way I could focus on the stage players. He was just a small blob at the podium, so while I listened carefully, I mainly scanned the crowd nearby to gauge reactions (and worked on a Sudoku puzzle).
His speaking ability is already well known and I'm not going to repeat others, but his actual speech was a bit of a surprise to me and my group. (Conservatives for the most part.)
One member of my party in particular was pro-Obama on th trip south (she said she didn't like McCain and liked Barrack's inspirational ability) and was looking forward to the speech. To her dismay(?), her mouth repeatedly popped open at some of the lines Obama was using.
His speech was what I would consider strongly leftist. On almost any issue touched upon, foreign policy, the economy, social spending, the lines he used would indicate a leftwing feel. I look forward to going back to the speech online because I believe there wasn't one single area where I could sense Obama reaching out to a conservative ideal on a position. In a red state such as North Dakota, that surprised me. One of the reasons I was looking forward to the speech was because I thought he might roadtest some of the concepts he was going to use in the general against McCain. Got no sense of that while listening.
Curtis Brown was there and when he asked me about my thoughts, I told him that it felt like a speech that Canadian NDP leader Jack Layton could have given without anyone batting an eye.
Because they never have a chance of forming government, their rhetorical flourishes and grandiose statements can sometimes work their way into Layton's speeches and I know that most media and many voters tune out the most motherhood stuff coming from him because quite frankly, no one - not even Layton - really ever expects them to form government, so the workability of their positions often isn't considered as much as the value or nobility of the positions. Hence, the NDP have developed a bit of a reputation as being the "conscious of Parliament". Destined to throw out noble goals, but resigned to letting others figure out a way to reach them.
On Friday night, I heard Barrack Obama doing a Jack Layton impression.
His speech was big on flourish and heavy on that whole hope thing, but gruel thin on ever the vaguest idea as to how he would reach them. (Curtis called it "wonkish", but this wonk wonders if he was listening to the same spiel.) His only real tidbit of policy was that he would make tuition more affordable (motherhood idea) but that students might be required to give something back (general sense that funding could be tied to a civic responsibility of some sorts). While that isn't a policy per se, it at least gives a sense of where he might be headed on that portfolio.
Beyond that, I guess you could use his repeat statement on getting troops out of Iraq as a policy, which are more fleshed out on his website (no permanent bases, full withdrawl with 16 months), however he cannot expect voters to discover the nuance online as I would wager that most of the people in that arena had not spent much time on his website.
It was your typical leftist lines on the economy (for example "not just free trade, but fair trade"/anti tax cuts), Bush/Chaney, comparing the 1997 floods of Grand Forks (and the response of the gov't then) to New Orleans and its gov't failures, and a few required lines on Dr. King and what his candidacy (Obama's) means on the anniversary of MLK's death. (I actually enjoyed this last section quite immensely, because Obama didn't get too self-congratulatory and offered up some of King's own words to continue with a message of everyone doing it all together to make the country better.)
Now here's the place where I have to offer what I feel is honest political assessment and not just a right wing/left wing critique:
After watching yesterday's speech, I strongly believe that one of two outcomes will befall Obama.
A) He wins the presidency and disappoints the lion's share of his supporters within his first two years; or
B) He loses to John McCain in November. (the position I have money riding on and a position I'm even more comfortable with today than I was a week ago)
Dealing with A, why do I think he would disappoint?
As I studied the crowd in the arena, you could see that they were sincerely enthused about Obama and were buying in on a strong emotional level.
But the speech itself was primarily motherhood and concepts of hope and improvement with very little substance or policy structure forming underneath those ideas. Because Obama isn't giving people a sense of what he's going to specifically do if he becomes President, all those people lining up behind him are starting to envision their own ideas of what President Obama will be. And the more hope and the more excitement Obama inspires in them, the more ambitious those visions are becoming.
Honestly, from watching and from speaking to a few Obama supporters, I don't believe for one second that Obama can actually match those expectations.
Frankly, no politician could.
Political restraints, institutional restraints, changing world events, even contradictory expectations...All will conspire against him.
The other thing about the excitement and the passions is that I can't help but think that running hot in April isn't as good as running hot in October. I'm really wondering if he can really maintain the build all the way thru the race and the second peak of "Obama-mania" won't be nearly as high as the first. Another Canadian politician Obama is sometimes compared to is Pierre Trudeau, who swept Canada under his spell in 1968 during a period referred to as "Trudeaumania". Thing is, Trudeaumania lasted about 100 days in total from beginning to end (the liberal leadership was in April 68' and the election in June.)
That was also in a time when the news cycle was more drawn out and people didn't have chronic OCD when it comes to politics and entertainment (which are the two twin pillars of Obama's popularity right now).
Can he really carry it all to November? I don't believe he can, which leads us back to....
B) He loses to John McCain in November.
I keep going back to the speech content...There was no outreach whatsoever to a republican-minded voter. Even a moderate one. Pulling out of Iraq, government intervention in the economy, social program expansion... Again, not much to pull in a moderate republican voter except for Bush fatigue.
Sure, Obama is polling strong amongst independents right now, but there are right-leaning independents as well as left-leaning independents. Like my friend on the trip, right now it is easy for Obama to be a popular choice to get behind, because once again, people are projecting a lot of their own hopes onto him at the moment. She was very much stopped in her tracks when she saw him in action.
I'm willing to bet that come the fall, you'll see the independents breaking both ways when how Obama and McCain define themselves becomes better known. Least of all, how the parties define their opponents as well. Obama cannot expect to continue carrying them the way the primaries suggest he might. If he banks on that, I believe it'll be a very bad error.
And by time the fall rolls around, my hunch is that McCain will have put enough distance in between himself and Bush that only the most angry republican voter wouldn't give McCain a fair look unless Obama's material starts moving towards the middle.
Some might say, "Of course, Obama will start moderating after he gets the nomination," but I'm not entirely sure that will be the case, but since this post is too long already, I'll leave Hillary for another post tonight.
Friday, April 4
Headed South To See How They Do The Whole Pol-li-tik-in' Down Dere
Thursday, April 3
Really, What's More Damaging?
The dumb as hell comment or the early 90's cheeseball photo accompanying the story.
For what it's worth, which isn't much, Tom Lukiwski's character was vouched to me by someone whose opinions on things usually mattered. I'm was told Lukiwski was a gamer and to keep an eye on his career path.
Notsomuch anymore unless something has changed in how stories like these play in the media and with the public.
For what it's worth, which isn't much, Tom Lukiwski's character was vouched to me by someone whose opinions on things usually mattered. I'm was told Lukiwski was a gamer and to keep an eye on his career path.
Notsomuch anymore unless something has changed in how stories like these play in the media and with the public.
Wednesday, April 2
Opportunity Lost (Fallout Of Short Term Planning)
Problem:
(Hacks & Wonks, April 1st)
We also knew that eventually the government would be unable to sustain the freeze any longer. We would be able to claim the moral high ground when they finally moved to lift the freeze and be rewarded in the media for being in front of the issue. We'd earn some credibility on policy in the eyes of the folks paying attention, something that we haven't always had with our big policy pitches the last few elections.Good idea, right? Take your lumps early, but win the battle in the long game.sigh
Suffice it to say, we backed off our outspoken support for removing the freeze.
Result:
(Winnipeg Free Press Editorial, Today)
The tuition freeze arose out of the 1999 election that brought Gary Doer to power with a promise to offer young people hope and it has been sustained since by political calculations. Unfortunately, it was those same kind of considerations that led Progressive Conservative Party leader Hugh McFadyen to endorse the model in last year's provincial election. It will be interesting to see what position he adopts following the budget.
Opportunity Lost Followup
Not bad. Got the right messaging in today, though I think this isn't the type of issue you use to play to voters as a wide swath, but rather a niche issue used to wedge the NDP from their own core support groups. (Not that the student unions would ever break ranks with the NDP - no matter what they tell you. Still, the union complains, it's one less group patting the NDP on the back.)
[Link]
Conservative advanced education critic Myrna Driedger (Charleswood) said that she never saw any evidence during the election campaign that Doer was abandoning the freeze.
"It's here in black and white. It is the party brochure, and in fact there is a line in here that says they'll extend the freeze," Driedger said. "It certainly makes you wonder if they've misled voters."
Driedger said the Tories believe the tuition freeze was "good politics but bad policy. It's very harmful to the quality of education here."
While Waiting In Line For Drinks At The Moose Game Last Night...
Tuesday, April 1
Opportunity Lost
Stuart Murray took a fair number of hits, but one of the most unfair was the criticism he took for being clear on the Tory position in regards to the post secondary tuition freeze. Honestly, it was one of the few issues where we held a principled and consistent position.
Many members of the party (and a few in caucus) wanted him to tone down his vocal opposition to the policy. They felt that it was too difficult campaigning when you were telling middle-class Manitobans that it would cost them more to send their kids to school. Toss in a few people who just bought into the idea that low tuition was just sound public policy, and maybe it is fair to say taking the opposite side - while correct from a policy point of view - was a net negative.
However, I still argued that we needed to stay in front of the issue and remain consistently opposed. We knew that the longer the province held out, the more damage the policy was going to cause our institutions and the louder the crys of opposition would grow. The newspaper was already behind lifting the freeze, most of the university heads as well. Manitoba's opinion makers were headed towards the Tory position.
We also knew that eventually the government would be unable to sustain the freeze any longer. We would be able to claim the moral high ground when they finally moved to lift the freeze and be rewarded in the media for being in front of the issue. We'd earn some credibility on policy in the eyes of the folks paying attention, something that we haven't always had with our big policy pitches the last few elections.
Many members of the party (and a few in caucus) wanted him to tone down his vocal opposition to the policy. They felt that it was too difficult campaigning when you were telling middle-class Manitobans that it would cost them more to send their kids to school. Toss in a few people who just bought into the idea that low tuition was just sound public policy, and maybe it is fair to say taking the opposite side - while correct from a policy point of view - was a net negative.
However, I still argued that we needed to stay in front of the issue and remain consistently opposed. We knew that the longer the province held out, the more damage the policy was going to cause our institutions and the louder the crys of opposition would grow. The newspaper was already behind lifting the freeze, most of the university heads as well. Manitoba's opinion makers were headed towards the Tory position.
We also knew that eventually the government would be unable to sustain the freeze any longer. We would be able to claim the moral high ground when they finally moved to lift the freeze and be rewarded in the media for being in front of the issue. We'd earn some credibility on policy in the eyes of the folks paying attention, something that we haven't always had with our big policy pitches the last few elections.
Good idea, right? Take your lumps early, but win the battle in the long game.
sigh
Suffice it to say, we backed off our outspoken support for removing the freeze.
Suffice it to say, we backed off our outspoken support for removing the freeze.
sigh
Suffice it to say, there isn't a single Tory in this article on the NDP backing away from the freeze.*
So now the NDP will receive the kudos from the opinion makers for belatedly doing the right thing. And we'll around to say, "Yeah, we woulda did that too!" to anyone who asks.**
Suffice it to say, there isn't a single Tory in this article on the NDP backing away from the freeze.*
So now the NDP will receive the kudos from the opinion makers for belatedly doing the right thing. And we'll around to say, "Yeah, we woulda did that too!" to anyone who asks.**
That's a shame.
* - I'm not sold that they'll lift the freeze. This would be the year to do it, but this could just as well be the lower expectations Doer at work, before "surprising" everyone next week with a continuation of the freeze. I'm going to be watching this one closely to see how it plays.
** - I hope that's how we spin it, as bad as it is for spin. What would be really terrible is if we come out 'fighting for students' and criticize lifting the freeze because of how it'll "hurt enrolment" and "keep poor Manitobans from attending." While I'm sure we'll take the weak spin tact, I'm unable to completely rule out the latter one. Can you?
** - I hope that's how we spin it, as bad as it is for spin. What would be really terrible is if we come out 'fighting for students' and criticize lifting the freeze because of how it'll "hurt enrolment" and "keep poor Manitobans from attending." While I'm sure we'll take the weak spin tact, I'm unable to completely rule out the latter one. Can you?
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