Nanos Numbers
[link]
CPC: 32% (-6)
Lib: 30% (+4)
NDP: 20% (+2)
Bloc: 9% (-1)
Green: 10% (+3)
* - (change from election results)
** - numbers do not add to 100 due to rounding
Some comments:
- Are the voters having buyers' remorse? Unlikely for reasons explained below, but we'll know better when the next poll is done in December.
- Check out the "Western Support"...CPC (52% ---> 38%) and Lib (16% ---> 27%)...Anyone want to bet a quarter that these are accurate reflections of voter preference in the west? The lion's share of the swing comes from this column and does anyone feel that Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae or Dominic LeBlanc will be able to grow Liberal fortunes in the West? Maybe a little, but by that much?
- Are the voters having buyers' remorse? Unlikely for reasons explained below, but we'll know better when the next poll is done in December.
- Check out the "Western Support"...CPC (52% ---> 38%) and Lib (16% ---> 27%)...Anyone want to bet a quarter that these are accurate reflections of voter preference in the west? The lion's share of the swing comes from this column and does anyone feel that Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae or Dominic LeBlanc will be able to grow Liberal fortunes in the West? Maybe a little, but by that much?
- (Though it wouldn't surprise me in the least if there are a few Tories like myself who are annoyed at the deficit talk by the Tories, so maybe, just maybe, a few of the points are an accurate swing.)
- Ontario is also kinda interesting as well, and it's nothing but spin coming from Kinsella when he writes that the Nanos poll bodes well for "Prime Minister Ignatieff". CPC (36% ---> 39%) and Lib (36% ---> 34%). The road back to a Liberal minority goes through Ontario and they'll need much stronger numbers than these to do it. (They cannot get a majority in the foreseeable future.)
- As an aside, Kinsella is right about this though: "UPDATE: And more. Ask John McCain how this kind of stuff works out for the incumbent party."
(I still hold out hope that Harper and Flaherty are doing the "sell low expectations then beat them" game on deficits.)
(I still hold out hope that Harper and Flaherty are doing the "sell low expectations then beat them" game on deficits.)
- The Liberals are going to poll a point or two higher than their actual support between now and their leadership race. So long as "anyone" can be leading them into the next election, people will project their preferred leadership candidate into that spot. Once a leader is set in place, their number will settle back to their actual polling position.
- "We now return you to regularly scheduled Green Party non-election support already in progress."
Wow, any 'right-leaner' so fixated on the polls this soon after the election clearly has a few insecurity issues! Too bad you haven't bothered to dissect how the economic back-peddling in the Throne Speech gives lie to everything Harper was saying in September?
A poll is a poll - and at this particular juncture most aren't worthy of of the intellectual labour required to dissect their peculiar inanities. But keep it up anyway; the meanderings of a belly-button lint picking, tea-leaf reading Tory are always good for a laugh!
Posted by
BeerBellyBuddah |
11:09 AM
Who was fixated? I wrote this up on a fifteen-minute coffee break and never thought about it again.
And I do believe that I have written how unimpressed I am with the Tory spinning on potential deficits a couple of times...Heck, the Winnipeg Sun even ran a snippet of one of my posts criticizing the gov't on the subject about two weeks ago.
You're two for two Triple-B. Enjoy that chuckle.
Posted by
The Hack |
10:12 PM
Mea-culpa. Sorry for confusing your opining on the Nanos poll with a 'fixation'. Don't know how I missed it the first time...
After re-reading the piece it's clear you're correct. A second reading reveals to me your text is really just a product of a ideological fart derived from a nano-second though-cycle. My apologies for not realizing how little thought you actually put into it. Alas, your comment ["I wrote this up on a fifteen-minute coffee break and never thought about it again."] should be respected.
Of course, that's the problem with too many posts - a paucity of reflection. Too often people "never" revisit or think about what they have written. Keep it up!
Posted by
BeerBellyBuddah |
7:55 AM
Oh Triple-B, you do so have my number. Whatever am I going to do?
I guess going back to the original point of yours that commenting on a poll right now is a waste of time and effort, what does that suggest about commenting about someone else's comments on a poll right now?
Posted by
The Hack |
10:30 AM