UBC Election Market Final Update
I took a bath buying into the Tory Majority at the exact wrong time. Dropped down from $20 up to $35 down at the worst time. Switched the position and rode it back up. Also bought into the Liberal Plurality cheap and made a few off of it. I'm sitting at $15 up and have the following major positions:
Liberal Plurality: 200 shares at approximately $10. (Pays $200 if they form government. $0 if they don't. Don't expect them to win, but the odds are good enough to try.)
Liberal Plurality: 200 shares at approximately $10. (Pays $200 if they form government. $0 if they don't. Don't expect them to win, but the odds are good enough to try.)
Tory Majority: 150 shares at approximately $14. (Pays $150 if they form government. $0 otherwise. Again, this is a odds play, though if it hits $20 tomorrow, I might take the money.)
Minority Gov't (Either party): 194 shares at approximately $175 dollars. I was going to sell if the shares neared $0.95/share this weekend, but it's clear they won't. There's about 10% of growth left in the stock, so I'll probably hold until E-night now. If it's a minority, the extra $19 bucks offsets some of the long shots. If a majority does hit, the longshot offsets the loss here.
From a purely financial standpoint, a Liberal minority would pay me off rather well this election.
Overall thoughts on the market...Not bad, but there just wasn't enough movement in this election to really make any real loot. I made a little off the Greens early, but lost out when the Tories dropped in the last ten days. (Never would have predicted it quite honestly.)
Oh well, I'll be putting another couple hundred in to play when the next one happens in spring 2010.
Minority Gov't (Either party): 194 shares at approximately $175 dollars. I was going to sell if the shares neared $0.95/share this weekend, but it's clear they won't. There's about 10% of growth left in the stock, so I'll probably hold until E-night now. If it's a minority, the extra $19 bucks offsets some of the long shots. If a majority does hit, the longshot offsets the loss here.
From a purely financial standpoint, a Liberal minority would pay me off rather well this election.
Overall thoughts on the market...Not bad, but there just wasn't enough movement in this election to really make any real loot. I made a little off the Greens early, but lost out when the Tories dropped in the last ten days. (Never would have predicted it quite honestly.)
Oh well, I'll be putting another couple hundred in to play when the next one happens in spring 2010.
Have you considered a coalition?
Posted by
unclebob |
8:34 AM
Not an option on the stock market.
Also, unlikely to happen until the new year at the earliest. Harper will get first choice by convention and will have to be defeated before that would even been extended.
Posted by
The Hack |
8:53 AM
I'd love to buy into such a market, but would want it to be global (or at least, say, G7) for liquidity's sake. You're right; in general, these things are too static, with too few 'credible variables' to reach its full potential.
Posted by
Anonymous |
12:48 PM