Well.....*sigh*....Fire It Up
I really did believe that the Liberals were not going to be so stupid as to put themselves into a no-win situation, but the ratcheting up of the Afghanistan rhetoric by Dion following the Manley Report leads us to no other conclusion than this:
We're going to the polls. Soon.
Unless you see the Liberals split horribly over the issue - entirely possible - they will follow their leader into an election they cannot win because unlike Stephen Harper's 2005 gambit where his party was behind but with momentum, there is no reason to suggest that Dion will benefit from the numerous breaks required for an upset.
Instead, I believe that the Tories will gain seats. Maybe enough for a slim majority, but likely a dozen still short.
You'll see the Tories fall short of hoped for gains in Quebec (they'll pick up, but not as many as they would think), while surprising with stronger than anticipated pick ups in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
The talk post-election will be how surprising uncharacteristic the election was since the gov't gained support during the campaign while the opposition dropped, reversing the usual trend.
The Tories - filthy rich compared to the Liberals - will hardly break a sweat to spend the limit. The Liberals will simply add to their debt instead of the seat count. (And as an extra bonus, some believe the Liberals would really cook their own geese by immediately turfing Dion, sparking yet another costly leadership contest to further pile on the liabilities. Seriously, for political parties, we're talking epic levels of debt here.)
The NDP will break even on seats and dollars while spending their most ever.
The Bloc will lose a handful to the Tories. Duceppe won't leave fast enough. (In fact, his final week campaigning from somewhere tropical will be the first clue that he is checking out.)
The Greens will continue to hold zero seats in the House of Commons. Liz May will complain that the lack of a debate invite was the cause. This, while ignoring the fact that she made an idiotic choice running against Peter Mackay instead of running in London or Vancouver Island or ANYWHERE without major competition where she would have earned a "leader's pity seat".
And Harper will come back with a 140-145 seat minority and will run out another two years before we do it all again with the stakes being that it will be majority or bust for our Prime Minister.
We're going to the polls. Soon.
Unless you see the Liberals split horribly over the issue - entirely possible - they will follow their leader into an election they cannot win because unlike Stephen Harper's 2005 gambit where his party was behind but with momentum, there is no reason to suggest that Dion will benefit from the numerous breaks required for an upset.
Instead, I believe that the Tories will gain seats. Maybe enough for a slim majority, but likely a dozen still short.
You'll see the Tories fall short of hoped for gains in Quebec (they'll pick up, but not as many as they would think), while surprising with stronger than anticipated pick ups in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
The talk post-election will be how surprising uncharacteristic the election was since the gov't gained support during the campaign while the opposition dropped, reversing the usual trend.
The Tories - filthy rich compared to the Liberals - will hardly break a sweat to spend the limit. The Liberals will simply add to their debt instead of the seat count. (And as an extra bonus, some believe the Liberals would really cook their own geese by immediately turfing Dion, sparking yet another costly leadership contest to further pile on the liabilities. Seriously, for political parties, we're talking epic levels of debt here.)
The NDP will break even on seats and dollars while spending their most ever.
The Bloc will lose a handful to the Tories. Duceppe won't leave fast enough. (In fact, his final week campaigning from somewhere tropical will be the first clue that he is checking out.)
The Greens will continue to hold zero seats in the House of Commons. Liz May will complain that the lack of a debate invite was the cause. This, while ignoring the fact that she made an idiotic choice running against Peter Mackay instead of running in London or Vancouver Island or ANYWHERE without major competition where she would have earned a "leader's pity seat".
And Harper will come back with a 140-145 seat minority and will run out another two years before we do it all again with the stakes being that it will be majority or bust for our Prime Minister.
Good post - I think your sense of the likely outcome is pretty spot on.
The Liberals aren't even organized enough to run a byelection campaign without major infighting - despite what any polls say, I'm not sure how they could take that organization into a federal election campaign and not face a meltdown. The question is whether they'll actually vote against the government in sufficient numbers to defeat it. I wouldn't rule out a flip-flop yet, nor having more than a few MPs call in "sick" for that vote.
I wonder if those MPs in the Liberal caucus who are stumping for a vote aren't also from the Ignatieff and Rae camps. They might be hoping that the loss of a few seats now (rather than many more further down the road) might be just the event they need to be able to turf Dion and move on. Interesting times...
Posted by
Prairie Topiary |
1:25 PM
Only variable you've left out is the increasing perception of the government gagging any potential 'alternative voices' in agriculture (pissing off a chunk of their base support) and other areas. Something that might melt during a campaign, but could possibly be hammered on.
Posted by
Iain |
4:22 PM
liblogs.ca, to the contrary, the Liberals aren't suicidal. Harper has them over a barrel, but it's hardly political death.
I have a feeling the budget will be hard for the Liberals to vote against, so no joy there. Afghanistan rips open the Liberal party and they won't want that going into an election.
Not to mention the very serious money issues the Libs have, which you point out.
The week between the budget and the supposed time of the Afghanistan vote are four by-elections, two or three of which are expected to go Liberal and one is probably going CPC. If the Liberals get a by-election bounce then they aren't going to want to change the channel for a while. Certainly not over Afghanistan.
If they lose DMCR . . . Dion's hand-picked appointee . . . well, it's Outremont all over again. _No way_ Dion allows the David Orchard factor to become an issue going into an election.
And the final point . . . an election is about the Leaders. Dion needs another year of ESL first.
Sorry Hack, I think it's all just talk. (See last budget, Throne Speech, Dion's acceptance speech, etc.)
Cheers,
lance
Posted by
lance |
8:35 PM
It will be very interesting to see what they do with the Afghanistan vote. They can't sit on their hands for that one, can they? They can't let their members vote against party line in a confidence vote. I agree .. I think Dion is losing his patience and will take us into an election. It's a gamble that will likely lead to the end of his career, but he's gotta do it.
Posted by
cherenkov |
9:31 PM
Lance,
Your post is well thought out and logical, but sadly Dion is neither of those things. It makes absolutely no sense for the Liberals to want an election right now, but Mr. Dion has backed himself into a corner. There's only so many times that you can threaten to topple the govenment before the electorate as a whole tunes you out completly and Dion is quickly getting to that point. Harper calling his bluff has pushed him into a no win situation and no matter if the Liberal Party is ready to fight a campaign, Afghanistan is an issue that he has can't let pass. Sorry, but I agree with Hack, we're heading to the polls for an election that likely isn't going to change anything nationally.
Posted by
Aaron |
9:26 AM
Dion is putty in Harpers hands.
Posted by
Michael |
1:17 AM