I'll get into the details of what went right (some) and wrong (lots) post election, but I ended up being lazy tonight instead of writing. (Played a poker tourney. 41st out of 685. Good for $8.50 on a $3.30 entry.)
Let put up the pre-election predictions on the big board:
Flin Flon - NDP Gerard Jennisen
Thompson - NDP Steve Ashton
Rupertsland - NDP Eric Robinson
The Pas - NDP Oscar Lathlin
Swan River - NDP Rosanne Wowchuk
Dauphin-Roblin - NDP Stan Struthers
Ste. Rose - PC Stu Brise
Russell - PC Len Derkach
Minnedosa - PC Leann Rowat
Arthur Virden - PC Larry Maguire
Turtle Mountain - PC Cliff Cullen
Brandon East - PC Mike Waddell
Brandon West - PC Rick Borotsik
Portage La Prairie - PC David Faurschou
Carmen - PC Blaine Pederson
Pembina - PC Peter George Dyck
Interlake - PC Garry Wasylowski
Morris - PC Mavis Tallieu
Lakeside - PC Ralph Eichler
Gimli - NDP Peter Bjornson
Lac Du Bonnet - PC Gerald Hawranik
Selkirk - NDP Greg Dewar
Springfield - PC Ron Schuler
Steinbach - PC Kelvin Goertzen
Emerson - PC Cliff Graydon
LaVerendrye - PC Bob Stefaniuk
Assiniboia - NDP Jim Rondeau
Kirkfield Park - PC Chris Krozier
St. James - NDP Bonnie Korzeniowski
Charleswood - PC Myrna Dreidger
Tuxedo - PC Heather Stefanson
River Heights - Lib Jon Gerrard
Fort Whyte - PC Hugh McFadyen
Fort Garry - NDP Kerri Irvin-Ross
Lord Roberts - NDP Diane McGifford
St. Norbert - PC Tara Brousseau
Central & North Winnipeg
Inkster - Lib Kevin Lamoureux
The Maples - NDP Mohinder Saran
Minto - NDP Andrew Swan
Woseley - NDP Rob Altimeyer
Fort Rouge - NDP Jennifer Howard
Point Douglas - NDP George Hicks
Wellington - NDP Flor Marcelino
St. John's - NDP Gord Mackintosh
Burrows - NDP Doug Martindale
Kildonan - NDP Dave Chomiak
River East - PC Bonnie Mitchelson
Rossmere - NDP Erna Braun
Elmwood - NDP Jim Maloway
Concordia - NDP Gary Doer
Radisson - PC Linda West
Transcona - NDP Darryl Reid
St. Boniface - NDP Greg Selinger
St. Vital - NDP Nancy Allan
Southdale - PC Jack Reimer
Seine River - PC Steve Andjelic
Riel - NDP Christine Melnyk
So where am I thirty-something days later? A little more pesimistic on the Tories unfortunately. We didn't run a very good campaign, something that surprised me and costs us a couple of ridings I had thought it would put over the top.
Swing Interlake back to the NDP
. This one closes to a couple hundred votes gap, but we needed a stronger overall campaign to move it.
I just don't feel that St. Norbert
is going to move anymore. Let's place it back in the NDP camp
I've got money on the race, but I'll likely to lose it. Despite my better instincts, shift Kirkfield Park over to the NDP
So that's three moving to them, but it's not all bad news...
Fort Garry feels in play again and I wanted to take it at the beginning of the election, so chalk it up as a Tory pick off.
And despite all the chatter about the Liberals dropping Inkster and picking up Fort Rouge or Wellington...Can't see it myself. In the end I'll stay on Kevin's bandwagon and wish Rhonda and Paul good luck next time.
Watch for the margians to be close in about another handful of two or three as Tories challange, but fall short. For your television watching, here are the Top Ten Ridings that will have my attention most of the night are:
Brandon East - I couldn't go against Mike at this point. Hell, the NDP brought Len Evans home from Vancouver Island to stump. It'll be close either way and I'm going to dance with the one who brung me.
Interlake - Feel bad taking this one out of the win column, but maybe they'll surprise me yet. Garry is a superior candidate to Tom. Of that, there is no argument.
Portage La Prairie - Even Tories have this close, which means I would have lost my 1,000 vote buffer wager. Can't see it switching however. It has my attention because it's the only rural Tory riding anyone has possibly going south.
Kirkfield Park - Betcha the Tories wish they had sweet talked Peter De Smedt into running in his home riding now, eh? Chris told me at the dinner that he didn't want to become the only Tory to lose Kirkfield Park. He still might not, but it doesn't look good.
River Heights - Ashley Burner has appartently beaten Jon Gerrard in the sign war and by a fair gap. We'll see if that means anything, but my hunch is that it doesn't.
Wellington - Good luck to ya Rhonda.
Fort Rouge - Paul Hesse is the Liberal leader-in-waiting should he win, so while I see him falling short, it'll be a fun one to watch.
Kildonan - Alright Michael Diamond. You have my interest piqued.
Riel - Trudy Turner is someone the PC party needs. Simple as that. If not this time Trudy, let's try 'er again in four years. I'm not entirely convinced you don't prevail tonight, but I'm just not comfortable enough in calling it. Here's hoping I'm wrong.
Seine River - Was there any doubt? Still have us in the win column, which I figure we'll just clear by about 200 votes or so.