Monday, April 30
When Newfoundland & Labrador - Yes *That* Newfoundland & Labrador - Is Cutting Income Taxes By $155-Million....
...It tells you all you need about the "tax cutting debate" we're having during our Manitoba election.
We are not competitive. And more status quo in the form of Grinnin' Gary isn't going to help.
We are not competitive. And more status quo in the form of Grinnin' Gary isn't going to help.
Sunday, April 29
"If I only ate with my own caucus, I would eat alone."
Independent Quebec MP Andre Arthur delivered the line, one of a handful a gems found in this article which strengthens my belief that something fundamentally is shifting in Quebec.
Friday, April 27
And We Wonder Why Our Teachers' Authority Gets Questioned By The Kids
Bad Sign Of The Times:
And While I Like Where Their Hearts Were, Not The Right Way To Go About It:
Anthem flap suspends teacher
MIRAMICHI, N.B. (CP) — A New Brunswick teacher has been suspended after sending a student to the principal’s office for refusing to stand during the Canadian anthem. Eric Cameron, a Grade 9 teacher at Miramichi Valley High School, was disciplined following the incident last Thursday.
And While I Like Where Their Hearts Were, Not The Right Way To Go About It:
The student who wouldn’t stand was roughed up after the incident by others on a school bus. He wasn’t seriously hurt.
Going Dark For The Weekend
I have a cousin's social back home on Saturday night so I won't be around for posting until Sunday. Going to be a crazy five days coming up. I move on Tuesday, will be out of the city on Friday night/Saturday, and work has been insanely busy lately. (When I actually paid a visit to the boss to discuss workload-related issues, he showed me the company production numbers, which show I'm not dreaming...We really are cooking with gas right now.)
Some quick early-election observations, heckles and suggestions to carry you until Sunday evening...
- Safe starts all around. No one really staked out any ground that the others cannot claim/reclaim later in the campaign. The Tories are staking themselves on the PST cut, which should be remembered as the announcement of the week unless the Premier pulls a rabbit out of his hat.
- I don't care if it is legislation designed never to be used....You DO NOT allow a potential $25-30 Billion business deal to hinge on the vote of someone like Conrad Santos. While he may be gone now, someone will inevitably take up his quota of crazy.
- I'm finding the NDP campaign to be even less inspiring than I expected it to be. If million-dollar programs to cut water consumption is the best ya got Gary, well gee, it's been a nice run and all, but maybe it is time to go.
- In all seriousness, I have to think that the NDP knew that the Tories were going to crib the Harper '06 campaign of its "announcement a day" strategy, and Gary's holding back in order to blitz later in the race. (Or at the very least, to adapt announcements that respond.)
- I'm not going to dwell on it because I like the people involved, however the Blackberry Addicts have a point on The Winnipeg Sun coverage. I know newsroom resources get stretched farther and farther in today's media world, however if the shoe was on the other foot, I'd be screaming bloody murder.
- Wouldn't it be nice to spend even a couple of days going back and forth on a single issue? You know, actually debate the merits of an announcement rather than just check it off and move along? It is very easy to dislike how literally useless it would be to actually try and gauge productive promises from the non-productive ones unless you are already a policy wonk, which most are not. And somebody made an important point in an email today, when he essentially said that people don't believe the promises of anyone anymore, so who cares what the promises are. Results matter. (Which is also why Doer and gang aren't running away with this thing....When most people can't name a legacy after an eight-year government run.....There's a problem.)
- The Black Rod also had a good point the other night....How many more thumpings does it take for the media to start treating the Liberals as the rump party that they are?
- Overall: Quiet thus far. My original predictions still stand.
Ask me after the end of next week.
Some quick early-election observations, heckles and suggestions to carry you until Sunday evening...
- Safe starts all around. No one really staked out any ground that the others cannot claim/reclaim later in the campaign. The Tories are staking themselves on the PST cut, which should be remembered as the announcement of the week unless the Premier pulls a rabbit out of his hat.
- I don't care if it is legislation designed never to be used....You DO NOT allow a potential $25-30 Billion business deal to hinge on the vote of someone like Conrad Santos. While he may be gone now, someone will inevitably take up his quota of crazy.
- I'm finding the NDP campaign to be even less inspiring than I expected it to be. If million-dollar programs to cut water consumption is the best ya got Gary, well gee, it's been a nice run and all, but maybe it is time to go.
- In all seriousness, I have to think that the NDP knew that the Tories were going to crib the Harper '06 campaign of its "announcement a day" strategy, and Gary's holding back in order to blitz later in the race. (Or at the very least, to adapt announcements that respond.)
- I'm not going to dwell on it because I like the people involved, however the Blackberry Addicts have a point on The Winnipeg Sun coverage. I know newsroom resources get stretched farther and farther in today's media world, however if the shoe was on the other foot, I'd be screaming bloody murder.
- Wouldn't it be nice to spend even a couple of days going back and forth on a single issue? You know, actually debate the merits of an announcement rather than just check it off and move along? It is very easy to dislike how literally useless it would be to actually try and gauge productive promises from the non-productive ones unless you are already a policy wonk, which most are not. And somebody made an important point in an email today, when he essentially said that people don't believe the promises of anyone anymore, so who cares what the promises are. Results matter. (Which is also why Doer and gang aren't running away with this thing....When most people can't name a legacy after an eight-year government run.....There's a problem.)
- The Black Rod also had a good point the other night....How many more thumpings does it take for the media to start treating the Liberals as the rump party that they are?
- Overall: Quiet thus far. My original predictions still stand.
Ask me after the end of next week.
Lewis Mckenzie Now Lives In His Riding
I'd take the trade any day and twice on Sunday.
"I don't get it. The campaign worked so great in New York...."
Questions I Wish I Could Ask Myself....Part II
Help A Girl Out
Wednesday, April 25
Yuck
Come on Tories....Stop it with the way too cute by half promises and deliver some policy meat for the wonks that know better. (Loved the Brandon Charter package on Saturday for example.)
Doer et al will continue to hammer away saying that we're going to privatize Hydro. This wacky bill will not put an end to that. There is no good policy or legislative reason to justify a band on selling Hydro. As I pointed out just on Monday, there's already a law on the books saying that Manitobans should make the call, and frankly, that's not the worst place for the decision-making on the Crown Corp's future to be.
Doer et al will continue to hammer away saying that we're going to privatize Hydro. This wacky bill will not put an end to that. There is no good policy or legislative reason to justify a band on selling Hydro. As I pointed out just on Monday, there's already a law on the books saying that Manitobans should make the call, and frankly, that's not the worst place for the decision-making on the Crown Corp's future to be.
Extremely Bothersome
The rest of us need to understand: This government lies to us without compunction or apology about the most important files a government can be asked to handle.
Paul Wells damns the government this morning. Unfortunately for this card-carrying Tory...Rightfully so.
Not Sure Which One Makes Less Sense
1. That one of the more experienced political reporters in the province really does believe that Premier Gary Doer knew nothing about the Canad Inn Stadium proposal prior to its anouncement? (a fact pretty much demolished by Curtis Brown two weeks ago)
2. That Dan Lett is smart enough to know that the Gary Didn't Know Story makes no logical sense, however still felt that going along with the new urban legend in his otherwise okay column was a sound reporting, analysis & public service?
2. That Dan Lett is smart enough to know that the Gary Didn't Know Story makes no logical sense, however still felt that going along with the new urban legend in his otherwise okay column was a sound reporting, analysis & public service?
Tuesday, April 24
After Making Fun Of Tom The Other Day....
....I'll give him credit for being bang on today:
The punchline is that this move costs less then then income tax cut and would likely be better politics.
Now I expect that at the dinner tonight, I'll be getting and giving some ribbing over the PST cut. I'm still hopeful that the party will be aggressive and find room for more tax cutting to go with it. The money is there and the province badly needs it.
Manitoba is already competitive with other provinces on the PST.
We're tied with British Colombia for the third lowest rate in Canada, behind Saskatchewan at 5% and Alberta, which has no retail sales tax.
Where we're not competitive is on income taxes. Manitoba has the highest incomes taxes for middle and high-income earners west of Quebec.
So if the goal is to be more competitive on taxes, income taxes -- not the PST -- should be the focus.
The best income-tax policy going these days would be to significantly raise the personal exemption -- the amount people can earn before they pay taxes.Right now it's at $7,834. If you jacked it up immediately to $10,000, you'd eliminate provincial income taxes for around 40,000 people.
The punchline is that this move costs less then then income tax cut and would likely be better politics.
Now I expect that at the dinner tonight, I'll be getting and giving some ribbing over the PST cut. I'm still hopeful that the party will be aggressive and find room for more tax cutting to go with it. The money is there and the province badly needs it.
Why Not Ask The People Mr. Premier?
While I like a party taking a stand on an issue like this - 'Doer backs new stadium' - it seems ridiculous to me that we wouldn't use the election to hold a referendum on the question. This could be an $80 million project for the levels of government, and while I would gladly vote to build a new stadium, I'm not sure that the rest of the city would agree.
We're going to have people going to the ballot box anyhow...Why not use that to our advantage and raelly guage the support?
We're going to have people going to the ballot box anyhow...Why not use that to our advantage and raelly guage the support?
"Gary Doer has failed to develop the private sector in this province..."
Jon Gerrard sums up the problem rather nicely in that quote, doesn't he?
Don't Get The Campaign Buttons Ready Just Yet...
One of the strangest stories that came out of last week had to be the one suggesting that it is "Majority or Bust" for Stephen Harper. While losing seats (and government) would certainly do him in, any growth of five to ten seats or more will be plenty to retain control over the party and keep the ambitious folk at bay.
That being said, the Toronto Star named a bunch of "contenders", and while he agrees with me that Harper's pretty safe, Paul Tuns examines the usual suspects named in the TorStar piece. I particularly enjoyed this piece:
Mr. Bernier is an individual I certainly am curious about and following from afar. I kinda hate the fact that we'd be going back to Quebec for a leader (because I'd like to think that leadership can emerge from you know, the other nine provinces and three territories), but I could look past that for the right leader. It is extremely early to start picking teams, however Mr. Bernier's politics intrigues me, and in about a decade, I could very well find myself on his team should he choose to run.
That being said, the Toronto Star named a bunch of "contenders", and while he agrees with me that Harper's pretty safe, Paul Tuns examines the usual suspects named in the TorStar piece. I particularly enjoyed this piece:
3. Industry Minister Maxime Bernier, 44. His English is poor and his connections to the Montreal Economic Institute might taint him a tad too libertarian to get elected, but by every account from people who've met him, he's impressive: personable, attractive, intelligent. And he really believes in making government smaller. He'd be my choice. And if I were prime minister, I'd make him my finance minister. He might be leader one day but not any time soon.
Mr. Bernier is an individual I certainly am curious about and following from afar. I kinda hate the fact that we'd be going back to Quebec for a leader (because I'd like to think that leadership can emerge from you know, the other nine provinces and three territories), but I could look past that for the right leader. It is extremely early to start picking teams, however Mr. Bernier's politics intrigues me, and in about a decade, I could very well find myself on his team should he choose to run.
Smart
Prime Minister Harper shows how to deal with the goofiest aspect of the personal stylist story.
With humour.
I'm telling ya. As basic respect for pols gets further beaten to death, a sharp wit will still win over the voters.
With humour.
I'm telling ya. As basic respect for pols gets further beaten to death, a sharp wit will still win over the voters.
Listening to Prime Time Sports Right Now....
Bob McCowen and Steven Brunt have former CFL commish Tom Wright on and they are discussing expansion to Ottawa and Halifax.
I'm on the record...If Halifax gets a team, I will be roadtripping for the first Blue Bomber game out that way and good luck trying to keep me from the city's first Grey Cup. That weekend of partying could become the epic standard that everyone else would then have to try and match.
I'm on the record...If Halifax gets a team, I will be roadtripping for the first Blue Bomber game out that way and good luck trying to keep me from the city's first Grey Cup. That weekend of partying could become the epic standard that everyone else would then have to try and match.
Monday, April 23
Note
As you can see below, the rest of the predictions are up. The work computer is slow today, so no time for fancy formatting and such (maybe tonight at home). In the end, this is how I have it shaking out:
NDP: 28
PC: 27
Lib: 2
Doer holds a minority, but an extremely slim one. David Faurschou might just realize his dream of becoming speaker in the above scenario.
NDP: 28
PC: 27
Lib: 2
Doer holds a minority, but an extremely slim one. David Faurschou might just realize his dream of becoming speaker in the above scenario.
Manitoba Election Predictions Part IV - "Where Majorities Go To Die"
Recap:
Entering the city, I've got it 18-8 for the Tories, with the Liberals still trying to find the scoreboard. As with before....The gimmes:
The Odds Are So One-Sided, There's No Money To Be Made:
NDP: (16)
Burrows - Duck.
Elmwood - Duck.
Fort Rouge - Damn, couldn't do a "Goose!" joke here, because this one deserves some set up. The NDP and Jennifer Howard should win this easy. The women of the race (Howard, Tory Christine Waddell) will be the story of the race, however the Liberal Paul Hesse seems like a nice guy (met him two weeks ago at a mutual friend's b-day party) and I would be lying if I didn't wish him a better chance than likely exists within his party. It's possible Waddell could drive moderate Tories to him, but not likely in the droves required to take Tim Sale's former riding from Howard.
Kildonan - I really thought Dave Chomiak was going to pack it in this time. Until that happens, the riding should stay in the NDP. When it happens, watch it become a swing seat.
Lord Roberts - This is a riding that the Tories should spend some time looking at seriously over the next four years. Maybe it's not there, but there feels like there could be the ingredients of an upset present.
The Maples - The noise is just noise. The NDP hold.
Minto - The other night, Turner Turner really talked up her friend Kenny, who is running for us in the riding. Still, Andrew Swan is being groomed the same way they groomed Theresa Oswald and it's clear he is moving up in their party.
Point Douglas - Besides Fort Rouge, there's no where else in the city I would rather live than in PD in one of the Waterfront Drive Condos. Alas, the injection of the condos is unlikely to change the voting demographics in the riding.
Rossmere - How is it possible that I was told Harry wasn't running again at least eight weeks ago and yet the media played it up as a big shocker this week? I don't get that. While there are some that believe it could potentially swing (and considering the civic results in October, it is possible to some extent), I believe that the other parties needed candidates on the ground sooner than now to take it from the NDP.
St. Johns - Duck.
St. Boniface - Duck.
St. Vital - Duck. (Sorry Grant.)
Transcona - Goose! Joke finally worked.
Wellington - When I moved in October and shut the blog down for awhile, I missed it. Despite the occassional dry spell from posting, always know that I'm thinking I should be posting more. Which is why I'm very grateful to a reader and her adorable grandaughter, who paid me a visit just before Christmas and lent me an extra computer that they were not using. I've since upgraded my system but the older model proved to be a worthy stop gap in a pinch, and you don't know how appreciative I was to the reader for her generousity. Unlike the majority of my readers, we were not introduced prior to an email exchange regarding the "donation". She simply wanted to help me get back into blogging.
That reader was Wellington Liberal candidate Rhonda Gordon Powers.
So you know this just pains me to write off her chances his early, despite the shenanigans within the NDP in the riding. Still, I would be foolish to predict anything but an NDP hold, so I leave it to Rhonda to make me look the fool.
Wolsely - This is why the Green Party as a movement is not ready to play in the big game yet. Because of all the ridings in Manitoba, this would be their best shot were they only to run a good candidate with a solid campaign effort. So where do they run their leader?
Concordia - Here. Makes not a lick of sense. It is similar to Elizabeth May running against Peter Mackay. Goes to show you that the Green Party still favours stunts to strategy, and still needs more seasoning before getting invited to the big dance.
The Premier will hold his riding, but with the Green Leader and Tory Ken Waddell running against Doer, the chances are high that Gary will be irritated just enough that he says something stupid at some point in the race. One can only hope.
Liberals (1)
River Heights - If they weren't going to abandon Dr. Jon in '99 or '03, I can't see the voters of RH moving now unless the Tories look like they are destined to win. I'm friends with Ashley Burner the Tory candidate in the riding, so it's hard to say that she's "Dead Tory Walking". Still, I think she's too young to be taken too seriously by the folks of the riding.
PC (5)
Charleswood - Myrna Driedger holds.
Kirkfield Park - Chris Krozier did his heaviest lifting in the nomination race. I would have prefered a candidate who was bringing a little more experience and cache to the table in this riding...A star who could have been safe in the riding, allowing them to campaign in nearby Assiniboia or St. James. Oh well, it's still a win for the good guys.
River East - Bonnie Mitchelson holds and remains the Premier's MLA.
Tuxedo - Bernie Bellan and the Liberals were smart to move him out of the riding.
Fort Whyte - Even if Denis Rocan can't overcome his own anger at losing a riding that he owned for twenty-plus years, and decides to run against Hugh, it is still a given which way it is going. And how about this fun tidbit from Kinsella's blog the other day?
Take The Smart Money
NDP (4)
Assiniboia - Interesting mix of candidates, with everyone bringing someone of profile to the mix. While I have little doubt support will revert back to more traditional patterns making it a closer race, Jim Rondeau could very well hold.
Fort Garry - I want to go with Shaun, I really do. But the math provincially tells me that we can't win every riding we target and I'll chance that the NDP hold this one. I'll probably kick myself on election night, but if we win everything I think we'll win already, FG would put us into a majority.
St. James - Were I a Tory strategist, this would be one of the top three ridings I target in 2011. It should go Tory and with the right Tory become a strong hold.
Riel - I would think it is next to impossible to spend any time with Trudy Turner and not get swept up with her energy and optimism. She is exactly the type of person that the party needs right now. She reaches into communities that the party has long-struggled to win over and her natural crediblity within those communities would be a tremendous asset.
Plus, she shared a plate of ribs with me last week. Nice lady.
Too bad I just can't bring myself to call an upset here. It just doesn't feel right. If I start to call Riel for the Tories, then I have to call a majority government for the Tories, and while that outcome is possible, I can't see it. Next race Trudy. Could be closer than you think.
Liberal (1)
Inkster - I'm not about to go against Kevin Lamoureux. I believe he wins.
PC (4)
Radisson - A testament to hard work and long term planning. A lesson to challangers everywhere.
St. Norbert - A naturally Tory riding. Should revert back to the party with a little work.
Seine River - I'll probably spend most of my campaign time in this riding, and while my personal track record of working on winning campaigns is a poor one (2 provincial defeats, 1 federal defeat), I turned it around on the last civic campaign, backing a long shot winner. Jeff Browaty had a much harder path to victory last fall than Steve Andjelic has this spring. Bottom line, the numbers only add up to an NDP victory when the Tories are bottoming out.
Southdale - It is utterly ridiculous that I should be placing this riding in this section, but what can I say? Things have gone just goofy enough in the early sledding to make it one to watch, even if Jack Reimer wins solid on E-day.
Entering the city, I've got it 18-8 for the Tories, with the Liberals still trying to find the scoreboard. As with before....The gimmes:
The Odds Are So One-Sided, There's No Money To Be Made:
NDP: (16)
Burrows - Duck.
Elmwood - Duck.
Fort Rouge - Damn, couldn't do a "Goose!" joke here, because this one deserves some set up. The NDP and Jennifer Howard should win this easy. The women of the race (Howard, Tory Christine Waddell) will be the story of the race, however the Liberal Paul Hesse seems like a nice guy (met him two weeks ago at a mutual friend's b-day party) and I would be lying if I didn't wish him a better chance than likely exists within his party. It's possible Waddell could drive moderate Tories to him, but not likely in the droves required to take Tim Sale's former riding from Howard.
Kildonan - I really thought Dave Chomiak was going to pack it in this time. Until that happens, the riding should stay in the NDP. When it happens, watch it become a swing seat.
Lord Roberts - This is a riding that the Tories should spend some time looking at seriously over the next four years. Maybe it's not there, but there feels like there could be the ingredients of an upset present.
The Maples - The noise is just noise. The NDP hold.
Minto - The other night, Turner Turner really talked up her friend Kenny, who is running for us in the riding. Still, Andrew Swan is being groomed the same way they groomed Theresa Oswald and it's clear he is moving up in their party.
Point Douglas - Besides Fort Rouge, there's no where else in the city I would rather live than in PD in one of the Waterfront Drive Condos. Alas, the injection of the condos is unlikely to change the voting demographics in the riding.
Rossmere - How is it possible that I was told Harry wasn't running again at least eight weeks ago and yet the media played it up as a big shocker this week? I don't get that. While there are some that believe it could potentially swing (and considering the civic results in October, it is possible to some extent), I believe that the other parties needed candidates on the ground sooner than now to take it from the NDP.
St. Johns - Duck.
St. Boniface - Duck.
St. Vital - Duck. (Sorry Grant.)
Transcona - Goose! Joke finally worked.
Wellington - When I moved in October and shut the blog down for awhile, I missed it. Despite the occassional dry spell from posting, always know that I'm thinking I should be posting more. Which is why I'm very grateful to a reader and her adorable grandaughter, who paid me a visit just before Christmas and lent me an extra computer that they were not using. I've since upgraded my system but the older model proved to be a worthy stop gap in a pinch, and you don't know how appreciative I was to the reader for her generousity. Unlike the majority of my readers, we were not introduced prior to an email exchange regarding the "donation". She simply wanted to help me get back into blogging.
That reader was Wellington Liberal candidate Rhonda Gordon Powers.
So you know this just pains me to write off her chances his early, despite the shenanigans within the NDP in the riding. Still, I would be foolish to predict anything but an NDP hold, so I leave it to Rhonda to make me look the fool.
Wolsely - This is why the Green Party as a movement is not ready to play in the big game yet. Because of all the ridings in Manitoba, this would be their best shot were they only to run a good candidate with a solid campaign effort. So where do they run their leader?
Concordia - Here. Makes not a lick of sense. It is similar to Elizabeth May running against Peter Mackay. Goes to show you that the Green Party still favours stunts to strategy, and still needs more seasoning before getting invited to the big dance.
The Premier will hold his riding, but with the Green Leader and Tory Ken Waddell running against Doer, the chances are high that Gary will be irritated just enough that he says something stupid at some point in the race. One can only hope.
Liberals (1)
River Heights - If they weren't going to abandon Dr. Jon in '99 or '03, I can't see the voters of RH moving now unless the Tories look like they are destined to win. I'm friends with Ashley Burner the Tory candidate in the riding, so it's hard to say that she's "Dead Tory Walking". Still, I think she's too young to be taken too seriously by the folks of the riding.
PC (5)
Charleswood - Myrna Driedger holds.
Kirkfield Park - Chris Krozier did his heaviest lifting in the nomination race. I would have prefered a candidate who was bringing a little more experience and cache to the table in this riding...A star who could have been safe in the riding, allowing them to campaign in nearby Assiniboia or St. James. Oh well, it's still a win for the good guys.
River East - Bonnie Mitchelson holds and remains the Premier's MLA.
Tuxedo - Bernie Bellan and the Liberals were smart to move him out of the riding.
Fort Whyte - Even if Denis Rocan can't overcome his own anger at losing a riding that he owned for twenty-plus years, and decides to run against Hugh, it is still a given which way it is going. And how about this fun tidbit from Kinsella's blog the other day?
April 21, 2007 - Now that the Manitoba election has been called, I can disclose that Hugh McFadyen is a friend. We used to work together at Brokeback Consultants. When he told me, in confidence, that he was leaving to return home to Manitoba, I told him he was crazy. If he stayed, I told him, he'd be Ontario's Premier in no time.
Now, of course, I see that I had the right church, but the wrong pew.
Take The Smart Money
NDP (4)
Assiniboia - Interesting mix of candidates, with everyone bringing someone of profile to the mix. While I have little doubt support will revert back to more traditional patterns making it a closer race, Jim Rondeau could very well hold.
Fort Garry - I want to go with Shaun, I really do. But the math provincially tells me that we can't win every riding we target and I'll chance that the NDP hold this one. I'll probably kick myself on election night, but if we win everything I think we'll win already, FG would put us into a majority.
St. James - Were I a Tory strategist, this would be one of the top three ridings I target in 2011. It should go Tory and with the right Tory become a strong hold.
Riel - I would think it is next to impossible to spend any time with Trudy Turner and not get swept up with her energy and optimism. She is exactly the type of person that the party needs right now. She reaches into communities that the party has long-struggled to win over and her natural crediblity within those communities would be a tremendous asset.
Plus, she shared a plate of ribs with me last week. Nice lady.
Too bad I just can't bring myself to call an upset here. It just doesn't feel right. If I start to call Riel for the Tories, then I have to call a majority government for the Tories, and while that outcome is possible, I can't see it. Next race Trudy. Could be closer than you think.
Liberal (1)
Inkster - I'm not about to go against Kevin Lamoureux. I believe he wins.
PC (4)
Radisson - A testament to hard work and long term planning. A lesson to challangers everywhere.
St. Norbert - A naturally Tory riding. Should revert back to the party with a little work.
Seine River - I'll probably spend most of my campaign time in this riding, and while my personal track record of working on winning campaigns is a poor one (2 provincial defeats, 1 federal defeat), I turned it around on the last civic campaign, backing a long shot winner. Jeff Browaty had a much harder path to victory last fall than Steve Andjelic has this spring. Bottom line, the numbers only add up to an NDP victory when the Tories are bottoming out.
Southdale - It is utterly ridiculous that I should be placing this riding in this section, but what can I say? Things have gone just goofy enough in the early sledding to make it one to watch, even if Jack Reimer wins solid on E-day.
Does The Premier Forget His Own Legislation?
Major Hacks & Wonks brownie points to the first reporter who asks the Premier if he remembers that 15.3(1) of his Manitoba Hydro Protection Act prevents any Manitoba government from privatizing Manitoba Hydro without a referendum first.
Then ask him if he's simply getting on the "green movement bandwagon" by recycling his 1999 promise to "protect Manitoba Hydro"?
He brought in that bill six years ago, so I can understand if some of the newer beat reporters don't remember that it is on the books, but there has to be at least one reporter who smells the manure coming from this NDP scare tactic and has no problem putting the premier on the spot.
After all, its Grinnin' Gary who keeps bringing the topic up.
Then ask him if he's simply getting on the "green movement bandwagon" by recycling his 1999 promise to "protect Manitoba Hydro"?
He brought in that bill six years ago, so I can understand if some of the newer beat reporters don't remember that it is on the books, but there has to be at least one reporter who smells the manure coming from this NDP scare tactic and has no problem putting the premier on the spot.
After all, its Grinnin' Gary who keeps bringing the topic up.
I'm Scared
The Tories have a tax-cutting announcement later today. Based on Hugh's reaction to a Richard Cloutier's question on the radio this morning, I'm worried we're going to announce a PST cut.
I defended the federal GST cut at the time, because while I conceded it wasn't the best economics, I felt it was the best politics. However, having seen how the GST cut played itself out, I'm no longer convinced that the sales tax cut amounted to much support. The spin being used is that the sales tax cut was broad based and even helped lower income Canadians, which is true. Thing is, there have been measure after measure targeted towards the low brackets, but the middle bracket has been getting only marginal help. Wasn't it in the last provincial budget, where support for those on assistance was rising by $100 a month, yet overall tax cuts for the average family ranged between $30-$70 a year. Now that's not to begrudge those on assistance, but where is the fairness?
You don't have to like taxation to concede that some level of taxes is required. The sales tax is as good a means of revenue generation that the government could have. I hope I'm wrong and the Tories target income tax and business taxes and leaves the sales tax at 7%.
UPDATE: Darn.
I defended the federal GST cut at the time, because while I conceded it wasn't the best economics, I felt it was the best politics. However, having seen how the GST cut played itself out, I'm no longer convinced that the sales tax cut amounted to much support. The spin being used is that the sales tax cut was broad based and even helped lower income Canadians, which is true. Thing is, there have been measure after measure targeted towards the low brackets, but the middle bracket has been getting only marginal help. Wasn't it in the last provincial budget, where support for those on assistance was rising by $100 a month, yet overall tax cuts for the average family ranged between $30-$70 a year. Now that's not to begrudge those on assistance, but where is the fairness?
You don't have to like taxation to concede that some level of taxes is required. The sales tax is as good a means of revenue generation that the government could have. I hope I'm wrong and the Tories target income tax and business taxes and leaves the sales tax at 7%.
UPDATE: Darn.
I Would Be Remiss In My Blogging Duties If I Let This Pass Without Posting
Sunday, April 22
I Think I Was Taught That Manitoba's History Goes Back Further Than 1985
When the Liberal popular vote is above 20% and closer to 25%, the Tories usually form government, as they did in 1988, 1990 and 1995.
But when Liberal popularity drops to the mid-teens, which is where it's been stuck for a decade, the NDP tend to form government
Tom's right.......Except the last time that a popular NDP Premier with a tired government went for three majorities.
Just a lowly thirty years ago, Ed Schreyer learned that the Liberals could poll as low as 12.3% and it still wouldn't save the NDP government.
Beware of bad punditry, readers. Too many assumptions are made on generalizations. Remember how the analysts did in the civic election?
Manitoba Election Predictions Part III - "Making Money On Rural Ridings"
(My wireless is down at home - hence the slow down. If anyone knows why my wireless appears to be connecting to the hub, yet it won't flow anything back to my computer, I'll all ears.)
Where we left off....I had predicted 21 of the 26 non-Winnipeg seats, breaking them down as six for the NDP and fifteen for the Tories. Let's look at the rest:
Take The Smart Money
NDP (2)
Dauphin - Roblin - This is a big shame, because the riding should have been ripe for a serious Tory offensive, possibly a steal. However, the party needed to be organized and fighting it hard for at least six to eight months and that hasn't been happening. Natural shifts and anger towards the NDP's bungling of the Ranchers' Choice operation should make it closer, but in the end, Stan Struthers returns to Winnipeg.
Gimli - Peter Bjornson is a nice enough guy, but when he's officially "on" as a politician, no one comes across quite as smug and arrogant, yet completely clueless as well. It's a funny contradiction. Either way, he still seems to be a favorite at home and some of his biggest mis-steps somehow failed to bite him personally despite an obvious foolishness on his part (Seven Oaks School Division housing development for example). If Gimli switches, the Tories aren't only taking government, but a majority government.
PC (1)
Brandon West - Regular readers know my position on Rick Borotsik getting handed the nomination without working for it. Plus his personal popularity took a blow in conservative circles due to Rick's self-righteous stance towards the Alliance and the federal merger. That being said, he is a strong candidate and Scott Smith's strengths appear larger to those in Winnipeg than in Brandon (including to me, because it seems my opinion of the minister is always more favourable than it is to various Brandon-ites I speak with when visiting). The riding will make for some fun watching, but my hunch is that by May Long weekend, even word out of the NDP camps will be that Scott Smith is going down.
Play The Long Shot, Then Impress Your Friends & Make A Little Money On E-Night
PC (2)
Brandon-East - Spent too much time thinking about it to not call this riding this way and still feel right about it in the morning. Anyone looking at the riding with a truly analytic view should call it this way (though I acknowledge it'll be close). The riding has voted for "right wing" candidates in both the fall's civic election and the 2006 winter federal election. Wouldn't consistency suggest that all three levels should be reasonably within the same range if the voting public has a predisposition towards one party?
Mike Waddell is a stronger candidate than anyone else the Tories have put into place in the riding since before I was born. Think about that. Whereas the early-election nomination has been common-place, Waddell announced a year ago, then was building a team and working the riding for months and months. His organization will rival the NDP's in the riding.
In a cabinet full of acknowledged weaker players, Drew Caldwell is the only one that has ever been removed permanently by the Premier. His stint at Education was weak and troublesome (remember he told a riding to cook the enrollment books to increase their funding?), but let's not forget that he was Family Services Minister at a time when many problems began sprouting up, even if they did not bloom until after his "health-related" departure from cabinet, thus sinking fellow NDP MLA Christine Melnyk. So unlike all those many B-E elections where Len Evans was a perennial cabinet minister and overall party player, we're now talking about general backbencher and nothing more.
I really like the comparison of Drew Caldwell vs. Mike Waddell. Mike's going to pick up some support on simple energy alone. He appeals to the solid right in the riding, however he's also able to win over moderate Liberals as well, which is a swinging voting block in the riding.
I'm going to look at this riding from time to time, but in the end, I really feel this is a "long shot" worth calling early. By week three or so, Curtis Brown will start to pick up the trend line, and who knows, by the final weekend, people will be really watching it closer. Which is why now is the time to lay $10 against anyone's offer of $20. See how really confident they are in Drew Caldwell.
(I've got $50 willing to ride on the riding. First folks who offer 2 to 1 to my email gets in on it.)
Interlake - I'll admit knowing less on the ground about this riding than I do Brandon East, however I believe that many of the same intangibles are in play. Weak MLA taking it a little for granted vs. strong Tory candidate with a decent organization and some time in the field. Tory polling numbers in rural Manitoba that are running in the neighbourhood of 50% (including the northern numbers where there is no way the Tories get one-in-two). This is also a riding where the NDP incompetence on the BSE file surely will be remembered considering the crisis began the last time the NDP were looking for their vote.
If I'm going to be wrong on any predictions in the province, this will the riding I'm sure of it, but for now I'll play potential cabinet minister Garry Wasylowski against weak MLA Tom Nevakshonoff.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
So there you have it. My tally of:
Predicted over/under: 3.5
Tories: 18 (+4)
NDP: 8 (-4)
Tomorrow, let's look at the Winnipeg seats.
Where we left off....I had predicted 21 of the 26 non-Winnipeg seats, breaking them down as six for the NDP and fifteen for the Tories. Let's look at the rest:
Take The Smart Money
NDP (2)
Dauphin - Roblin - This is a big shame, because the riding should have been ripe for a serious Tory offensive, possibly a steal. However, the party needed to be organized and fighting it hard for at least six to eight months and that hasn't been happening. Natural shifts and anger towards the NDP's bungling of the Ranchers' Choice operation should make it closer, but in the end, Stan Struthers returns to Winnipeg.
Gimli - Peter Bjornson is a nice enough guy, but when he's officially "on" as a politician, no one comes across quite as smug and arrogant, yet completely clueless as well. It's a funny contradiction. Either way, he still seems to be a favorite at home and some of his biggest mis-steps somehow failed to bite him personally despite an obvious foolishness on his part (Seven Oaks School Division housing development for example). If Gimli switches, the Tories aren't only taking government, but a majority government.
PC (1)
Brandon West - Regular readers know my position on Rick Borotsik getting handed the nomination without working for it. Plus his personal popularity took a blow in conservative circles due to Rick's self-righteous stance towards the Alliance and the federal merger. That being said, he is a strong candidate and Scott Smith's strengths appear larger to those in Winnipeg than in Brandon (including to me, because it seems my opinion of the minister is always more favourable than it is to various Brandon-ites I speak with when visiting). The riding will make for some fun watching, but my hunch is that by May Long weekend, even word out of the NDP camps will be that Scott Smith is going down.
Play The Long Shot, Then Impress Your Friends & Make A Little Money On E-Night
PC (2)
Brandon-East - Spent too much time thinking about it to not call this riding this way and still feel right about it in the morning. Anyone looking at the riding with a truly analytic view should call it this way (though I acknowledge it'll be close). The riding has voted for "right wing" candidates in both the fall's civic election and the 2006 winter federal election. Wouldn't consistency suggest that all three levels should be reasonably within the same range if the voting public has a predisposition towards one party?
Mike Waddell is a stronger candidate than anyone else the Tories have put into place in the riding since before I was born. Think about that. Whereas the early-election nomination has been common-place, Waddell announced a year ago, then was building a team and working the riding for months and months. His organization will rival the NDP's in the riding.
In a cabinet full of acknowledged weaker players, Drew Caldwell is the only one that has ever been removed permanently by the Premier. His stint at Education was weak and troublesome (remember he told a riding to cook the enrollment books to increase their funding?), but let's not forget that he was Family Services Minister at a time when many problems began sprouting up, even if they did not bloom until after his "health-related" departure from cabinet, thus sinking fellow NDP MLA Christine Melnyk. So unlike all those many B-E elections where Len Evans was a perennial cabinet minister and overall party player, we're now talking about general backbencher and nothing more.
I really like the comparison of Drew Caldwell vs. Mike Waddell. Mike's going to pick up some support on simple energy alone. He appeals to the solid right in the riding, however he's also able to win over moderate Liberals as well, which is a swinging voting block in the riding.
I'm going to look at this riding from time to time, but in the end, I really feel this is a "long shot" worth calling early. By week three or so, Curtis Brown will start to pick up the trend line, and who knows, by the final weekend, people will be really watching it closer. Which is why now is the time to lay $10 against anyone's offer of $20. See how really confident they are in Drew Caldwell.
(I've got $50 willing to ride on the riding. First folks who offer 2 to 1 to my email gets in on it.)
Interlake - I'll admit knowing less on the ground about this riding than I do Brandon East, however I believe that many of the same intangibles are in play. Weak MLA taking it a little for granted vs. strong Tory candidate with a decent organization and some time in the field. Tory polling numbers in rural Manitoba that are running in the neighbourhood of 50% (including the northern numbers where there is no way the Tories get one-in-two). This is also a riding where the NDP incompetence on the BSE file surely will be remembered considering the crisis began the last time the NDP were looking for their vote.
If I'm going to be wrong on any predictions in the province, this will the riding I'm sure of it, but for now I'll play potential cabinet minister Garry Wasylowski against weak MLA Tom Nevakshonoff.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
So there you have it. My tally of:
Predicted over/under: 3.5
Tories: 18 (+4)
NDP: 8 (-4)
Tomorrow, let's look at the Winnipeg seats.
Friday, April 20
Thursday, April 19
Another Update
Okay, first: Congrats to The Proud & Unapologetic Winnipeg, Steve Andjelic. He captured the Seine River nomination last night and I look forward to helping his campaign (amongst others).
Second: My wireless network wasn't working when I got home last night, hence no posting. Hopefully I can get it working tonight.
Third: I am now almost convinced that the Premier will hold off one more week, so the predictions can still trickle out over the next couple of days.
Fourth: Possible thunderstorm coming tonight. Love storms.
Fifth: There is no fifth.
Sixth: After meeting her last night, I'm now in the Trudy Turner fan club.
Second: My wireless network wasn't working when I got home last night, hence no posting. Hopefully I can get it working tonight.
Third: I am now almost convinced that the Premier will hold off one more week, so the predictions can still trickle out over the next couple of days.
Fourth: Possible thunderstorm coming tonight. Love storms.
Fifth: There is no fifth.
Sixth: After meeting her last night, I'm now in the Trudy Turner fan club.
Wednesday, April 18
Update
Bad timing.
1st: I used my lunch to write up my final five rural predictions, but for whatever reason, the window timed out and shut down when all I had left was the little details like colour text and formatting. I was less than pleased.
2nd: Work had me in the office late and busy all night as well. We'll try again with the finishing of the rural picks and we'll see what time I get home from the Seine River nomination tonight. If early enough and with enough motivation, I'll plow thru the Winnipeg ridings. There's only a dozen worth watching.
* * * * * * * * * *
PS: Lots of Tories still gave Denis Rocan the benefit of the doubt at times, despite his obvious flaws. Much more difficult for anyone who is a good Tory to do so today. Which is too bad. He's allowed his final few weeks to seriously disparage his last twenty years.
He is trying to make it sound like he's doing this for "the people", but most of my readers already know that this is not about "the people" or "the NDP" or even "the Tories".
This is about Denis Rocan. As it always was.
Not as many people as Denis believes there are will miss him.
1st: I used my lunch to write up my final five rural predictions, but for whatever reason, the window timed out and shut down when all I had left was the little details like colour text and formatting. I was less than pleased.
2nd: Work had me in the office late and busy all night as well. We'll try again with the finishing of the rural picks and we'll see what time I get home from the Seine River nomination tonight. If early enough and with enough motivation, I'll plow thru the Winnipeg ridings. There's only a dozen worth watching.
* * * * * * * * * *
PS: Lots of Tories still gave Denis Rocan the benefit of the doubt at times, despite his obvious flaws. Much more difficult for anyone who is a good Tory to do so today. Which is too bad. He's allowed his final few weeks to seriously disparage his last twenty years.
He is trying to make it sound like he's doing this for "the people", but most of my readers already know that this is not about "the people" or "the NDP" or even "the Tories".
This is about Denis Rocan. As it always was.
Not as many people as Denis believes there are will miss him.
Tuesday, April 17
Manitoba Election Predictions - Part II - "Cows, Cars & Conservatives"
It's late as I write this. I'm tired, cranky, far too foggy brained to be accurate. Still, these are the calls pre-election. Using the successful formula of Comments Closed, let's look at the seats of Not-Winnipeg:
The Odds Are So One-Sided, There's No Money To Be Made:
NDP (6)
Flin Flon - Very little to say about this one. Santa Claus, or Gerard Jennison as his mother used to call him, will easily retain the seat he has held for a dozen years.
Rupertsland - Sounds like the Tories found themselves a pony in David Harper of the Island Lakes area, and while I would love to see him prevail, I think I would be insane to bet against Culture & Heritage Minister Eric Robinson, who appears to be an all-around nice guy, if a little under-challenged in his ministry.
Selkirk - Another election. Another NDP win. And I don't buy that it is simply due to the union influence - though you cannot ignore it's factor. It is just that Selkirk feels like a riding that the Tories need a solid ten-year plan to pick up, and considering we're in Year Negative Two, the clock still has some ticking left in it. Greg Dewar gets to spend another four meaningless years in the backbench, which from my perspective, is about where he belongs.
Swan River - I actually thought that Rosanne Wowchuk was going to retire - which would have made it more interesting because it should be as close as it is in years - but still isn't frisky enough to seriously consider switching. Just like 1999, look for Rosie over Maxine Plesiuk, who used to blog over at the now defunct Max & Bob blog.
The Pas - I really don't respect Oscar Lathlin, and I promise you, race has absolutely nothing to do with it. I just don't like what he brings to the table and if it wasn't for his race, you can promise yourself that he wouldn't be in cabinet. Chief Ron Evans came really close to beating him in 1999, however The Pas isn't switching this year.
Thompson - Or, as Comments Closed calls it:
Liberal (0)
If anyone has a real idea or plan for bringing the Liberals back to being a real contender, I'm all ears. Frankly at this point, it's just a matter of wagering on when the Liberal elders in the province decide that it's just not worth the funding anymore. Once Jon Gerrard steps down - and he has to at some point - who steps into his place? And who do they bring along with them?
Still a decade at minimum before the Liberals compete outside the city.
Tories (15)
Arthur-Virden - I like Larry Maguire. Glad he's sticking around for more. Nothing really to analyze about the riding so I'll share a fun little piece of history that many today won't recall. Larry Maguire once faced off against Filmon cabinet minister Jim McCrae for the right to represent the Tories in Brandon-Souris, and Larry pulled off the upset and took the nomination. Jim went on to stints in Justice and Health and Larry went on to spectacular defeat along with almost everyone else on his team, because being a Tory in 1993 blew chunks. Just goes to show you how life's funny that way.
Carman - Man for some interesting nominations, but don't fool yourself. It's not going to be even close. Blaine Pederson in a walk.
Emerson - I hear that another challenge may be needed in 2011, but for today, we'll give benefit of the doubt tothe cowboy...er, Mr. Cliff Graydon. He's done his heaviest lifting already election-wise, however it'll be nice to see how he handles himself over the next few years.
La Verendrye - I'm on the record....As a fellow, I really like Minister Ron Lemieux. He was always the friendliest NDP cabinet minister to me and I think he'd be a great guy to sit around with beers, gossip and storytelling. That being said, he struggled in cabinet until he fell into his current role and even then it seems he (and the Premier) think that Minister of Transportation is about cutting cheques for highways more than long term meaningful planning about Manitoba's infrastructure and transportation infrastructure.
After eight years, one would think that the self-proclaimed "party of Manitoba's north" would have come up with something in regards to transportation needs of Northern Manitoba. Particularly on the East Side. And while their recent "investment" is showy, it's not really that cutting edge or strategic. It's about creating big numbers to put in campaign brochures.
And let us not forget that under this Minister, an overpass on Manitoba's busiest highway needed to be shut down permanently just days after a collapse in Quebec. Let's imagine that the Quebec accident hadn't occurred...Do any of you readers believe for even one second that the Trans Canada Highway overpass at Portage would be closed? How many thousands of vehicles would still be rolling over it today? The clock would have been tick, tick, ticking away...Getting vehicle after vehicle closer to a potential disaster of our own.
Instead, someone in Quebec was very unlucky. And we were lucky enough to catch something so dangerous, that vehicle traffic was stopped the very day they found it.
So yeah, one could argue that as Transportation Minister, Lemieux has left a little to be desired.
Back to the riding, it is one we should not have lost in the first place and certainly one that only could have been held in one of those "Bad Tory/Good NDP years", but in a fair fight, against another skilled and experience politico - Reeve Bob Stefaniuk - nice guy Lemieux is going down and the Tories have their first pick up.
Lac Du Bonnet - Gerald Hawranik's solid and steady, though as dry as a summer dust storm in the House. I think he'll make a strong cabinet minister one day and he'll continue to hold this seat. He was written off in 2003 - by his own party - and still prevailed on hard work. He won't come close to that again.
Lakeside - If a young political science master applicant wants a wicked thesis idea..."How The NDP Could Win Lakeside" would have to be good for at least a couple hundred pages of theory and hypotheses.
Minnedosa - "Landslide" holds again. It's a riding back on the upswing.
Morris - Mavis Taillieu has always been nice to me and I think she is good people. That being said, two things have bothered me about her politics over the last four years.
1) As the public face of the coup of Stuart Murray, she had a fundamental obligation to recruit a candidate for the leadership. You don't simply knife your leader on a whim. If you are going to plan the attack, finish the job and provide people with an option.
2) From what I understand, there was a point during this term where the Morris membership levels dropped below an acceptable level for a non-held south Winnipeg riding, least of all a solid-blue rural stronghold. That is unacceptable.
Still, she'll hold the riding.
Pembina - Gotta love Peter George. Not basing this on anything specific, but I get the sense he'll be grooming someone over the next four years.
Portage La Prairie - Yes, it's a gimme. If someone gives you David's Vote -1,000 votes, I demand that you take those odds. The NDP gave up on this riding about a year and change ago and the above mentioned debacle with the overpass should seal it up. David Faurschou wins the prize by holding off Ryan Matthews and any BS about "good Tories" sitting at home is ridiculous.
Russell - My home town riding. Len Derkach was actually one of my more pleasant surprises during my tour of duty. He was House Leader at the time and you could tell he was having fun with it. Don't know how he's doing in a traditional critic's role, however I think he feels he has one more run in him and that he'll also be spending four years recruiting and grooming. (And before anyone says anything in the comments, no, it won't be me. If I commit to run next time, it'll be in a city riding.)
Springfield - Ron will keep his head down and deliver his vote. And bide his time.
Ste. Rose - The NDP probably have it targeted, however Stu Brise holds 'er. I might get a taker on a wager here if I can find a sucker.
Steinbach - My buddy Kelvin keeps working his riding like he has to and hammering away on the justice file. I imagine he'll be spending a goodly amount of time outside the riding, as he's one of our best spinners in caucus and justice is sure to be a major platform plank. The people of Steinbach are in very good hands.
Turtle Mountain - Cliff Cullen is a volunteer firefighter and they're always good people. I met Cliff before he was an MLA. It was a great way to meet a guy. In the bar. A few years ago, my curling team decided to play in a rural bonspeil. We chose Kilarney. While curling in Kilarney (or more accurately, "while drinking in the beer gardens"), we struck up a conversation with our opponents and they told us about a poker tournament the Carberry volunteer firefighters were putting on the next month. This was before poker tourneys started popping up all over the place, so a tournament was tantalizing and since the card game was going to be the Easter long weekend and we'd be driving out to our families' places in Westman anyhow, the curling team came out for it. I swear...when we walked into the room, everyone knew that we were the only people that everyone didn't know. It was somewhat great. Only somewhat great, because I crapped out, though my buddy Mike made the B-side Final Table. Later on at the bar, everyone was having a good time and Mike introduced me to the guy sitting next to me. Turns out the guy was a firefighter who had been a dealer at Mike's table and while making conversation, Mike discovered that the dealer had happened to recently win the by-election nomination for the Tories. So I turned and shook hands with Cliff Cullen for the first time.
True Story.
Anyways, it's late and I've still got five ridings to review, but they are the question marks. They'll have to wait for some point during the day. Likely lunch. I'm going to sleep.
The Odds Are So One-Sided, There's No Money To Be Made:
NDP (6)
Flin Flon - Very little to say about this one. Santa Claus, or Gerard Jennison as his mother used to call him, will easily retain the seat he has held for a dozen years.
Rupertsland - Sounds like the Tories found themselves a pony in David Harper of the Island Lakes area, and while I would love to see him prevail, I think I would be insane to bet against Culture & Heritage Minister Eric Robinson, who appears to be an all-around nice guy, if a little under-challenged in his ministry.
Selkirk - Another election. Another NDP win. And I don't buy that it is simply due to the union influence - though you cannot ignore it's factor. It is just that Selkirk feels like a riding that the Tories need a solid ten-year plan to pick up, and considering we're in Year Negative Two, the clock still has some ticking left in it. Greg Dewar gets to spend another four meaningless years in the backbench, which from my perspective, is about where he belongs.
Swan River - I actually thought that Rosanne Wowchuk was going to retire - which would have made it more interesting because it should be as close as it is in years - but still isn't frisky enough to seriously consider switching. Just like 1999, look for Rosie over Maxine Plesiuk, who used to blog over at the now defunct Max & Bob blog.
The Pas - I really don't respect Oscar Lathlin, and I promise you, race has absolutely nothing to do with it. I just don't like what he brings to the table and if it wasn't for his race, you can promise yourself that he wouldn't be in cabinet. Chief Ron Evans came really close to beating him in 1999, however The Pas isn't switching this year.
Thompson - Or, as Comments Closed calls it:
"Steven Ashton thinks he'll be premier one day. Seriously, he does. I don't think it'll happen. What will happen is that he'll win again as the MLA for Thompson."
Liberal (0)
If anyone has a real idea or plan for bringing the Liberals back to being a real contender, I'm all ears. Frankly at this point, it's just a matter of wagering on when the Liberal elders in the province decide that it's just not worth the funding anymore. Once Jon Gerrard steps down - and he has to at some point - who steps into his place? And who do they bring along with them?
Still a decade at minimum before the Liberals compete outside the city.
Tories (15)
Arthur-Virden - I like Larry Maguire. Glad he's sticking around for more. Nothing really to analyze about the riding so I'll share a fun little piece of history that many today won't recall. Larry Maguire once faced off against Filmon cabinet minister Jim McCrae for the right to represent the Tories in Brandon-Souris, and Larry pulled off the upset and took the nomination. Jim went on to stints in Justice and Health and Larry went on to spectacular defeat along with almost everyone else on his team, because being a Tory in 1993 blew chunks. Just goes to show you how life's funny that way.
Carman - Man for some interesting nominations, but don't fool yourself. It's not going to be even close. Blaine Pederson in a walk.
Emerson - I hear that another challenge may be needed in 2011, but for today, we'll give benefit of the doubt to
La Verendrye - I'm on the record....As a fellow, I really like Minister Ron Lemieux. He was always the friendliest NDP cabinet minister to me and I think he'd be a great guy to sit around with beers, gossip and storytelling. That being said, he struggled in cabinet until he fell into his current role and even then it seems he (and the Premier) think that Minister of Transportation is about cutting cheques for highways more than long term meaningful planning about Manitoba's infrastructure and transportation infrastructure.
After eight years, one would think that the self-proclaimed "party of Manitoba's north" would have come up with something in regards to transportation needs of Northern Manitoba. Particularly on the East Side. And while their recent "investment" is showy, it's not really that cutting edge or strategic. It's about creating big numbers to put in campaign brochures.
And let us not forget that under this Minister, an overpass on Manitoba's busiest highway needed to be shut down permanently just days after a collapse in Quebec. Let's imagine that the Quebec accident hadn't occurred...Do any of you readers believe for even one second that the Trans Canada Highway overpass at Portage would be closed? How many thousands of vehicles would still be rolling over it today? The clock would have been tick, tick, ticking away...Getting vehicle after vehicle closer to a potential disaster of our own.
Instead, someone in Quebec was very unlucky. And we were lucky enough to catch something so dangerous, that vehicle traffic was stopped the very day they found it.
So yeah, one could argue that as Transportation Minister, Lemieux has left a little to be desired.
Back to the riding, it is one we should not have lost in the first place and certainly one that only could have been held in one of those "Bad Tory/Good NDP years", but in a fair fight, against another skilled and experience politico - Reeve Bob Stefaniuk - nice guy Lemieux is going down and the Tories have their first pick up.
Lac Du Bonnet - Gerald Hawranik's solid and steady, though as dry as a summer dust storm in the House. I think he'll make a strong cabinet minister one day and he'll continue to hold this seat. He was written off in 2003 - by his own party - and still prevailed on hard work. He won't come close to that again.
Lakeside - If a young political science master applicant wants a wicked thesis idea..."How The NDP Could Win Lakeside" would have to be good for at least a couple hundred pages of theory and hypotheses.
Minnedosa - "Landslide" holds again. It's a riding back on the upswing.
Morris - Mavis Taillieu has always been nice to me and I think she is good people. That being said, two things have bothered me about her politics over the last four years.
1) As the public face of the coup of Stuart Murray, she had a fundamental obligation to recruit a candidate for the leadership. You don't simply knife your leader on a whim. If you are going to plan the attack, finish the job and provide people with an option.
2) From what I understand, there was a point during this term where the Morris membership levels dropped below an acceptable level for a non-held south Winnipeg riding, least of all a solid-blue rural stronghold. That is unacceptable.
Still, she'll hold the riding.
Pembina - Gotta love Peter George. Not basing this on anything specific, but I get the sense he'll be grooming someone over the next four years.
Portage La Prairie - Yes, it's a gimme. If someone gives you David's Vote -1,000 votes, I demand that you take those odds. The NDP gave up on this riding about a year and change ago and the above mentioned debacle with the overpass should seal it up. David Faurschou wins the prize by holding off Ryan Matthews and any BS about "good Tories" sitting at home is ridiculous.
Russell - My home town riding. Len Derkach was actually one of my more pleasant surprises during my tour of duty. He was House Leader at the time and you could tell he was having fun with it. Don't know how he's doing in a traditional critic's role, however I think he feels he has one more run in him and that he'll also be spending four years recruiting and grooming. (And before anyone says anything in the comments, no, it won't be me. If I commit to run next time, it'll be in a city riding.)
Springfield - Ron will keep his head down and deliver his vote. And bide his time.
Ste. Rose - The NDP probably have it targeted, however Stu Brise holds 'er. I might get a taker on a wager here if I can find a sucker.
Steinbach - My buddy Kelvin keeps working his riding like he has to and hammering away on the justice file. I imagine he'll be spending a goodly amount of time outside the riding, as he's one of our best spinners in caucus and justice is sure to be a major platform plank. The people of Steinbach are in very good hands.
Turtle Mountain - Cliff Cullen is a volunteer firefighter and they're always good people. I met Cliff before he was an MLA. It was a great way to meet a guy. In the bar. A few years ago, my curling team decided to play in a rural bonspeil. We chose Kilarney. While curling in Kilarney (or more accurately, "while drinking in the beer gardens"), we struck up a conversation with our opponents and they told us about a poker tournament the Carberry volunteer firefighters were putting on the next month. This was before poker tourneys started popping up all over the place, so a tournament was tantalizing and since the card game was going to be the Easter long weekend and we'd be driving out to our families' places in Westman anyhow, the curling team came out for it. I swear...when we walked into the room, everyone knew that we were the only people that everyone didn't know. It was somewhat great. Only somewhat great, because I crapped out, though my buddy Mike made the B-side Final Table. Later on at the bar, everyone was having a good time and Mike introduced me to the guy sitting next to me. Turns out the guy was a firefighter who had been a dealer at Mike's table and while making conversation, Mike discovered that the dealer had happened to recently win the by-election nomination for the Tories. So I turned and shook hands with Cliff Cullen for the first time.
True Story.
Anyways, it's late and I've still got five ridings to review, but they are the question marks. They'll have to wait for some point during the day. Likely lunch. I'm going to sleep.
Monday, April 16
The Next Installment In Our Continuing Series, "What The Hell Does That Have To Do With Insurance?"
Why does the monopoly handling my insurance rates - one that has been ordered to send us surplus money they billed us, but would rather keep in their reserves* - spending corporate money on truck driver training?
This isn't spending money to make unsafe, high-risk drivers better. If it was, well, that one could almost justify.
However, we're talking about a program specifically designed to target the shortage of drivers. That isn't an insurance company's problem. Labour shortages are a government problem.
Smells to me like this is a program that should be coming out of the Labour Department's budget. Not the auto insurance company.
And *we're* the party that's a danger to our crown corps, right?
* - Those $100 cheques should be rolling out soon right? Should take long than another week or two. Fortuitous timing, ne c'est pas?
This isn't spending money to make unsafe, high-risk drivers better. If it was, well, that one could almost justify.
However, we're talking about a program specifically designed to target the shortage of drivers. That isn't an insurance company's problem. Labour shortages are a government problem.
Smells to me like this is a program that should be coming out of the Labour Department's budget. Not the auto insurance company.
And *we're* the party that's a danger to our crown corps, right?
* - Those $100 cheques should be rolling out soon right? Should take long than another week or two. Fortuitous timing, ne c'est pas?
The Shoe Drops...
Manitoba Election Predictions - Part I - "The Forces At Work"
(Hack Note - I was getting pretty tired when I wrote this last night. It's raw and unfinished, but I wanted to get it up today to hopefully ignite some discussion. There are a few more trends and forces I that I think are important, such as voters making up their minds over the May Long Weekend, but these will do for now. Predicts start coming tomorrow.)
Since it is looking more and more like the election will be triggered on April 20th - this Friday - it now feels like the right time to really focus on the issues, players and trends affecting the race. The prediction posts will arrive tomorrow and Wednesday, with Thursday's discussing some of the policy-side issues I would like to see discussed.
But today, let's just look at how some of the factors determining those predictions to come:
1. The NDP will lose seats. The Tories will gain seats. This is absolute fact. It is only a matter of "How Many?"
2. The NDP are making a fundamental error in assuming that Hugh McFadyen will struggle on the campaign trail. They are clearly building their campaign around wanting the ballot question to be: "Is Hugh McFadyen ready for the job of Premier?"
It is a strategy that can keep a government in power (See: McGuinty, Dalton - 1999), however it also cedes control over the outcome of the election to your main opponent. You gamble correctly and he lives up to your low expectations, the re-election comes easy. He handles himself well, coming off as capable, sincere, likable and the most important thing itself - acceptable - than the "paint his as incompetent" strategy fails spectacularly, because you already made him the focus of the campaign and you have no real fall back Plan B since making your opponent the villain is usually the classic Plan B or C. (See: McGuinty, Dalton - 2003)
The very fact that the NDP have chosen it as their overall campaign strategy, means you should laugh in the face of anyone who still attempts to convince you that Premier Gary Doer is the most popular premier in the land. That bold statement began losing credibility in 2004 and even the NDP brain trust themselves are openly acknowledging that it is false.
After all, if you're the most popular leader in the country...You don't make the campaign a referendum on the other guy. Think Ralph Klein ever ran on "The Liberals....They blow." as his core message?
Over the weekend, Gary Doer made an analogy straight out of Labour's version of the "ultimate political ads" that Channel 4 had commissioned for the 2004 British election. 'Don't vote Tory,' the ads say, 'Because you'll have to wake to them the next morning.'
3. I believe that while Hugh won't knock 'em completely out of the ball park, that he will do well and actually ride some mid-election momentum when people have had about two-and-a-half weeks to get a look at him and several of the key planks will have been unveiled. It will be this time, Week Three to early Week Four, that we will first begin to hear rumblings that some seats not expected to switch will be in play leading up to a fun and interesting final fifteen days.
4. The Liberals will run a now-standard campaign for themselves provincially. Focus on their two seats, maybe three others in the city, and then hope and pray that both Inkster and River Heights stay red. I think they should.
5. The Greens will not even be a minor factor provincially.
6. Health Care will not be the number one issue moving votes - despite the desperate pleas of the nurses' union ads that are airing during the playoffs and are supposed to gear up substantially as the campaign takes place. In fact, I'll wager that health care gets pushed into the "next tier" of vote-deciding issues.
7. I am loathe to predict that the Tories won't lose at least one of their currently held seats, because even when a party is on an up-swing, there always appears to be at least one seat that goes against the trend. That being said, 2003 was an anomaly of an election. The Tories really did hit as close to bottom as is realistically to be expected. Sure, their real bottom might be 17 or 18 seats, but by that point we're talking about moving only a few hundred more votes to make that happen. Overall, not a drastically smaller percentage of the vote.
Now 2003 was a very bad year to be a Tory and a pretty darned good year to be NDP. By 2007, these roles may not have reversed, but they certainly have moved closer together. I cannot imagine that voters casting their 2003 votes for the Tories will suddenly decide to switch to the NDP. They hold their 20 and build upon it.
8. Polling trends suggest that there are rural seats that the PCs should be and will be putting into play. You know that at least four seats up north probably are still seeing a high concentration of NDP voters which means that the numbers in the south are even higher than presented for the Tories. Considering the NDP still hold seven seats in what I would consider "the south", it is not unthinkable to imagine that 50% Tory vote outside Winnipeg could lead to three-five seat shifts.
9. That leaves Winnipeg, where I am convinced that most voteres in the ridings in play, won't be making their decisions until late in the campaign. And those voters won't vote for the party that looks desperate. Whichever party that is.
Since it is looking more and more like the election will be triggered on April 20th - this Friday - it now feels like the right time to really focus on the issues, players and trends affecting the race. The prediction posts will arrive tomorrow and Wednesday, with Thursday's discussing some of the policy-side issues I would like to see discussed.
But today, let's just look at how some of the factors determining those predictions to come:
1. The NDP will lose seats. The Tories will gain seats. This is absolute fact. It is only a matter of "How Many?"
2. The NDP are making a fundamental error in assuming that Hugh McFadyen will struggle on the campaign trail. They are clearly building their campaign around wanting the ballot question to be: "Is Hugh McFadyen ready for the job of Premier?"
It is a strategy that can keep a government in power (See: McGuinty, Dalton - 1999), however it also cedes control over the outcome of the election to your main opponent. You gamble correctly and he lives up to your low expectations, the re-election comes easy. He handles himself well, coming off as capable, sincere, likable and the most important thing itself - acceptable - than the "paint his as incompetent" strategy fails spectacularly, because you already made him the focus of the campaign and you have no real fall back Plan B since making your opponent the villain is usually the classic Plan B or C. (See: McGuinty, Dalton - 2003)
The very fact that the NDP have chosen it as their overall campaign strategy, means you should laugh in the face of anyone who still attempts to convince you that Premier Gary Doer is the most popular premier in the land. That bold statement began losing credibility in 2004 and even the NDP brain trust themselves are openly acknowledging that it is false.
After all, if you're the most popular leader in the country...You don't make the campaign a referendum on the other guy. Think Ralph Klein ever ran on "The Liberals....They blow." as his core message?
Over the weekend, Gary Doer made an analogy straight out of Labour's version of the "ultimate political ads" that Channel 4 had commissioned for the 2004 British election. 'Don't vote Tory,' the ads say, 'Because you'll have to wake to them the next morning.'
3. I believe that while Hugh won't knock 'em completely out of the ball park, that he will do well and actually ride some mid-election momentum when people have had about two-and-a-half weeks to get a look at him and several of the key planks will have been unveiled. It will be this time, Week Three to early Week Four, that we will first begin to hear rumblings that some seats not expected to switch will be in play leading up to a fun and interesting final fifteen days.
4. The Liberals will run a now-standard campaign for themselves provincially. Focus on their two seats, maybe three others in the city, and then hope and pray that both Inkster and River Heights stay red. I think they should.
5. The Greens will not even be a minor factor provincially.
6. Health Care will not be the number one issue moving votes - despite the desperate pleas of the nurses' union ads that are airing during the playoffs and are supposed to gear up substantially as the campaign takes place. In fact, I'll wager that health care gets pushed into the "next tier" of vote-deciding issues.
7. I am loathe to predict that the Tories won't lose at least one of their currently held seats, because even when a party is on an up-swing, there always appears to be at least one seat that goes against the trend. That being said, 2003 was an anomaly of an election. The Tories really did hit as close to bottom as is realistically to be expected. Sure, their real bottom might be 17 or 18 seats, but by that point we're talking about moving only a few hundred more votes to make that happen. Overall, not a drastically smaller percentage of the vote.
Now 2003 was a very bad year to be a Tory and a pretty darned good year to be NDP. By 2007, these roles may not have reversed, but they certainly have moved closer together. I cannot imagine that voters casting their 2003 votes for the Tories will suddenly decide to switch to the NDP. They hold their 20 and build upon it.
8. Polling trends suggest that there are rural seats that the PCs should be and will be putting into play. You know that at least four seats up north probably are still seeing a high concentration of NDP voters which means that the numbers in the south are even higher than presented for the Tories. Considering the NDP still hold seven seats in what I would consider "the south", it is not unthinkable to imagine that 50% Tory vote outside Winnipeg could lead to three-five seat shifts.
9. That leaves Winnipeg, where I am convinced that most voteres in the ridings in play, won't be making their decisions until late in the campaign. And those voters won't vote for the party that looks desperate. Whichever party that is.
Saturday, April 14
Petty, Petty, Petty II
In response to my criticism of yesterday's Tory criticism of the LG's new wheels, one anonymous writer* wrote this:
So what? Do you honestly believe for one minute that anyone's vote is going to move because of that issue? That they were just sitting around content on health, justice, taxes, education, etc., but hearing MLA Jack Reimer take a poke at the unelected Lieutenant Governor is the "A-ha!" moment where they decide to cast their ballot Tory?
Come off of it!
But here is something I do know...That at least one or ten people heard yesterday's reports and muttered, "Typical politician bullshit. What more do you expect?" This story only played into and re-enforced voter cynicism and apathy.
More often than naught, these "So-And-So is abusing their perks" stories are crap. Dumb "Gotcha!"-style one-hits that do zero for the public discourse and debate. Less than zero actually, because they often bring everybody down and not just the intended target.
They also hurt because playing "Gotcha!" on the small frivolous stuff often means that real abuses of the system go unpunished, because voters and media simply shrug and say, "Typical politician bullshit. What more do you expect?"
Maybe Mia is correct, and this episode had more to do with getting Jack Reimer in the news in order to fend off the name-candidate NDP challenger Erin Shelby. I can't believe that the NDP has polling suggesting that they should be putting many resources into the riding**, but maybe they do. In that case, Jack has no one to blame but Jack himself. When you hold a riding for a dozen years, there's no excuse to be caught napping with lower-than-needed support.
And you can't tell me that Southdale voters give two fits about John Harvard's wheels.
* - You know something guys? I like the comments and all, but the absolute least you can do to help your credibility would be to sign a handle like Uncle Joe does. It puts a little more weight to your point when I can see your consistency over multiple posts.
* - If the Tories held the riding in 2003, what vote is going to move right-to-left in 2007? I think Shelby's not expected to win, but that the party gave her a fall-back deal of a guaranteed position with the communications staff and a better riding next time.
Might be a goofy issue - but it got the attention of the media, didn't it?
So what? Do you honestly believe for one minute that anyone's vote is going to move because of that issue? That they were just sitting around content on health, justice, taxes, education, etc., but hearing MLA Jack Reimer take a poke at the unelected Lieutenant Governor is the "A-ha!" moment where they decide to cast their ballot Tory?
Come off of it!
But here is something I do know...That at least one or ten people heard yesterday's reports and muttered, "Typical politician bullshit. What more do you expect?" This story only played into and re-enforced voter cynicism and apathy.
More often than naught, these "So-And-So is abusing their perks" stories are crap. Dumb "Gotcha!"-style one-hits that do zero for the public discourse and debate. Less than zero actually, because they often bring everybody down and not just the intended target.
They also hurt because playing "Gotcha!" on the small frivolous stuff often means that real abuses of the system go unpunished, because voters and media simply shrug and say, "Typical politician bullshit. What more do you expect?"
Maybe Mia is correct, and this episode had more to do with getting Jack Reimer in the news in order to fend off the name-candidate NDP challenger Erin Shelby. I can't believe that the NDP has polling suggesting that they should be putting many resources into the riding**, but maybe they do. In that case, Jack has no one to blame but Jack himself. When you hold a riding for a dozen years, there's no excuse to be caught napping with lower-than-needed support.
And you can't tell me that Southdale voters give two fits about John Harvard's wheels.
* - You know something guys? I like the comments and all, but the absolute least you can do to help your credibility would be to sign a handle like Uncle Joe does. It puts a little more weight to your point when I can see your consistency over multiple posts.
* - If the Tories held the riding in 2003, what vote is going to move right-to-left in 2007? I think Shelby's not expected to win, but that the party gave her a fall-back deal of a guaranteed position with the communications staff and a better riding next time.
Not Sure Which Playoff Link Is Better
A Buffalo Sabres fan really badly wants playoff tickets. [Via Mirtle]
Lil' Jon the rapper has a blog for the NHL playoffs.....Yes. THAT Lil' Jon. Seriously. He claims he was an old Atlanta Flames fan back in the day before they ran for the Canadian backwoods. And maybe I'm just that hoser-ish about our game to believe him. I like Atlanta for one round, so it'll be neat to see if he catches "the blogging bug". So far, only one post. The NHL must have paid for at least a couple, right?
Still, that's a really good Buffalo Sabres link.
Lil' Jon the rapper has a blog for the NHL playoffs.....Yes. THAT Lil' Jon. Seriously. He claims he was an old Atlanta Flames fan back in the day before they ran for the Canadian backwoods. And maybe I'm just that hoser-ish about our game to believe him. I like Atlanta for one round, so it'll be neat to see if he catches "the blogging bug". So far, only one post. The NHL must have paid for at least a couple, right?
Still, that's a really good Buffalo Sabres link.
Friday, April 13
Petty, Petty, Petty
One area of public policy that I'm usually pretty consistent on is that of remediation remuneration [Thanks reader. - hack] for our elected and non-elected government officials. I don't know how much the LG in Manitoba earns a year, but it's a worthy position and so long as we have it, the office-holder deserves certain perks and benefits. A nice car is one of them.
Which is why I hate hate hate such petty and utterly meaningless attacks like these from other underpaid pols. All it does is fuel cynicism within the public and honestly, does anyone believe that even a single voter is going to vote Conservative because we called out the LG on a $70,000 towncar?
A Manitoba MLA earns under $70K a year. Far far far too little for the position and importance to the province. Good luck convincing anyone outside of politics that after all these stupid perks/pensions/pay raise attacks over the years.
Which is why I hate hate hate such petty and utterly meaningless attacks like these from other underpaid pols. All it does is fuel cynicism within the public and honestly, does anyone believe that even a single voter is going to vote Conservative because we called out the LG on a $70,000 towncar?
Manitoba's Opposition is criticizing Lieutenant Governor John Harvard about a new vehicle being driven by the government head.
Tory MLA Jack Reimer claims Harvard's office has purchased a new 70-thousand dollar Lincoln Town Car to replace a 1999 Cadillac with only 76 thousand kilometres.
Reimer feels the vehicle is too expensive, unnecessary, and not environmentally friendly.[Link]
A Manitoba MLA earns under $70K a year. Far far far too little for the position and importance to the province. Good luck convincing anyone outside of politics that after all these stupid perks/pensions/pay raise attacks over the years.
Thursday, April 12
Two Kill Shots
Indeed, if there was any party that profited from her brief fling with the Liberals, it was the Conservatives, who were thereby disposed of a disruptive influence. That she demolished what was left of Peter MacKay’s reputation in the process must be counted as a bonus.
In her political obit, Coyne smacks Belinda as only AC can*, but it's the knee to Peter MacKay's junk that elicits gaffaws.
* - Okay, Wells' is pretty funny today as well.
Memo To The Manitoba Business Community:
Re: Election's Coming And The Other Side's Gearin' Up
Dear folks, (you know who you are)
I've been watching hockey for the last seven and a half hours. Many many times I discovered that it was be absolutely crushing to "return to the 90's" in regards to health care.
"What? The Feds are cutting hundreds of millions in transfers again? When did that happen?"
But I digress. The point of this memo is to bring attention to who was paying for said advertising spot during Games One of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Manitoba Nurses Union.
You know what this means, right? This election matters and you need to engage. Spend some money and help out the folks who generally govern with a business and economy-building mind - February stat holidays notwithstanding.
Of course, if you don't help out the Tories, maybe you shouldn't be so surprised when they play the populism card to reach out.
Just a thought.
The Hack
While We Wait For Triple OT In Vancouver
We make our way back to the dressing room after the second overtime, and by now everyone is caveman hungry. So, we order some arena pizzas. The pizza comes and I'm sitting there with my shirt off, my gut hanging out and stuffing pizza in my pie hole. I'm there telling the boys, "Don't worry boys, I'm like a bear hibernating in the winter. I got all this fat stored up to use for 50 overtimes! I'm worried about you poor bastards with 3-percent body fat. Just get my fat back, fellas!" One thing you can say about the 1999-2000 Flyers, we were always loose. I made sure of it.
- from former Flyer Keith Jones' book discussing an epic Philly/Pittsburgh OT of 2000 - the third-longest in NHL history
Head over to John Buccigross' weekly column on ESPN.com for more on a player's perspective on lenghty overtimes. Very funny and very enlightening when it comes to just how tough they are.
As a fan, you have to love OT like this. Hell, CBC just "analyzed" a camera shot of the Dallar Stars' bench. The fans behind the glass had a beer-a-myd of empty plastic beer glasses. Maclean, Hrudy and guest Craig Simpson actually numbered those visible. (11)
* * * * * * * * *
6th Intermission Update: They have a better shot of the beer-a-myd. Twenty-three to the fans. Kelly Hrudey as added a smaller one of his own in the studio.
Seriously.
* * * * * * * * *
Hockey Morning In Newfoundland Update: Game over. One Sedin (Henry) from the other Sedin (Daniel). Harry Neale was outright begging for the game to end. I think Jim Hughston kinda liked the idea of going longer and higher up the all-time rankings. (I believe it finished sixth in the end.) What an exhausting time for the players. Hell, what an exhausting time for me!
Day one is in the books. All eight-and-a-half hours of it. Only two more months to go.
Wednesday, April 11
Kurt Vonnegut R.I.P.
Night One
My Senators looked really good tonight, though watch Pittsburgh not panic and fight 'em hard on Saturday afternoon.
The Nashville/San Jose game is wicked awesome. Five minutes left in the first OT period. Feels like it'll go the distance and go to Period Five.
In the meantime, stumbled across this link on the Versus website:
Gotta love #4 and Paul Kariya. It's not the greatest, but she sure was pretty.
The Nashville/San Jose game is wicked awesome. Five minutes left in the first OT period. Feels like it'll go the distance and go to Period Five.
In the meantime, stumbled across this link on the Versus website:
The Best Playoff Moments Of All Time. You Decide.
Gotta love #4 and Paul Kariya. It's not the greatest, but she sure was pretty.
Never Has So Little Shone So Brightly, So Quickly, Burning Out Just As Fast
Belinda's leaving the scene.
What a story, eh? For someone whose name was unknown just three years and three months ago, she went straight to the top of the charts, flexed a few dollars disguised as "charisma", made arguably the biggest stab-your-leader-in-the-back move in Canadian history, then faded rapidly from the scene when she realized you cannot buy a delegated leadership convention. (Another plus for delegates vs. 1M1V in my opinion.)
She'll be back. Of that, I unfortunately have no doubt. Probably in about eight to ten years, sometimes around the next government transition and she smells power again. How seriously she takes her french lessons in the meantime should determine if she still craves the Prime Minister title.
Some opportunistic writers will try to paint her departure as a blow against women in politics. That all the jokes and snide comments about Stronach's political and personal life cut to the bone and were the catalyst of today's decision. Ignore those writers and make mental notes to disregard their tripe in the future. To ignore Belinda Stronach's audacious ambition and outright refusal to pay any non-monetary dues, is to stand in a dark room and fault the light bulb for not being bright enough instead of placing the blame where it actually lies, the big grey elephant sharing the cramped quarters with you and blocking the light.
Stronach is one of the more interesting sub-plots of the Conservative merger history, right from her "did she or didn't she" role in the early negotiations up to the day of her floor-crossing, which is now recognized as a real "bunker down" moment for the new party doing more to bring its polar ends together than pushing them apart.
Myself...I'll always remember her for the bitchin' Montreal hospitality suite with its blue-glowing martinis, Tom Cochrane on stage and a general atmosphere of absolute fun.
Thanks for the good time that night Belinda. It's the least I can say about your contribution to Canadian politics.
Course, I'm not sure what else you brought to the table. Wondered that at the time. STill do today.
What a story, eh? For someone whose name was unknown just three years and three months ago, she went straight to the top of the charts, flexed a few dollars disguised as "charisma", made arguably the biggest stab-your-leader-in-the-back move in Canadian history, then faded rapidly from the scene when she realized you cannot buy a delegated leadership convention. (Another plus for delegates vs. 1M1V in my opinion.)
She'll be back. Of that, I unfortunately have no doubt. Probably in about eight to ten years, sometimes around the next government transition and she smells power again. How seriously she takes her french lessons in the meantime should determine if she still craves the Prime Minister title.
Some opportunistic writers will try to paint her departure as a blow against women in politics. That all the jokes and snide comments about Stronach's political and personal life cut to the bone and were the catalyst of today's decision. Ignore those writers and make mental notes to disregard their tripe in the future. To ignore Belinda Stronach's audacious ambition and outright refusal to pay any non-monetary dues, is to stand in a dark room and fault the light bulb for not being bright enough instead of placing the blame where it actually lies, the big grey elephant sharing the cramped quarters with you and blocking the light.
Stronach is one of the more interesting sub-plots of the Conservative merger history, right from her "did she or didn't she" role in the early negotiations up to the day of her floor-crossing, which is now recognized as a real "bunker down" moment for the new party doing more to bring its polar ends together than pushing them apart.
Myself...I'll always remember her for the bitchin' Montreal hospitality suite with its blue-glowing martinis, Tom Cochrane on stage and a general atmosphere of absolute fun.
Thanks for the good time that night Belinda. It's the least I can say about your contribution to Canadian politics.
Course, I'm not sure what else you brought to the table. Wondered that at the time. STill do today.
I'll Admit, I Got Suckered...
At the end of last year, there was a great deal of talk about a Canadian economic slow down this year. So much so that during his 2006 Round-Up, Warren Kinsella even made the economy his "Story of 2007 To Watch" ahead of a potential push for a majority, Afghanistan and any other potential TSN turning point in the country.
And I believed he was probably correct in pointing that out.
Oops.
Now imagine just how hot the Canadian economy could be if we actually made some aggressive moves on the economic side of the budgetting process.
And I believed he was probably correct in pointing that out.
Oops.
In Stephen Harper's case, the starting point is the January 2006 election. In the five quarters since then, the Canadian economy has created nearly half a million new jobs, 158,000 in the first quarter of 2007 alone, the strongest employment growth in five years.
Go ahead, make Harper's day.
In January of last year, there were 16,321,000 Canadians working in this country. In March 2007, there were 16,798,400 million employed Canadians. About 477,000 more Canadians are working today than when the Conservative government took office.
In the boom years of the mid-1980s, it took a full mandate for the economy to create anything close to one million new jobs - a bullet with boasting rights. At the current rate of employment growth, the economy could create a million new jobs in only two years. [emphasis added]
Now imagine just how hot the Canadian economy could be if we actually made some aggressive moves on the economic side of the budgetting process.
I'll Be Stealing His Format For My Own Predictions And Today I Offer Kudos
Comments Closed gets a handful dead wrong, but he's on the right track with his riding-by-riding predictions for the upcoming Manitoba Election.
That track of course is this: It's much closer than the general thinking goes.
MUCH closer.
Check out his Rural Ridings Predictions here and his Winnipeg Riding Predictions here. (For some strang reason, Blogger doesn't want me hyperlinking tonight. So just head over to CC's link on the side and check out his lenghty prognostications. Also, if there are spelling mistakes....Blame the lack of spell check.)
I was all about to make a definite prediction myself today....I really thought that the call was coming this week. Then my good ole former colleague Felicia - no political slouch herself - reminded me that it was unlikely due to the Selkirk flooding.
Smart lady. She's right.
Circumstances conspire against our fearless Premier once again. He needs to hold off at least another week. Maybe two. Right in time for a little thing called the "spring planting season" and while this rural lad doesn't think that affects as great amount of voters as the consensus usually assumes, it's just not nice to sending Manitoba voters to the polls when the farmers are on the fields.
Man, that February call must keep looking sweeter and sweeter in the rear-view mirror, eh Mr. Premier?
PS: I was told today that NDP-supporter Harvey Smith is passing word around to the lefties at City Hall that the Conrad Santos challange is about to go away. That the party doesn't want a messy battle this close to a call.
Say what you will about the challanges on the Tory sitting members....We timed those a heckuva lot better.
That track of course is this: It's much closer than the general thinking goes.
MUCH closer.
Check out his Rural Ridings Predictions here and his Winnipeg Riding Predictions here. (For some strang reason, Blogger doesn't want me hyperlinking tonight. So just head over to CC's link on the side and check out his lenghty prognostications. Also, if there are spelling mistakes....Blame the lack of spell check.)
I was all about to make a definite prediction myself today....I really thought that the call was coming this week. Then my good ole former colleague Felicia - no political slouch herself - reminded me that it was unlikely due to the Selkirk flooding.
Smart lady. She's right.
Circumstances conspire against our fearless Premier once again. He needs to hold off at least another week. Maybe two. Right in time for a little thing called the "spring planting season" and while this rural lad doesn't think that affects as great amount of voters as the consensus usually assumes, it's just not nice to sending Manitoba voters to the polls when the farmers are on the fields.
Man, that February call must keep looking sweeter and sweeter in the rear-view mirror, eh Mr. Premier?
PS: I was told today that NDP-supporter Harvey Smith is passing word around to the lefties at City Hall that the Conrad Santos challange is about to go away. That the party doesn't want a messy battle this close to a call.
Say what you will about the challanges on the Tory sitting members....We timed those a heckuva lot better.
Tuesday, April 10
Wonder What The People Think
There are now two proposals for a new stadium in the city. Both hinge on government money being involved. Now if only we could ask the people of Winnipeg whether they even want that money spent on a new stadium. Say on a ballot of some sorts....
But it's far too expensive to hold a referendum for just that alone.
Too bad we weren't going to have an election or something like that in the next few months. Would have been a fortunate chance to really gauge public support before the money was spent by either level of government.
Alas.
But it's far too expensive to hold a referendum for just that alone.
Too bad we weren't going to have an election or something like that in the next few months. Would have been a fortunate chance to really gauge public support before the money was spent by either level of government.
Alas.
Game On
"I don't understand the comments at all," continued [Senators' Coach Brian] Murray, who admitted he'd grown frustrated by the discussion [about the team's inability to perform in the playoffs]. "I don't know how many times Ottawa was supposed to win the Stanley Cup." [from TSN.ca]
Well speaking as a Sens' fan Coach, even once would be kinda nice.
"~Guess Who's Back....Back Again....Curtis is back....Tell A Friend....~"
Curtis Brown falls off the wagon and is blogging again.
If I Was CBC, I Would Be Extremely Livid As Well
Thursday, April 5
Juxaposition
Two Cases Today:
1) Manitoba Tory Leader Hugh McFadyen citing "movement" on Lake Winnipeg Clean-up as something he liked about yesterday's budget.....one page after an article about how Lake Winnipeg Clean-up got shafted in the budget.
2) Even better: In his fairly strong take on the budget, Dan Lett remarking how the 2003 Tories badly bungled their campaign promise to remove education property tax because their numbers didn't work*.......Right next to budget analysis by Canadian Federation of Independent Business rep Shannon Martin - the man whose 2003 employment as a Tory researcher made him the person most responsible for making the numbers dance.
* - I've completely given up trying to understand just who is correct in that one. I kinda think that the pledge was absolutely feasible, but that the Tories were likely caught playing it "too cute" because the party didn't have the guts to suggest that they would cut even a single dime of NDP spending.
1) Manitoba Tory Leader Hugh McFadyen citing "movement" on Lake Winnipeg Clean-up as something he liked about yesterday's budget.....one page after an article about how Lake Winnipeg Clean-up got shafted in the budget.
2) Even better: In his fairly strong take on the budget, Dan Lett remarking how the 2003 Tories badly bungled their campaign promise to remove education property tax because their numbers didn't work*.......Right next to budget analysis by Canadian Federation of Independent Business rep Shannon Martin - the man whose 2003 employment as a Tory researcher made him the person most responsible for making the numbers dance.
* - I've completely given up trying to understand just who is correct in that one. I kinda think that the pledge was absolutely feasible, but that the Tories were likely caught playing it "too cute" because the party didn't have the guts to suggest that they would cut even a single dime of NDP spending.
Wednesday, April 4
Budget Day
I'll try to mosey in every once in awhile today with budget thoughts. Luckily, I don't think Gary Doer will cut the PST like Tom Brodbeck suggested he should last week. (Saw a damned good letter to the editor in the Sun following up on that column.) *grin*
The Tories are blinking from their "let's hold up the budget" stance. Heard House Leader Kelvin Goertzen on the radio this morning backing away from the ledge. Probably for the best, but it would have been kinda neat had the stalling led to Doer's immediate walk to the Lt. Gov's house to get ole John to call the election.
Oh well, I'll just have to settle for a surprisingly good economic budget. I hear the NDP plan to completely cut the Tories' economic legs out from under them, bringing Manitobans an aggressive plan that cuts income tax in the range of 15-20%, further modest corporate and business taxes and the grand daddy of them all, a three-year phased payroll tax elimination. Hate to say it, but that's a solid sounding plan to me. Manitoba could maybe see our private sector expand a little quicker than the public sector under such a plan. Manitobans would actually notice their pay cheques are bigger, and like that won't bring an improved standard of living. It's going to be exactly the type of budget the NDP (or any government of any stripe frankly) should have been delivering starting around 2002ish. Imagine what five years of an aggressive tact like this could have reaped for the province?
Better late than never though, right?
Which is too bad there's no way in hell that the NDP would ever do it. The above wouldn't even pass the mustard of a bad April Fool's Day joke. No, spending will increase by a ratio of what? Seven to one? Eight to one dollar in tax cuts?
And we wonder why we keep falling behind...
* * * * * * * *
Kelvin, you know I'm a big fan and even be so bold to call you a friend. But after reading your comments regarding the NDP attack ads, I was left cringing. Spinning that the government is reprehensible (my word, not Kelvin's) for running attack ads is pretty weak when we couldn't wait to run "Gary Doer Knew About Crocus And DID NOTHING!!!!" ads last month. Trying to make the argument that the rules are not the same for government and the opposition doesn't work with today's cynical media and public (even though the rules are different, I'll concede.)
I'm sure you gave a number of quotes, and Mia just happen to use the "unbecoming" line, but in the future on the attack ads, I'd simply downplay them or keep returning to the message that you did get to use as well - "The government's out of gas if their best argument was staying is that they aren't Hugh McFadyen."
Just no more "so hard done by" spinning, 'kay?
* * * * * * * *
Just once, ONCE, I'd like to try one of those "scary" right-wing budgets that is supposed to ruin the fortunes of the country. Just once. *sigh*
* * * * * * * * * * * *
$9.3 Billion in Revenues. Compared to $6.6ish that was the 1999-2000 budget. Manitoba's population is up only slightly over that period of time. So I ask you, do you feel you are getting level of service approximately 50% greater than in the late 90's?
Further, during the election you're going to hear A LOT about the "dark days" of Filmon and cutting nurses and slashing services.....Well, I don't have the numbers handy, but compare the decisions that had to be made when Paul Martin was cutting federal transfers by the hundreds of millions to the decisions that the government today gets to make when transfers are increasing by hundreds of millions. Big difference, right? Only one party thinks you are stupid enough not to realize that.
Finally, the rubber band that is the tuition freeze gets pulled back more and more. If I was Grade Nine or Ten....I'd be starting to get out the padding, because when the rubber band is let go, she's gonna sting!
Tories, before we go into the election, please, I beg of you....Find areas you are willing to cut. You can't tell me that in a $9.2 Billion budget that you can't find $350 million or so that could be snipped. Let the electorate make a choice between a significant tax cut and those government programs. I swear up and down that if you choose the right areas to prune, that the people will respond. Don't be scared to change the focus of the debate from "Who Can Spend Better?" to "Why Should We Spend?"
(PS: A Tory on the planning committee recently remarked to me that he hadn't figured out Doer's ballot question yet. I told him what it is and I double dare anyone to suggest a better one:
"Is Hugh McFadyen ready to be Premier?"
There it is.
"Don't take the risk." "He's an amateur." "Don't go back."
It's all right there. Doer's running the Mike Harris 1999 campaign (though without the record). Instead of "Dalton McGuinty: He's just not up to the job", it's "Hugh McFadyen: Ditto". I guarantee that Doer is expecting Hugh to campaign stumble just enough that such a ballot question is favourable to the guy already in the drivers' seat.
This is an interesting gamble for "the country's most popular Premier", who you would think would run on himself (ala 2003) if he really believed the hooey anmore. No, he knows that there's a potential to upset if the "agent of change" argument gets strong enough, thus he has to go full-bore after said agent.
Could be a big risk though. I believe Hugh's actually going to do a pretty good job on the trail. Sure, there's going to be at least one major gaffe to befall him*, and possibly a few minor ones, but overall, he's sincere, charming and will come across as "fresh in comparison to a Premier who has been on the provincial scene since Expo '86 was rolling into Vancouver. If Gary Doer really wants to make the election about Mr. McFadyen - and I sincerely believe that he does - then that puts the election result almost 100% into the Tories court to determine.
Time to step up Hugh. )
* - It will happen. I guarentee it. In fact, once the writ is called, I should organize a pool for how many days into the election does it happen.
The Tories are blinking from their "let's hold up the budget" stance. Heard House Leader Kelvin Goertzen on the radio this morning backing away from the ledge. Probably for the best, but it would have been kinda neat had the stalling led to Doer's immediate walk to the Lt. Gov's house to get ole John to call the election.
Oh well, I'll just have to settle for a surprisingly good economic budget. I hear the NDP plan to completely cut the Tories' economic legs out from under them, bringing Manitobans an aggressive plan that cuts income tax in the range of 15-20%, further modest corporate and business taxes and the grand daddy of them all, a three-year phased payroll tax elimination. Hate to say it, but that's a solid sounding plan to me. Manitoba could maybe see our private sector expand a little quicker than the public sector under such a plan. Manitobans would actually notice their pay cheques are bigger, and like that won't bring an improved standard of living. It's going to be exactly the type of budget the NDP (or any government of any stripe frankly) should have been delivering starting around 2002ish. Imagine what five years of an aggressive tact like this could have reaped for the province?
Better late than never though, right?
Which is too bad there's no way in hell that the NDP would ever do it. The above wouldn't even pass the mustard of a bad April Fool's Day joke. No, spending will increase by a ratio of what? Seven to one? Eight to one dollar in tax cuts?
And we wonder why we keep falling behind...
* * * * * * * *
Kelvin, you know I'm a big fan and even be so bold to call you a friend. But after reading your comments regarding the NDP attack ads, I was left cringing. Spinning that the government is reprehensible (my word, not Kelvin's) for running attack ads is pretty weak when we couldn't wait to run "Gary Doer Knew About Crocus And DID NOTHING!!!!" ads last month. Trying to make the argument that the rules are not the same for government and the opposition doesn't work with today's cynical media and public (even though the rules are different, I'll concede.)
I'm sure you gave a number of quotes, and Mia just happen to use the "unbecoming" line, but in the future on the attack ads, I'd simply downplay them or keep returning to the message that you did get to use as well - "The government's out of gas if their best argument was staying is that they aren't Hugh McFadyen."
Just no more "so hard done by" spinning, 'kay?
* * * * * * * *
Just once, ONCE, I'd like to try one of those "scary" right-wing budgets that is supposed to ruin the fortunes of the country. Just once. *sigh*
* * * * * * * * * * * *
$9.3 Billion in Revenues. Compared to $6.6ish that was the 1999-2000 budget. Manitoba's population is up only slightly over that period of time. So I ask you, do you feel you are getting level of service approximately 50% greater than in the late 90's?
Further, during the election you're going to hear A LOT about the "dark days" of Filmon and cutting nurses and slashing services.....Well, I don't have the numbers handy, but compare the decisions that had to be made when Paul Martin was cutting federal transfers by the hundreds of millions to the decisions that the government today gets to make when transfers are increasing by hundreds of millions. Big difference, right? Only one party thinks you are stupid enough not to realize that.
Finally, the rubber band that is the tuition freeze gets pulled back more and more. If I was Grade Nine or Ten....I'd be starting to get out the padding, because when the rubber band is let go, she's gonna sting!
Tories, before we go into the election, please, I beg of you....Find areas you are willing to cut. You can't tell me that in a $9.2 Billion budget that you can't find $350 million or so that could be snipped. Let the electorate make a choice between a significant tax cut and those government programs. I swear up and down that if you choose the right areas to prune, that the people will respond. Don't be scared to change the focus of the debate from "Who Can Spend Better?" to "Why Should We Spend?"
(PS: A Tory on the planning committee recently remarked to me that he hadn't figured out Doer's ballot question yet. I told him what it is and I double dare anyone to suggest a better one:
"Is Hugh McFadyen ready to be Premier?"
There it is.
"Don't take the risk." "He's an amateur." "Don't go back."
It's all right there. Doer's running the Mike Harris 1999 campaign (though without the record). Instead of "Dalton McGuinty: He's just not up to the job", it's "Hugh McFadyen: Ditto". I guarantee that Doer is expecting Hugh to campaign stumble just enough that such a ballot question is favourable to the guy already in the drivers' seat.
This is an interesting gamble for "the country's most popular Premier", who you would think would run on himself (ala 2003) if he really believed the hooey anmore. No, he knows that there's a potential to upset if the "agent of change" argument gets strong enough, thus he has to go full-bore after said agent.
Could be a big risk though. I believe Hugh's actually going to do a pretty good job on the trail. Sure, there's going to be at least one major gaffe to befall him*, and possibly a few minor ones, but overall, he's sincere, charming and will come across as "fresh in comparison to a Premier who has been on the provincial scene since Expo '86 was rolling into Vancouver. If Gary Doer really wants to make the election about Mr. McFadyen - and I sincerely believe that he does - then that puts the election result almost 100% into the Tories court to determine.
Time to step up Hugh. )
* - It will happen. I guarentee it. In fact, once the writ is called, I should organize a pool for how many days into the election does it happen.
Tuesday, April 3
"Dear Roommates: I appreciate the effort and I'm sure it saves a lot of water...."
I Don't Promise Quality, But I Promise One Bitchin' Setlist
If I ever have a mid-life crisis and end up learning the guitar to play in a cover band, I promise we're going to do one awe-inspiring cover of 1991's Animal Heart.
Why no Canadian band has taken the guitar rippin' sing-a-long for themselves yet, I don't know.
Why no Canadian band has taken the guitar rippin' sing-a-long for themselves yet, I don't know.
The Early Reviews Are In On Early Daylight Savings Time...
....And they're not so good.
I personally like the change, because I've got a thing for daylight when I'm leaving work, which is what the change enabled. That being said, a question to Manitoba Hydro to determine their impacts would not be out of the question, right?
PS: For weeks leading up to the change, my company's IT monkeys kept sending out emails about being prepared for the early change.
Then nothing happened when the change took place. So the monkeys then sent around emails for ten days about "being close to the fix".
Nothing happened. The monkeys stopped sending emails.
April 1st came and lo and behold! The problem was solved.
Gotta love the monkeys.
Reuters spoke with Jason Cuevas, spokesman for Southern Co. power, who said it plainly: "We haven't seen any measurable impact." New Jersey's Public Service Enterprise Group said the same thing: "no impact" on their business.
I personally like the change, because I've got a thing for daylight when I'm leaving work, which is what the change enabled. That being said, a question to Manitoba Hydro to determine their impacts would not be out of the question, right?
PS: For weeks leading up to the change, my company's IT monkeys kept sending out emails about being prepared for the early change.
Then nothing happened when the change took place. So the monkeys then sent around emails for ten days about "being close to the fix".
Nothing happened. The monkeys stopped sending emails.
April 1st came and lo and behold! The problem was solved.
Gotta love the monkeys.
Monday, April 2
Every Once In A While, This White Boy Grooves.....(I Think)
Caught this song on Rap City while flipping channels last week. Not only do the Toronto MCs have a video that carries a wicked punchline and commentary on urban development, it also brings a funky & moody beat and delivers as catchy a hook as you'll ever find in its chorus.
Point Blank: "Born And Raised In The Ghetto"
Point Blank: "Born And Raised In The Ghetto"
/~Well, Beat The Drum And Hold The Phone - The Sun Came Out Today~/
Got a beat-up glove, a homemade bat, and brand-new pair of shoes;
You know I think it’s time to give this game a ride.
Just to hit the ball and touch ’em all - a moment in the sun;
(pop) it’s gone and you can tell that one goodbye!
- "Centerfield", John Fogarty
Yes folks, that's right. The big hyped "live blogging return" is not about politics. (Though we'll likely dip into a line here or there...Maybe I'll even flip over to QP if they are sitting this week and I'm not exactly sure if they are).
No, it's Opening Day for the Blue Jays and I couldn't help but take a few hours off work to come and watch. Figured I would comment a bit while I did it.
12:05 pm - And we're off. Reed Johnson's at the plate. And in classic Reed sense, he walks.
12:07 - Reed's running and while it looks like Detroit Tigers' catcher Pudge Rodriguez is going to get him, Reed just makes it while the crowd boos and I cheer on the first stolen base of the year.
12:09 - That stolen base pays off. Two-hole batter first-baseman Lyle Overbay hits - what else? - a double and hits Reed home. Two batters into the 2007 season and the Jays are leading the AL Champion Detriot Tigers 1 - 0.
12:11 - I'm partically giddy. Vernon just singled up the middle and knocked Overbay in for the second score. Bring on Frank Thomas, the Big Hurt.
12:14 - Frank popped out, but Wells just stole second. That's two SBs thus far and we're only halfway through the order. Troy Glaus popped fly for Out Two. Alex Rios - prove that last year's start wasn't a fluke!
12:16 - What should have been the third out on a Rios pop fly to shallow left scored Wells, who took off running prior to the hit. Rios blooped, but the fielders screwed up and it dropped, allowing Vernon to cross home plate for the score. Luckily for Detroit, they just got Zaun for the final out of the first half of one. Impressive start for the '07 Jays. Even without the Rios flyball error, they had two earned runs into the dugout.
12:24 - With one out and one on second, Halliday is battling Sheffield. Down 3-1 in the count. On a fast ball, the bat gets broken on a lame shot to 3B Troy Glaus, who stares back the runner and tosses the former Yankee out at first.
12:27 - And Jays GM J.P. Riccardi gets some kudos. His stop-gap at shortstop - journeyman Royce Clayton (who I'm positive played himself as a strikeout in the Dennis Quaid Disney movie "The Rookie") - just made a leaping defensive play, stopping a hit, tossing out the hitter, thus saving a run and end the inning. The word on Clayton is to expect him to be an out four out of five plate appearances, however his fielding will pay off for it.
12:32 - ....To which Clayton replies, "Cram it you bums!" Aaron Hill flyed out, but Clayton made a single to bat 1.00 for the first time ever quite likely. (According to IMDB, Clayton was Jim Morris' first out in real life, but Clayton did not play himself. Too bad, I swore the actor was a dead ringer when I caught the flick on ABC Saturday night.)
12:38 - Clayton's still at first and Overbay's got a full count with two out. Detroit pitcher Jeremy Bonderman is already up to 46 pitches, which is insane when you remember that it is Opening Day, the second inning and Frank Thomas/Troy Glaus/Alex Rios are leading off the next inning. This is good, good, good for the Jays. Chase him out by the end of the fourth and then beat up the Tigers' bullpen. Even with tomorrow being a bonus, it's always fun to rattle a bullpen early in a series. In the meantime, Vernon flyed out in right to end the inning.
12:48 - You know, normally when an NHL team fires its head coach in the last week of the season despite being one of the top teams in the conference, you would view that as a sign of weakness.
Not the New Jersey Devils though. Somehow, this move makes them scarier somehow.
12:54 - Shows what I know. Thomas/Glaus/Rios just went K, fly, fly. Still, Bonderman is up to 58 pitches. On opening day, he's good for what? 85-90? The Jays can still rough him up and chase him out after five.
1:00 - One out, Tigers on first and third, Sheffield at the plate. Could be a fun battle.
1:01 - Fly out to Reed Johnson, but the runner on third scored. 3-1 Jays.
1:04 - Halliday's getting into trouble. Ordonez just worked a 0-2 count into a full count and then hit a single. Runners on 1 and 2.
1:08 - Hard hit to Rios in right to end the inning, but now I'm worried about Halliday's pitch count. The final out was pitch number sixty for the day.
1:18 - No Question Period to review...With Easter this weekend, I didn't think they would be sitting. Instead, CPAC is showing some agricultural forum with Minister Chuck "I'm Getting Rid Of The CWB Monopoly" Strahl. I was happy with the results of last week's vote. When it comes to a monopoly telling me that they absolutely, positively MUST stay a monopoly or else they might as well go out of business altogether (in this case, the barley business), then my guy reaction is that probably they should be out of the business. We'll see how stubborn the CWB board is, but my hunch is that should they choose to remain in the barley sector, they'll do okay.
1:32 - Doc's in trouble. No out. Runners on the corners, the Tiger's just closed the gap to 3-2. Halliday's in the low 80's pitch count, and Sheffield's coming up. Fight it Doc. Fight it.
1:48 - Thomas made it on, but the Jays went one, two, three after that (though Glaus was two feet away from a two-run homer that was caught above the bullpen fence). In the meantime, Greg Staples is also in a baseball mood and linked to this gem of a movie speech.
1:51 - Halliday just threw number one hundred. This must be his last inning. 102 was a strike and ended the sixth. Watch for the Tigers to switch up their pitchers after the break.
Seems like a good time to make a few predictions for the year. My heart wants the Jays to be in it, and while they should remain in the hunt, it's tough to call them as AL East leaders when you have Boston and New York to deal with. The Yankees pitching sounds suspect (at least until Roger Clemmons and his non-steroids arrive in June) and Boston just has one of those "twitchy" looks to them. Dice-K can't be that great right out of the gate and it sounds like he gets pissy under pressure. Perfect for Boston. Like everyone else, I'm in the "Everything has to break right" for the Jays, but I'm also thinking that they are due a little good luck this season.
Around the rest of the AL, the Central looks mean, but that could also mean that they beat each other up, enabling the Wild Card to return to the East (likely Toronto's best chance at a post-season berth). In the West, it would be extremely hard not to like the Angels as Oakland's falling off the pace and the Mariners and Rangers don't appear remarkably better.
Let's go: Indians, Angels, Yankees.....With the Jays in the Wild Card (though in four months I might be striking that out and putting in "Red Sox").
2:00 - Blast it! Monroe, the same fielder who robbed Glaus, just robbed Johnson of an even harder hit dinger. Royce Clayton was even on base (better OnBase% that Vernon this game), so that could have broke the game open.
2:05 - That inning went no where and our first Jays reliever of the new year.....Casey Janssen, step right up!
2:09 - Ten pitches later, he's done his inning. Very well done young man.
2:24 - Once again the Jays did poorly, but once again Janssen came out and retired the Tigers one, two, three. We're headed into the ninth, but I doubt BJ Ryan's getting warmed up yet. Need the Jays to score a cheapie here with Zaun, Hill and Clayton up to bat.
2:29 - Canadian bench player Matt Stairs is in for Clayton. Hill's on first with one out. I'm assuming that Stairs will play right and after Johnson's next at-bat, John MacDonald will come in to play short.
2:30 - Stairs hit into the double play. Crap. Now where do you cycle the guys? Glaus to short and Stairs to third? You cannot pinch hit into a double play. Terrible, terrible, terrible!
2:33 - Oh, I was being foolish. Of course, you just insert MacDonald for Stairs and play as normal. Speaking of foolish, if Gary Doer doesn't call the election this week, then he's being foolish himself.
2:35 - Janssen's out yet again to hold Pudge at bay. I like this call by John Gibbons. Janssen rewards his skipper with a strikeout and Scott Downs is coming into the game. Good use of a young pitcher who started in the fifth spot of the rotation in 2006.
2:41 - Downs couldn't get his guy despite being ahead in the count. On full count, Zaun had a foul bounce out of the glove and Down walked him on the next pitch. Jason Frasor, COME ON DOWN!!!!
2:46 - Tigers' OF Craig Monroe might have done really well in the field, but he just got tapped for his fourth K of the day. Downs got him one, two, three pitches. 1 out, 1 on first.
2:47 - And by one out, I meant two out, and Johnny Mac just threw out number three. It's Opening Day 2007 and we're going into Extra Innings. (Sorry work, hopefully it won't be too many innings.)
2:57 - Detroit P Fernado Rodney is wearing his ballcap slightly aschew and I can't tell if the large chain-wearing black man is doing that because of the sun (quite possible) or to project a gangsta-ish image (also quite possible).
3:01 - Vernon Wells just walked putting him on first and Overbay on 2nd with only one gone. Thomas is up and Sportsnet just played a montage of him hitting dingers to set up the scene. Please Frank, end the game. Just score Overbay and I have no doubt BJ Ryan will close it out. I have to get back to work soon.
3:03 - The Big Hurt's behind 1-2.
3:04 - Gangsta man Rodney just caught Frank on the forearm. Bases loaded and Troy Glaus is up with no out. i would really like to feel more confident right now.
3:05 - Whaaaaa? Jason Smith in to pinch run for Overbay on 3rd. That makes little sense to me. Overbay's no slowpoke.
3:06 - I was starting to type about my bad feelings towards Glaus, who looked ugly falling to 0-2. Then Troy chopped a solid drive to left and scored Smith. (Everyone advanced one.) Jays 4-3. I'm tempted to call it a day and head back to work, but I want to stay and see BJ. Come on Rios, plunk another to the outfield.
3:08 - Rios blooped an infield chopper. Wells had a jump, so there was no play at home. Tigers get Rios at 1st, but a run for an out is a trade you make in this situation every day and twice on Sunday.
3:11 - Zaun strikes out. (Not a great day for him 0 - 5, but at least no one stole against him.) Here comes BJ!
3:14 - BJ gets his first K of the year for out one, and that somehow reminds me to remind you to check out "Sad Kermit" on You Tube before The Jim Henson Company & Disney order it taken down. It's pretty sweet viewing.
3:16 - And there's his first hit. A single. Gary Sheffield's up now.
3:17 - BJ got him swinging. Jays had to appeal to the first base ump, but got the call.
3:19 - And Beej's first walk. Carlos Guillen up. I still think this is over.
(So why haven't I left yet?)
3:20 - I can leave. Guillen swung at the first pitch to pop out to Aaron Hill. Game over. Toronto: 5....Detroit: 3. Baseball season is upon us.
3:22 - I'd wrap up, but I've got to get back to work. Later all.
Today's The Day I Try To Get Back On The Horse
Sunday, April 1
Great Story
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