CPC: 34% (+3%)What does this tell us?
Lib: 29% (-8%)
NDP: 14% (n/c)
Green: 12% (5%)
Bloc: 11% (n/c)
(Change is from the Liberal convention polling circa first week of December 2006.)
First, that the Liberals will be in no rush to go back to the polls, no matter how tough they talk.
Second, that the Tories aren't yet ready to go, but they are getting closer.
Jack Layton better hope that there's no one waiting in the wings. (There isn't.)
If nothing else can happen this year, Jean Charest
getting re-elected and the Bloc taking another federal smack circa election-1997, then 2008 will be productive indeed.
The Greens still don't belong at the debates in their currently accepted format. (And if someone gives me two to one odds on a $25 wager, I'll take the Greens getting zero seats in the election. Think about that....The entire field vs. zero.)
*What does it not tell us?
Dion is dead leader walking. He's painted himself into a corner (far better than the Tory attack ads ever could), but it's ridiculous to assume that it would be impossible to turn it around with three good months. His best bet is to make sure the government does not fall this spring and then go on a summer/fall charm offensive. Regroup for next year Stephane
That the Tories' strategy has been working over the last six weeks since the cabinet shuffle. (Doesn't it feel so long ago?)
Just how many seats the NDP
lose. As bad as the numbers are, I can't imagine enough leaking to the Greens or Liberals to really knock them down. A couple in BC may go Tory, but other than that, who knows where the rest go?
Why I used a Futurama
quote as the title of this post. (No reason. I just started typing when it came on Teletoon
and I found myself chuckling.)
*What can we assume?
The budget will pass.
There will be some Liberal skulduggery
as delegates start wondering if Ignatieff
or even Rae would have been the better pony.
That Elizabeth May will continue to build on her momentum. (Right up until it runs out on E-day when the Green vote splits all across the land and no little Greenies
get to go to Ottawa. You watch, it'll happen.)
replacements will be getting their acts together this year. Who these people are, I have no idea, but they are out there and they will have teams quietly (or not so quietly) put together.
There will be at least one close call to an election this spring.
The song "Sayonara
" by The Operation M.D. [Link
] - a pet project of Sum 41er Cone McCaslin
and H2O/Juliette And The Licks' Todd Morse - may be the catchy tune you hear everywhere this spring/summer. Their album hits stores today. I include this only because I just heard the song and damn it's catchy.