Hacks & Wonks

Let's keep it to comments for now. Emails and identity disclosures are so 2002. If I prove to be right, I'll be in touch. I'm commenting from home, so the IP won't show anything work-related and interesting. ;)

I say the final score will be 30-23-4.

I give the Tories two pickups outside Winnipeg and one in the city. Take your pick of Fort Garry, St. James or St. Norbert. I call St. Norbert myself, but will admit to the possibility of being wrong. La Verendrye goes blue for sure and Brandon West sends Ricky B to Broadway. Hats off to Colin for his astute predictions in an earlier thread.

The Liberals will barely (barely!) hold Inkster, pissing off the Premier to no end. They will take Fort Rouge in a well-deserved brawling victory and Rhonda Powers will sneak up the muddled middle in Wellington while the NDThree squabble away about who is using the official party colours.

A couple of other ridings will be very close (including Kirkfield Park, which will scare the crap out of the Tories, St. James, which will do the same for the NDP and Dr. J's leafy Liberal stronghold of River Heights, which will guarantee a solid future for Ms. Burner.

Overall, the popular vote shifts away from the NDP, but the Tory vote is too concentrated in rural MB and they can't crack Winnipeg as much as they need to.

There you go. First out of the gate. If there was a hockey game on tonight, I wouldn't be doing this. And on that note, what member of the NHL's one-celled brain trust came up with that 1 PM start for tomorrow. Idiots.

I say NDP 33, PC 22, Liberal 2.

The Tories win La Verendrye and manage to steal St. Norbert back due to a strong Liberal candidate siphoning votes away from Brick. They stall everywhere else.

The Liberals re-elect their two incumbents. Hesse gives Howard a scare but comes up short. Santos and Chan poll a grand total of 700 votes between them and Marcelino beats Powers by over 1000.

The Dippers re-elect everyone except Brick and Lemieux. Smith wins Brandon West by 300 votes and Struthers gets a scare. They come up just short in Inkster and Kirkfield Park, and do worse than expected in Southdale.

Liberals 6 according to polls
Fort Rouge
River Heights
Inkster
Maples
Minto
Wellington
Actually polls in Wellington have Powers washing the Flor...

Are these the Liberal Party fantasy-make believe polls?

A little history: in 1990, the Liberals won 7 seats with 28.15% of the vote (the NDP had 28.8%). In 1995, the Liberals won 3 seats with 23.75%

The Liberals need to be getting at least 25% in the polls if they're going to win 6 seats. They're not even close, and so they'll be lucky to re-elect their two incumbents.

Meanwhile, the real polls show the Liberals tanking: Angus Reid has them at a whopping nine percent . Link: http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2007.05.19%20Manitoba%20Election.pdf

These numbers should squash once and for all this silly Liberal spin about winning Fort Rouge, Wellington, Minto and The Maples. If they're under 10 percent, Dr. Jon and Kevin are both in serious danger of losing their seats.

Winnipeg

Assiniboia
The Fletcher legions not withstanding, Jim is a strong constituency worker. May reduce his plurality a bit, but only if Hughie returns to his glory days of dropping literature in the constituency.

Burrows
Martindale is a shoo in. Surprise surprise.

Charleswood
Ditto for the shrill Ms. Dreidger.

Concordia
Hah!

Elmwood
Hah hah!

Fort Garry
I know there is a widespread feeling that this is blue country, but the riding has changed and Kerri has worked tirelessly in it since she was elected. She'll boost her margin by 500 to a 1000.

Fort Rouge
A tight one given Hesse's candidacy, but Howard will prevail by a thin margin.

Fort Whyte
No contest.

Inkster
Very interesting race, hard fought. Kevin by a whisker.

Kildonan
Nobody will touch Dave.

Kirkfield Park
Despite high hopes for growth here and in Southdale, I think the NDP have abandoned hope of taking either constituency. Friends tell me they are being redeployed elsewhere to shore up seats we currently hold.

Lord Roberts
Diane in a walk.

The Maples
Despite the controversy, Saran is a highly regarded member of the community. The margin of victory will be closer, but will stay with the NDP.

Minto
The libs are dreaming in technocolour. Helgason wasn't close when Swan won the byelection and Andrew is now the incumbant. He also works as hard in the constituency as Mihaychuk ever did.

Point Douglas
George will be just fine and if he doesn't return as Speaker (an unlikely prospect), expect him to kick sand in Hughie's face for dumping an urban beach in a community with old working class roots without even bothering to consult them. Helloooo Hughie...this is not an abandoned rail yard.

Radisson
This will be one of the tougher ones to hold. Linda West is running a stronger than expected campaign and the olywest issue still has resonance. This is one of the places the NDP will have tomove people from Kirkfield and Southdale to hold. Should be close, but as matters stand, I'd call it a steal for the tories.

Riel
It will be a spirited contest but Christine will prevail, visits from the Hughmobile notwithstanding.

River East
You gotta like Kurt Penner, one of the gentlest and friendliest people you would ever meet. Bonnie has been there forever, however, and will likely stay until she decides to leave.

River Heights
Yes, Gerard will hold on.

Rossmere
Another constituency that the NDP are having trouble holding. Harry's retirement leaves the constituency without an incumbant and they need shoring up. If they get a hand, Erna will bring it home.

Seine River
Sorry Hack. I know how you and Steve feel, but we're gonna keep this one.

St. Boniface
Not even close. Selinger jigs to the finish line.

St. James
I fail to see why the conservatives are so optimistic about St. James. Bonnie will bring it home despite the the Liberal turned Conservative McGhee's best efforts.

St. Johns
Gord in a walk.

St. Norbert
Another constituency that is deemed to be conservative by devine right, though the orange and black literature denouncing Brick with Brousseau's message on the other side might belie that. Regardless. Brousseau will discover just how hard Marilyn works in the constituency. Brick with an increased plurality.

St. Vital
Nancy has nothing to worry about.

Southdale
A heart breaker given all the work that's gone into developing the constituency. Erin is a spledid candidate and her time will come soon. The conservatives better hope Cactus Jack doesn't suffer a coronary during session. Given his performance in the House, it won't come as a result of over exertion.

Transcona
You're kidding, right?

Tuxedo
Matt! Matt! Matt!...oh well...

Wellington
Hooboy. I'm taking Flor inspite of her late entry in the race. A very fine, intelligent woman.

Wolseley
Rob always works hard though I don't think he's facing a serious challenge.


TOTAL: NDP 22 (-1) PC 7 (+1) LIB 2

And the rest....

Curtis has done the heavy lifting here, so I'll just add to his erudition.

First, in it's own unique world, neither rural, nor urban, and sometimes both, Brandon:

Brandon East
Will have to go with Curtis. Drew in a squeeker.

Brandon West
Much as I hate to admit it, I don't think Scott will withstand the Borotsik assault. Borotsik will win by a hair, then spend the next four years staving off the bum's rush by the right wing. Red tories are sooooo Joe Clark.

Rural and Northern Manitoba

Arthur-Virden
Larry Maguire, the best Ag critic Manitoba never had. And with good reason. If he was, everyone would know where the PCs REALLY stood on single desk marketing. I like Bob, but the affable Mr. Maguire will return to the legislature.

Carman
I think no one will be terribly surprised if I pick Blaine Pedersen. Having said that, Denis still has legal proceedings outstanding against the conservative party that should prove rather divisive in the aftermath of an overall tory loss - even if it doesn't change the final outcome.

Dauphin-Roblin
I'm with Curtis, Stan's the Man. Even Inky supports the single desk.

Emerson
Agree with Curtis, it's Graydon.

Flin Flon
"The constituency will soon be home to the world's largest teepee and the 512th re-elected member of Gary Doer's caucus that's a former schoolteacher." Very funny, Curtis, and BTW there's only two r's in Gerard. Not many people know how hard Gerard works in his constituency, but no matter. When you can't even field a candidate in the riding, and then you go around telling the good people of Brandon that money currently allocated to fix northern roads should flow south...never mind. Rest assured Gerard hasn't gone fishing. He ain't that kind of guy.

Gimli
Peter by a VERY WIDE margin. Okay, call me a homer. I saw Chris debate Peter.
VERY WIDE.

Interlake

Nevakshonoff is one of Cotton's delusional obsessions. Don't know why and could care less. But I do know that Tom's a feisty little guy on the campaign trail. Agree with Curtis regarding the margin. Another constituency where the single desk controversy will have an impact.

La Verendrye
Wish I could call this one for Ron. Really do. But it will probably be Stefaniuk by a thin majority.

Lac Du Bonnet
Oh Lord, what can one say about Gerald Hawranik except that he has a decent rss feed. Particularly painfull to watch are his facial expressions when Selinger pummels him in the House. Ouch ouch ouch. Hugh have mercy. Let him trade critic portfolios with Reimer. Then Reimer would have a coronary for sure.

Lakeside
Ralph (Mr. Wardrobe) Eichler. Yes Campbell was first elected there in 1922 and held it to his retirement in the sixties. And then came Harry Enns who held it for three decades plus. And then came Ralph Eichler. Why, we're not sure yet. Never mind. He'll stay there.

Minnedosa
Landslide Leanne Rowat will increase her slim majority over Harvey Paterson this time inspite of NDP carpet bombing of the riding with pro single desk literature and her unofficial role as PC ambassador to Brandon.

Morris
yes Mavis.

Pembina

Peter George Dyck will win but only because he's too chicken to debate Lisa Moore.

Portage la Prairie
David Faurschou be afraid. Be very afraid. Kostuchuk is a formidable candidate assisted in his bid by one of Wawanesa's finest. And given the rancour that surrounded his nomiation, I doubt he's getting a lot of heavy lifting from Brian Pallister or Ryan Matthews. And given this was a hit engineered by Hughie, it must be particularly galling that he has to ride in to shore up the riding. I'm calling Kostuchuk, because rumour has it we’re sending in help to finish the job .

Rupertsland

Saw the buzz Prystupa did on the CBC about David Harper candidacy, but agree with Curtis. Eric should have little to worry about.

Russell
I disagree with Curtis on this one. Teri Nicholson is indeed a fine candidate and late start or not, she has a spirited group of volunteers behind her. Again, the single desk issue will be a factor and the fact that Len's star has waned in the tory caucus by Kelvin's elevation to House leader. The writing is on the wall, but I'll call Len in a squeaker.

Selkirk
Greg Dewar. That wasn't hard, was it.

Springfield
Ernest is a great candidate but love him or hate him, Schulander is a campaigning machine.

Ste. Rose
Agree with Curtis, Stu Briese

Steinbach
Curtis writes "Not even my covert video footage of Kelvin dirty dancing with a group of interns while shotgunning a 24 of Labatt Blue is going to make this seat switch hands."

How do you know? Did you try youtubing it? Nawww....

Swan River
Rosann in a walk.
Maxine's cat is her campaign manager and confident. Time for this star candidate to retire and return to blogging.

The Pas
Oscar is a shoo in.

Thompson
Ashton by three gazillion.

Turtle Mountain
Cliff by an equal number.

TOTAL: NDP 11 (-1), PC 15 (+1), LIB 0

GRAND TOTAL: NDP 33 (-2), PC 22 (+2), LIB 2

I really cannot see the NDP losing too many incumbent seats in the city unless all the polls are *way* off. I thought Radisson was shaky earlier but I just can't see Linda West making up a 1,000-vote deficit when the Tories are polling behind the Liberals in that part of the City and Jha is now the incumbent. I agree that NDP wins in Kirkfield Park and Southdale are looking unlikely. I still think a Tory steal in St. Norbert is a likely outcome due to a stronger-than-most Liberal campaign. If Irvin-Ross wins again in Fort Garry it will be by less than 500 votes.

I agree La Verendrye is gone, but I do not think Brandon West is done. Smith won it in 1999 when NDP numbers outside the Perimeter were not much better than now. Plus he's the incumbent cabinet minister. I stand by my prediction.

Kudos to Uncle Joe for: a) admitting his bias; and b)giving some honest picks anyway. Can't agree with you on Portage, but I wouldn't agree on Radisson either. And I'll give Hesse the benefit of the doubt in Fort Rouge (at least that's what the Freep seems to be telling me).

Tories steal Brandon West, La Verendrye, Seine River, and Interlake (it's no coincidence both McFadyen and Doer visited the riding in multiple towns over the weekend).

The party holds on in Kirkfield Park and Portage la Prairie, but lose Southdale.

Liberals take Fort Rouge and barely hold on to the two seats they have.

So ...

NDP 31, Tories 23, Liberals 3

Flor avoided meeting voters..a fine woman indeed..no door to door greeting or wasting her time actually campaigning in Wellington. A fine, fine, woman..so fine in fact when Powers wins she will walk next door and give up her red crocks to Flor for the next match up..

Good Lord...if I see more Liberal spin about Wellington I'm going to start throwing things.

Two facts:

1) The NDP won Wellington with 75% of the vote last time. Even if Chan and Santos manage to draw half of that vote (which they won't) the NDP still wins.

2) The Liberals are on a downward slide in the homestretch. The last poll has them in single digits. Last time they were in single digits (in 1981) they were shut out of the Legislature. They will, at best, re-elect Gerrard and Lamoureux. Hoping for a pickup (especially in a seat where the NDP got 75% of the vote in 2003) is just a pipe dream.