Hacks & Wonks

Every time I see a poll, I keep thinking about MAW's column in the Freep, the one called "Remember Browaty".

As she pointed out, the civic election last fall was full of surprises. Just saying this one could be too.

What that surprise is, I don't know. But I think the pundits will all be shaking their heads on Wednesday morning.

Yeah, keeping clinging to that fantasy, if it helps you sleep at night...Anyone who was actually on the ground in North Kildonan knew that Lubosch was toast....

NDP losing four seats outside the Perimeter? Doubtful. So the Tories rack up bigger margins in the seats they already hold and do better in close seats like Portage and Minnedosa - big deal. The NDP might lose La Verendrye and one of Gimli or Brandon West, but that will be it. The Tories net two seats outside of Winnipeg, tops. In Winnipeg, they'll be lucky to get a wash.

Look for a Doer hat-trick on Tuesday.

With these numbers I see the NDP picking up a few seats in Winnipeg and losing an equivalent number outside the city. Inkster, Kirkfield Park, and Southfield being the most likely pickups. I think the Liberals might be decimated.

I'm starting to think the Liberals will pick up Fort Rouge, but Inkster will probably go orange.

What about River Heights? Is Dr. J in any danger from the Tories there?

No..Dr. J is solid in the Heights, Kevie is locked and loaded and ready to declare a victory in Inkster they love the guy, Romy or no Romy, it doesn't matter the streets are red with KL signs. Maples, Minto, and Fort Rouge are swinging red..and Wellington is going to be a ripper..the one PC and the three NDP's are dividing the Filipino vote and the Liberal candidate is coming up the middle with the majority of voters who are confused and angry with the Dippers.

Fort Rouge going red? Whaaaaa??
Howard pulled more than 4K from Brandon-Souris (c.c.c.c.conservative) in a Fed election. FR is a cake walk.

Opinions above are correct/wrong in this order.
Wrong.
Wrong.
Wrong.
...oh nevermind.

Can anyone explain why "private" is used an an epithet in the NDP ads? Has Winnipeg especially become so habituated to government-sourced salaries and wages that the ads can disparage private-sector earnings? Someone from outside might conclude that public work provides steady-state security to a mediocre society.

I've voted NDP in Fort Rouge for the last several elections becasue Tim Sale was a good, honest MLA, but I'm going Liberal in this election because Howard has been pretty lazy and taking the riding for granted.

I see Hesse door knocking everywhere, he's hit my door 3 times now, before the election once and now twice in the past month.

He also sounds more like an NDP'er than the NDP. Waverley West, Rapid Transit, Environment, Poverty. He talked with me about all of them, whereas all I got from Howard was a flyer with Doer on it.

Why isn't Howard working hard? Is she that confidant?

I love speculation so here we go - River Heights holds fairly easily as does Fort Rouge. With respect to the former, the Heights are not going to elect someone that young no matter how nice or talented they are. On the PC side, Southdale also holds though Reimer gets a scare. A justifiably nervous Lemieux holds La Verendrye but with a much reduced majority - say 400 votes (down from 1500). Brandon West goes Tory though Smith's put up a heck of a fight. Borotsik had a terrible start to his campaign or it might have been a walk. The Jets hangover didn't help. Brandon East was never a race nor was Gimli. The Tories lose Kirkfield Park because they again nominate a "kid" in what is demographically one of the oldest areas of the city (friend of Hugh's I guess). Where's the "A" team?

Lameroux and Magsino are too close to call. Kevin's tough and may survive. Wellinton? Just plain weird though very difficult to see a sanctioned and quality NDP candidate (finally) losing in what is an orange dog riding - particularly given the ground troops the NDP have in there. With respect to the others: Chan's been tossed for reasons now quite public. Mr. Santos should have retired honorably for reasons obvious to anyone familiar with the situation. Could no one talk him out of it? In spite of a decent liberal candidate the result will remain the same as 2003.

Minto's a predicable blowout. Fort Garry's safe as hardworking KI Ross is simply too strong. Questions remain with respect to Seine River and St. Norbert but here again the PC's did not nominate well. Give them a pick up of one.

Portage will stay PC no thanks to McFadyen as will Minnedosa. Interlake holds as well for NDP. From where I sit there's not much else in play really inspite of the insistence of some. Incumbency and low voter turnout will save several though no doubt there will be a surprise or two. Outcome -third NDP majority. Til Tuesday.

Kirkfield park going NDP ??? PLEASE !!! GET REAL !!!

Inkster is a fight for Kevin, but he will squeek by.

Maples and wellington are staying NDP. Same with Minto.

Also no way is Southdale going NDP. Nice try, but Reimer is solid here. There are just too many conservative voters, and you can bet Reimer is going to get them to the polling both.

The NDP are also going to lose St. James to the PCs, along with St. Norbert, Riel, Seine River , Fort Garry , Selkirk and Gimli . Assiniboia will be close too.
The ground campaign in St. James is HUGE. The area is a sea of Blue, and dropping by their office today, they are getting tons of people to advance polls. Kristine Mcghee was working her tail off.

Fort Rouge is safe in NDP hands. River Heights is safe for the Liberal leader.

Brandon West is in trouble for the tories.

St. James stays NDP.

McGee is a giant flake. She stole money from the Liberals to use in her campaign for the Tories, what a slimmy move.

Kirkfield Park goes NDP. Kozier is a loser, always was, always will be.

Inkster stays Liberal. Lameraoux for some reason is popular.

Southdle stays Tory, by a margin of less than 100 votes.

Fort Garry goes Tory. The Liberal candidate is killing Irvin-Ross and sapping her votes away.

St. Norbert, same thing the Liberal candidate is stealing votes from Brick and is going to elect a Tory.

Fort Rouge. I'm calling this the surprise of the night as the Liberals make a small gain against the popular Doer NDP. Doer and company are going to regret they nominated someone to lazy to knock a few doors and hold a safe seat. Allum would have won in a walk, but Howard is making it possible for the strong Liberal candidate to pick it up.

Assinibione. Stays Dipper.

Wellington: Someone can win this riding with 25% of the vote. I give it to the Liberal.

With all due respect to the Hack, you guys aren't going to move any votes in his comments section.

So rather than engaging in partisan boosterism, it would be nice to see a few more legit guesses as to what's going to happen Tuesday.

[Claiming the Tories are going to pick up 5 in the city, or that the Libs are going to win 5 or 6 does not count as "legit"]

For what it's worth, I'll say the final score is 32-22-3, with the tories picking up a few outside the city (La Verendrye, Brandon West), the NDP largely holding, and the Libs picking up one (Fort Rouge, Maples or Wellington).

I think Colin is close to getting it right here. I'll give the Tories one more pickup in Winnipeg, and I'll call an extra one for the Libs (they'll hold Inkster and steal Fort Rouge & Wellington from the NDP).

Final score: 30-23-4