Manitoba Election Predictions Part III - "Making Money On Rural Ridings"
(My wireless is down at home - hence the slow down. If anyone knows why my wireless appears to be connecting to the hub, yet it won't flow anything back to my computer, I'll all ears.)
Where we left off....I had predicted 21 of the 26 non-Winnipeg seats, breaking them down as six for the NDP and fifteen for the Tories. Let's look at the rest:
Take The Smart Money
NDP (2)
Dauphin - Roblin - This is a big shame, because the riding should have been ripe for a serious Tory offensive, possibly a steal. However, the party needed to be organized and fighting it hard for at least six to eight months and that hasn't been happening. Natural shifts and anger towards the NDP's bungling of the Ranchers' Choice operation should make it closer, but in the end, Stan Struthers returns to Winnipeg.
Gimli - Peter Bjornson is a nice enough guy, but when he's officially "on" as a politician, no one comes across quite as smug and arrogant, yet completely clueless as well. It's a funny contradiction. Either way, he still seems to be a favorite at home and some of his biggest mis-steps somehow failed to bite him personally despite an obvious foolishness on his part (Seven Oaks School Division housing development for example). If Gimli switches, the Tories aren't only taking government, but a majority government.
PC (1)
Brandon West - Regular readers know my position on Rick Borotsik getting handed the nomination without working for it. Plus his personal popularity took a blow in conservative circles due to Rick's self-righteous stance towards the Alliance and the federal merger. That being said, he is a strong candidate and Scott Smith's strengths appear larger to those in Winnipeg than in Brandon (including to me, because it seems my opinion of the minister is always more favourable than it is to various Brandon-ites I speak with when visiting). The riding will make for some fun watching, but my hunch is that by May Long weekend, even word out of the NDP camps will be that Scott Smith is going down.
Play The Long Shot, Then Impress Your Friends & Make A Little Money On E-Night
PC (2)
Brandon-East - Spent too much time thinking about it to not call this riding this way and still feel right about it in the morning. Anyone looking at the riding with a truly analytic view should call it this way (though I acknowledge it'll be close). The riding has voted for "right wing" candidates in both the fall's civic election and the 2006 winter federal election. Wouldn't consistency suggest that all three levels should be reasonably within the same range if the voting public has a predisposition towards one party?
Mike Waddell is a stronger candidate than anyone else the Tories have put into place in the riding since before I was born. Think about that. Whereas the early-election nomination has been common-place, Waddell announced a year ago, then was building a team and working the riding for months and months. His organization will rival the NDP's in the riding.
In a cabinet full of acknowledged weaker players, Drew Caldwell is the only one that has ever been removed permanently by the Premier. His stint at Education was weak and troublesome (remember he told a riding to cook the enrollment books to increase their funding?), but let's not forget that he was Family Services Minister at a time when many problems began sprouting up, even if they did not bloom until after his "health-related" departure from cabinet, thus sinking fellow NDP MLA Christine Melnyk. So unlike all those many B-E elections where Len Evans was a perennial cabinet minister and overall party player, we're now talking about general backbencher and nothing more.
I really like the comparison of Drew Caldwell vs. Mike Waddell. Mike's going to pick up some support on simple energy alone. He appeals to the solid right in the riding, however he's also able to win over moderate Liberals as well, which is a swinging voting block in the riding.
I'm going to look at this riding from time to time, but in the end, I really feel this is a "long shot" worth calling early. By week three or so, Curtis Brown will start to pick up the trend line, and who knows, by the final weekend, people will be really watching it closer. Which is why now is the time to lay $10 against anyone's offer of $20. See how really confident they are in Drew Caldwell.
(I've got $50 willing to ride on the riding. First folks who offer 2 to 1 to my email gets in on it.)
Interlake - I'll admit knowing less on the ground about this riding than I do Brandon East, however I believe that many of the same intangibles are in play. Weak MLA taking it a little for granted vs. strong Tory candidate with a decent organization and some time in the field. Tory polling numbers in rural Manitoba that are running in the neighbourhood of 50% (including the northern numbers where there is no way the Tories get one-in-two). This is also a riding where the NDP incompetence on the BSE file surely will be remembered considering the crisis began the last time the NDP were looking for their vote.
If I'm going to be wrong on any predictions in the province, this will the riding I'm sure of it, but for now I'll play potential cabinet minister Garry Wasylowski against weak MLA Tom Nevakshonoff.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
So there you have it. My tally of:
Predicted over/under: 3.5
Tories: 18 (+4)
NDP: 8 (-4)
Tomorrow, let's look at the Winnipeg seats.
Where we left off....I had predicted 21 of the 26 non-Winnipeg seats, breaking them down as six for the NDP and fifteen for the Tories. Let's look at the rest:
Take The Smart Money
NDP (2)
Dauphin - Roblin - This is a big shame, because the riding should have been ripe for a serious Tory offensive, possibly a steal. However, the party needed to be organized and fighting it hard for at least six to eight months and that hasn't been happening. Natural shifts and anger towards the NDP's bungling of the Ranchers' Choice operation should make it closer, but in the end, Stan Struthers returns to Winnipeg.
Gimli - Peter Bjornson is a nice enough guy, but when he's officially "on" as a politician, no one comes across quite as smug and arrogant, yet completely clueless as well. It's a funny contradiction. Either way, he still seems to be a favorite at home and some of his biggest mis-steps somehow failed to bite him personally despite an obvious foolishness on his part (Seven Oaks School Division housing development for example). If Gimli switches, the Tories aren't only taking government, but a majority government.
PC (1)
Brandon West - Regular readers know my position on Rick Borotsik getting handed the nomination without working for it. Plus his personal popularity took a blow in conservative circles due to Rick's self-righteous stance towards the Alliance and the federal merger. That being said, he is a strong candidate and Scott Smith's strengths appear larger to those in Winnipeg than in Brandon (including to me, because it seems my opinion of the minister is always more favourable than it is to various Brandon-ites I speak with when visiting). The riding will make for some fun watching, but my hunch is that by May Long weekend, even word out of the NDP camps will be that Scott Smith is going down.
Play The Long Shot, Then Impress Your Friends & Make A Little Money On E-Night
PC (2)
Brandon-East - Spent too much time thinking about it to not call this riding this way and still feel right about it in the morning. Anyone looking at the riding with a truly analytic view should call it this way (though I acknowledge it'll be close). The riding has voted for "right wing" candidates in both the fall's civic election and the 2006 winter federal election. Wouldn't consistency suggest that all three levels should be reasonably within the same range if the voting public has a predisposition towards one party?
Mike Waddell is a stronger candidate than anyone else the Tories have put into place in the riding since before I was born. Think about that. Whereas the early-election nomination has been common-place, Waddell announced a year ago, then was building a team and working the riding for months and months. His organization will rival the NDP's in the riding.
In a cabinet full of acknowledged weaker players, Drew Caldwell is the only one that has ever been removed permanently by the Premier. His stint at Education was weak and troublesome (remember he told a riding to cook the enrollment books to increase their funding?), but let's not forget that he was Family Services Minister at a time when many problems began sprouting up, even if they did not bloom until after his "health-related" departure from cabinet, thus sinking fellow NDP MLA Christine Melnyk. So unlike all those many B-E elections where Len Evans was a perennial cabinet minister and overall party player, we're now talking about general backbencher and nothing more.
I really like the comparison of Drew Caldwell vs. Mike Waddell. Mike's going to pick up some support on simple energy alone. He appeals to the solid right in the riding, however he's also able to win over moderate Liberals as well, which is a swinging voting block in the riding.
I'm going to look at this riding from time to time, but in the end, I really feel this is a "long shot" worth calling early. By week three or so, Curtis Brown will start to pick up the trend line, and who knows, by the final weekend, people will be really watching it closer. Which is why now is the time to lay $10 against anyone's offer of $20. See how really confident they are in Drew Caldwell.
(I've got $50 willing to ride on the riding. First folks who offer 2 to 1 to my email gets in on it.)
Interlake - I'll admit knowing less on the ground about this riding than I do Brandon East, however I believe that many of the same intangibles are in play. Weak MLA taking it a little for granted vs. strong Tory candidate with a decent organization and some time in the field. Tory polling numbers in rural Manitoba that are running in the neighbourhood of 50% (including the northern numbers where there is no way the Tories get one-in-two). This is also a riding where the NDP incompetence on the BSE file surely will be remembered considering the crisis began the last time the NDP were looking for their vote.
If I'm going to be wrong on any predictions in the province, this will the riding I'm sure of it, but for now I'll play potential cabinet minister Garry Wasylowski against weak MLA Tom Nevakshonoff.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
So there you have it. My tally of:
Predicted over/under: 3.5
Tories: 18 (+4)
NDP: 8 (-4)
Tomorrow, let's look at the Winnipeg seats.
Gimli has a chance of going tory if the liberals have a strong campaign. And the liberal is the former deputy mayor of Gimli. It will be close.
Posted by
Anonymous |
11:15 AM
Hey man.
My hunch is that you're wrong on Brandon East - Mike Waddell is a longer shot than you'd like to believe in the blue camp, but best of luck to him I guess.
However, I think you're wrong, wrong, wrong about Interlake.
- Nevakshonoff knows his constituents, they like him, and he's been putting a lot of effort into the little pockets in the west side of the riding that went Tory the last time.
- More important than Nevakshonoff's strengths by far, though, is how weak Wasylowski really is. Yes, he's been a reeve, but a bit of delving into the recent history of the riding would tell you that even some right-leaning constituents in his old RM of Armstrong haven't got the time of day for this guy because of his hog barn shenanigans on behalf of wealthy friends at the expense of locals.
I think people will be remembering his time as Reeve, will look at how well Tom's represented them on issues, especially drainage, and will return him to office.
Posted by
David |
12:15 PM
Tom has the Interlake in his back pocket. Also this tory guy has a very bad reputation.
Posted by
Anonymous |
5:09 PM
I think this is going to be a very interesting race.
As a result, I've set up a blog dedicated to election 2007.
Drop by and see us sometime!
Posted by
leftdog |
5:21 PM
From my perspective, Tom isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer, has no substantial record of his own to defend, other than the NDP party line (which, if you haven't noticed, isn't too popular outside the Perimeter), will never be in cabinet, and has no influence with the premier, which is kinda sad considering they're both members of the same party.
At the same time, the Tories have a candidate who's well-known to many in the riding, is well respected, and seen as being cabinet minister material if he can deliver the seat and the PCs win government.
I'm not saying it's a slam dunk for the Tories in the Interlake — it's not — but to suggest Tom is wonderful and Garry is weak is, respectfully, foolishness. This riding is very much up for grabs and I think if Hugh has a decent campaign the Tories can steal it.
Posted by
Anonymous |
5:40 PM
Re: Brandon West.
Gee, weren't you Tories all going around crowing that Scott Smith was toast the last time you nominated a popular former Brandon Mayor to run against him, who had the full backing of the business community, etc etc?
I seem to recall that Smith proceeded to crush Reg Atkinson by 2,200 votes. I mean it wasn't even close.
What makes this go-around any different?
Posted by
Anonymous |
7:35 PM
Because personally I didn't believe for once that Reg could beat Scott and wasn't the least bit surprised when he got crushed.
Reg was by far a more polarizing mayor than Rick, who was almost universally beloved, and while Rick earned plenty of jeers for his federal stunts, that was more inside baseball amongst Tories than it was with the public at large.
Add in that 2007 is not 2003 and yeah, it's safer to suggest that Rick can prevail where Scott could not.
Posted by
The Hack |
10:55 PM