I Think I Was Taught That Manitoba's History Goes Back Further Than 1985
When the Liberal popular vote is above 20% and closer to 25%, the Tories usually form government, as they did in 1988, 1990 and 1995.
But when Liberal popularity drops to the mid-teens, which is where it's been stuck for a decade, the NDP tend to form government
Tom's right.......Except the last time that a popular NDP Premier with a tired government went for three majorities.
Just a lowly thirty years ago, Ed Schreyer learned that the Liberals could poll as low as 12.3% and it still wouldn't save the NDP government.
Beware of bad punditry, readers. Too many assumptions are made on generalizations. Remember how the analysts did in the civic election?