Hacks & Wonks

Monday, May 2

41st Federal Election Thoughts & Predictions

Always easier to find old political predictions on the blog as opposed to Twitter where they are quickly lost to the sands of internet time. I can still locate some of the Ghosts of Elections Past by using Google to find them here. E-day is upon us and I had originally planned to dig into it province-by-province, if not riding-by-riding, but events got into the way last night (you may have heard) and I lost a couple of hours to the television and Twitter.

I was not active for this federal campaign. Some other roles have kept me busy two or three weekday nights as it is, plus my wife and I are getting our house ready to put it up for sale within a few weeks. I'm not paid for politics nowadays, so I felt okay making the choice to just sit one out, but I'll admit I started to feel bad in the last week when my opinion on the local race started to soften somewhat.

So here is some basic thoughts and observations on the election in general:

- The Conservative Campaign was poorly run for the first time in three elections. Message track was lost, it felt slow to react (save for the one brief glimmer of abortion talk) and overall, gave Canadians no particular reason to think about them positively. That could cost the majority, but what it really did was prevent any chance that the weakening Liberal vote would consider moving to the Tories in any serious numbers. I hope a serious regroup and rethink will be a part of the postmortem.

- Well, well, well... Hat tip to Jack Layton. His eight-year plan to change the NDP from a Labour/Farmer party to a Downtown-Urban Canada party is finally paying off in spades. Coming off the cancer, and getting through a grueling campaign pace, I must say I am in awe of the achievement. The federal NDP finishing ahead of the Liberals in a general election will be a tremendous psychological achievement for the party. Quebec looks to give the NDP the beachhead that they gave Stephen Harper in 2004. "Official Opposition" will look good on them and bring a new swath of voters to the party.

The shame of it is that Layton is at an age (and health) where he is unlikely to enjoy this success for the long term. Even if I am disturbed by the massage parlor story, I think that political successes such as his should get to be enjoyed, because they are hard to achieve and miserable getting there.

For the record: The Layton-acknowledged facts open up more questions than they answer. The official storyline of the apologists insults my intelligence in light of the scenario that admittedly took place. I make no excuses or apologies for holding up a potential leader of the country to a higher standard than the guy I get to work on my car, be my dentist, etc. We'll see if more media come to this story in the week ahead, but the double-standard in coverage bothers me as a conservative who usually defends the media to other conservatives. I don't believe for one second that the coverage would have been the same with other politicians. Get the facts out of the table, let the public decide if it matters or not.

- I was wrong on Michael Ignatieff. He appears to be a solid campaigner and took the role on with gusto. Problem is, he and the party allowed the Conservatives to establish enough negatives against his leadership, that the best first week of the election still couldn't get his positives to budge. And then when he took the attendance killshot from Jack Layton in the debate, he was suddenly taking fire from both sides and couldn't react quickly enough. (Possibly because of his campaign inexperience. Say what you want about long-time veteran pols. they have usually seen a little bit of everything on the campaign trial and know how to recognize when course corrections must take place.)

Michael Ignatieff's brief sojourn to Canadian politics will be ending shortly. I have never made fun of his accomplishments. I have never made fun of his education. I didn't even give him a hard time about living outside Canada his entire adult life, then returning to run for Prime Minister (and it was always the top prize that appealed to him), though I considered it a major liability. I cannot imagine someone wanting to lead the complicated country that is our homeland without being here to experience some of the major formative events of the last thirty years. Anyone who travels abroad knows that Canadian news does not filter out with the depth and breadth that one gets the full picture.

The party is in major trouble and Liberals will need to pick up the pieces quickly and move on. I don't believe it can survive another dud leader, so who they chose to lead them will make or break the future of the party.

- I strongly believe that a Tory majority would be best for the country. I'm an apologist for Harper somewhat, but I believe that a lot of the gov't shortcomings have come about because of the minority situation combined with not one single natural partner amongst the opposition for cooperation. When that happens, you need to game the system to pass your agenda, and it's that gaming that I really detest about some of the choices made.

I believe that a four-year cool down from constant campaign mode that the country has been in since '03 would only be a good thing for everybody involved. A majority would allow the Prime Minister and gov't to pass their agenda as they wish, finally revealing to all exactly what they would like to implement, as opposed to some of the blocking and stalling that results in the watered down finesse required of passable bills today.

A majority would also allow the opposition to oppose without having to dance around bring down the government. The Liberals and NDP are both experiencing big shake ups. Four years of planning and preparation would make for a stronger pair of parties in 2015 when we would have our next election.

- Now a few factors I'm working into my predictions:

a) Canadian politics usually defaults to the less-interesting.

b) The NDP surge is real, but not overwhelming.

c) The Tories ran a strategy that will pay off with pockets of victories that will offset any losses.

d) The destruction of the Bloc - while something to cheer for - won't be as dire as projected.

e) Elizabeth May still won't be winning a seat.

After looking at it pretty closely for a week, asking around as many folks with knowledge I could, following expert picks on Twitter, and waiting out the last possible polls to gauge the NDP, I'm going with the following numbers for tonight:

Conservatives: 159

New Democrats: 64

Liberals: 56

Bloc Quebecois: 28

Independents: 1 (Arthur)

I think the Tories typically pull more vote than they poll and had them starting the week in the 160s, but had to dial that back, if only to be on the safer side. I see seat pick-ups in Ontario being good for most of their 15 seat gain, but also one or two here (Newfoundland, PEI) and one or two there (Vancouver Island, Yukon). I also don't see them losing a lot in any given area. Maybe one or two in BC, another three or four in Quebec. But nothing major in the form of a country-wide sweep.

People have the advanced polls wrong. Many think that advanced polls will deliver a big victory for non-incumbents, but if you look at where the advanced polling increased the most 2008 to 2011, you start to recognize that it is a lot of Tory ridings and a lot of ridings where the Tories are expected to seriously challenge the incumbent. It will not shock me if in many ridings, the advance poll has the Tories at a larger percentage than the rest of the riding.

Locally, I started out saying 14/14 Manitoba incumbents returned and that was my position as recently as last Wednesday. On Thursday, I began to waiver on Winnipeg North and now think that the NDP wave will get Kevin Lamoureux. Interesting sub-plot there will be if he then runs for his open provincial seat again. Everyone has that as a provincial NDP pick-up right now.

Interesting things could be taking place in Elmwood-Transcona, St. Boniface and Winnipeg South Centre, but again, default to the least interesting and leave them be until somebody surprises tomorrow.

And there will be surprises. Every election has them.

My various wagers at play that have been accumulated over time:

- Harper Majority (made last year) - $20

- Maxime Bernier will return to cabinet under PMSH (made before '08 Elxn) - $20 (I like this one to pay off if the Tories lose Cannon.)

- Winnipeg South Centre goes Tory (made two Christmas's ago) - Pitcher of Beer

- Winnipeg South Centre goes Tory (made last night) - $5 getting four to one which would pay $20

- Winnipeg South will remain Tory (made last year) - $20

- Elizabeth May will not get elected (made six months ago) - $10

- Elizabeth May will not get elected (made three months ago) - $10 (same guy)

- Elizabeth May will not get elected (made two weeks ago) - $20 (yep, all the same die-hard)

- Ruby Dhalla will lose (made last week) - $10

- The Tories will be declared winners (but not majority or minority) within minutes of BC going on-air (made last night) - $10

Probably have room for a few more. Any interested parties can email me to present proposal.

Not sure where I'll be tonight. Most likely landing spot will be the Winnipeg Free Press Cafe downtown. I have heard that there won't be a central CPC party this election and besides, I wouldn't feel right drinking the beer when I didn't help out.

Get out there and vote.

(Ideally for a Conservative.)

Posted by The Hack at Monday, May 02, 2011 | Permalink | Comments

Friday, October 22

Note

For those folks finding me due to today's quote in the Winnipeg Free
Press, I don't post on my blog very regularly anymore. (Though lately
I've been getting the itch and might get at least a little more active
again.)

The best way to keep up to date with my thoughts and opinions is to
follow me (and many others locally) on Twitter at @hacksandwonks.

If you are a new follower, I hope you enjoy what you read.

If you are a longtime follower (Hacks & Wonks recently passed the five-
year mark), I'm sorry I don't write as much as I used to, but we'll
see if I can't get a little bit better in the near future. We
certainly know that enough political activity is taking place to keep
things interesting. I've always appreciated my audience.

Luc

Posted by The Hack at Friday, October 22, 2010 | Permalink | Comments

Tuesday, June 22

Meech

I have a handful of hazy memories of the 1988 Federal Free Trade Election campaign and at least one vivid one from sitting in the kitchen watching the returns come in on election night, but it was the Meech Lake politics that kicked off a four-year period where I took my first interest in Canadian politics. I was eleven when Meech collapsed and had been dabbling in lousy attempts at fiction writing already. Mostly superhero rip-offs of Spider-man and whatever Encyclopedia Brown book I was reading at any given time.

But I did pay attention to the evening news. Three channels and nothing else to watch after all.

And I recall one night, after a particularly ominous-sounding evening's broadcast, I walked into my mother's room where she had been resting and announced I was going to begin work on my first non-fiction work:

"The title is going to be, 'Am I Losing My Country?' and it'll be a kid's view of what's going on."

Mom said something encouraging, as moms are wont to do, and I returned to the kitchen to pick up the coverage once again and plot my manuscript's structure. Of course, I never got beyond the first little bit, but you have to remember the context of why I would feel the way that I did at the time. You have to recall what we would see on the news during that period.

The Berlin Wall had fallen. The USSR was clearly experiencing wild changes. Thatcher was losing her Prime Ministership. George Bush had replaced Reagan not too long beforehand. Again, remember: I wasn't even a teenager yet and only knew "THE BIG STUFF" going on and what I knew was that things were changing, people were making big statements about Canada failing on Meech, Quebec separating, and wouldn't you know it, but it made it sound like there was a lot of turmoil going around the world and that said turmoil was coming onto Canadian soil.

Of course, we know how that turned out.

Still, if there was a period of time that brought me into the political sphere, it was Meech Lake thru 1993 Election Night when I can recall the exact conversation with my father when I told him that I thought I rather liked politics and that maybe down the line I would get into it. Seems like forever ago now.

I can't comment with any authority on Meech itself. Just too young. But had the treat to speak with a few old-school Filmon guys who were around at that time. Some fun stories. Thankful I got that chance. If there was one time period in Canadian history that I could rent the Delorean and head back towards, it would be 1988 election thru the 1993 fallout that I would want to visit. Especially knowing then what I know now.

Will Canada ever get back into the constitutional amendment business? One has to think that logically the answer is yes. But don't ask me to guess when. We're still not over the scars inflicted twenty years ago.

Posted by The Hack at Tuesday, June 22, 2010 | Permalink | Comments

Tuesday, May 11

Though We Were Supposed To Be Looking For Root Causes

Interesting blog post from Freep writer Mary Agnes Welch:

Want to lose all hope for humanity? Don’t waste your time watching The Bachelor or listening to Justin Bieber. No need to travel to Darfur or the Burmese police state. Just read the comments section of every major news website, including ours.
With only the occasional exception, it is a moral wasteland of racism, small-mindedness, ignorance and slander.

Finished with:

If you are a decent, thinking person, combat those comments by posting your own, or report them as offensive. I beg you.

Her post itself led to another active comments section and Welch's position is firmly in the minority of the thirty or so there as I write this.

What I find most interesting is how disconnected she appears to be (or chooses to be, if that's the case) between who these people are making the comments and who she makes them out to be (at one point, referencing the KKK). Welch - like many other left-wingers who have spent the previous decades espousing forgiveness and rehabilitation - doesn't realize that somewhere in the last ten years or so, we probably hit a tipping point in regards to crime and punishment.

What the left doesn't realize is that they blew their opportunity to show that their way could have meaningful impact of the actions of habitual criminals. They kept making excuses why serious crime was affecting more and more people and criminals were not "learning their lessons". They couldn't prevent the steady increase of repeat offenders, people whose actions show again and again that one must choose to rehabilitate and rejoin society. Years went by. Decades went by. They kept trying with their policies and the Canadian justice system was certainly dominated by these motivations. (For example, house arrest, pardons for almost all who apply, etc.)

And now people are getting angry. They have long ago reached the breaking point and are tired of the steady stream of failure on behalf of those who chose to promote the "civilized" way.

And they make comments when they can. People express their frustration in whatever venues appear to give them a voice for their angst.

And "high minded" people like Welch call them racists and bigots for it.

Without evening pretending to understand why so many are angry in the first place.

Posted by The Hack at Tuesday, May 11, 2010 | Permalink | Comments

Wednesday, April 28

Ottawa

Put me down for days of BIG ELECTION SPECULATION!!!, a few emails from Senators Finley and Gerstein begging for money, $100K or so in new Tory donations by Mother's Day, and Ignatieff having to back down in the end when the PM gives him the smallest of outs because that's what 2010 Michael Ignatieff does.

PS: Follow more up to the moment thoughts on Twitter.

Posted by The Hack at Wednesday, April 28, 2010 | Permalink | Comments

Judy Alphabet & October 2011...

(FYI...Some people on the Free Press website and other blogs are ripping on the usage of the Judy Alphabet nickname. Can I just spell out early on that I view it as a nice little nickname for Judy W. and have never heard that she takes offence to it. It's just catchy and easy to remember.)

I've been telling friends for weeks that I think Judy Alphabet beats Mayor Sam Katz in the fall.

There's underlying support for a Sam Katz alternative. 65,000 votes cast for his less than competitive opponents in a not-a-good-year-to-not-be-Sam-Katz 2006 election.

I also think that the recent Probe polling was pretty telling in that it has Judy as a non-announced candidate at 36% to start the day. Now granted that's a lot of "Looking for an option and she's the best of the given choices" vote, but it speaks to an appetite for change.

You need to also look towards the Winnipeg Citizens Coalition and while the WCC doesn't appear highly organized yet - for example, I doubt they could elect any councilor in any race on their organizational might alone - they do suggest that there's the beginnings of a decent organization that Judy could tap into. Organization matters, even in an "above the air" campaign such as mayoral elections in Winnipeg. I'm less than convinced that Mayor Katz has enough key organizational benchmarks met six months out. The new hire at city hall does suggest some "time to pull up the pants" initiative, but we'll see where that goes.

Finally, I expect that the provincial NDP, tired of getting some shots from Sam over the last few months, will decide to actively throw their machine behind Judy.

Now the safe prediction - the easy prediction - is to say that Sam wins and Judy might make it close enough to make him work for it, but that she'll fall short. It would be easy to rely on "What always happens" and just run with it.

But there's no fun in that.

So here's the thing: I am predicting that Judy wins in October (with some caveats).

They would be that Judy has no major stumbles, that some new strange issue doesn't enter the current fray, and that at some point during the campaign, Judy gets under Sam's skin and he does or says something mean and something insulting. He's got a mean streak in him and a tendency to personalize. That reads to me as a good situation where he could lose a lot of the female vote in the city should the right (or wrong) thing is said.

We'll see how the campaign goes. I'll be sitting the mayoral one out. Can't stand Mayor Katz, but can't outright support Judy either. The idea of her negotiating with city unions scares me.

So I'll pick a handful of council and school board races and get involved there. Jeff Browaty, Grant Nordman and Scott Fielding for sure. I know all three personally and try to go to bat for friends. I'm sure there'll be a couple more along the way as the situation presents itself. (BTW, any good right of centre candidates coming forward for my home ward of River Heights/Fort Garry?)

Posted by The Hack at Wednesday, April 28, 2010 | Permalink | Comments

Tuesday, February 23

Twitter

Been experimenting with Twitter for something else and nearing 100 posts in, I've decided to keep it. Not quite blogging - and not quite interesting yet - but once the true political machines start gearing up again I should be somewhat useful to follow if you are into that kinda thing.

@hacksandwonks

Posted by The Hack at Tuesday, February 23, 2010 | Permalink | Comments

Tuesday, December 15

On "Hard Work"

When a politician gets in front of a group of supporters and tells them:

"We have to be prepared to work hard if we want to be elected,"

...that politician is never talking about the hard work involved in convincing voters that sometimes a difficult policy is still a good idea.

Am I wrong in thinking that maybe that type of "hard work" is maybe a bit more important in the grand scale of electoral victories than ten extra lawn signs or another hour of phone blitzing?

Posted by The Hack at Tuesday, December 15, 2009 | Permalink | Comments